基于非等间距泊松曲线在沉降预测中的应用

泊松曲线是一种精度较高的沉降预测方法，但是它只能在等时距数据条件下方能使用，在工程实际中很难满足这一要求。本文采用插值法将非等时距数据转化成等时距数列，并结合高层建筑沉降监测工程实例分析，结果表明，用泊松曲线模型预测建筑物沉降量与实际沉降量比较接近，具有较高的应用价值。     

长江三峡库区梯田稳定性分析与对策*──以鄂西秭归县为例

三峡库区历史上就是滑坡、崩塌作用强烈的地带,在调查分析秭归县滑坡、崩塌对梯田稳定性的影响的基础上,探讨了四种不稳定梯田培坎的特征、性质和现状,提出了利用优势植物固土护坎等相应的对策。     

Housing privatization and the return of the state: changing governance in China

Housing privatization seems to suggest a process of state retreat. However, this is not always the case in China. This paper examines an estate that is mixed with work-unit housing and municipal public housing to understand its changing governance. It is intriguing to observe that the state has had to return to this neighborhood to strengthen its administration following housing privatization, because the attempt to transfer responsibility to commercial property management failed. The neighborhood governance, however, has transformed from one based on work-units to a government-funded administrative agency. The return of the state has been achieved through professional social workers, and it is struggling to operate, leading to the alienation and disempowerment of former state work-unit residents. The side effect of this approach to governance is that, through encouraging market provision and commercial operation which is not fully working, reciprocal activities are restrained. Since housing privatization, the neighborhood has deteriorated from a brand-new estate into an ‘old and dilapidated neighborhood’ in less than 25 years.     

Subseasonal variability during the South China Sea summer monsoon onset

Analysis of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) data for the period 1998–2007 reveals large subseasonal fluctuations in sea surface temperature (SST) of the South China Sea during the summer monsoon onset. These subseasonal SST changes are closely related to surface heat flux anomalies induced by surface wind and cloud changes in association with the summer monsoon onset. The SST changes feed back on the atmosphere by modifying the atmospheric instability. The results suggest that the South China Sea summer monsoon onset involves ocean–atmosphere coupling on subseasonal timescales. While the SST response to surface heat flux changes is quick and dramatic, the time lag between the SST anomalies and the atmospheric convection response varies largely from year to year. The spatial–temporal evolution of subseasonal anomalies indicates that the subseasonal variability affecting the South China Sea summer monsoon onset starts over the equatorial western Pacific, propagates northward to the Philippine Sea, and then moves westward to the South China Sea. The propagation of these subseasonal anomalies is related to the ocean–atmosphere interaction, involving the wind-evaporation and cloud-radiation effects on SST as well as SST impacts on lower-level convergence over the equatorial western Pacific and atmospheric instability over the Philippine Sea and the South China Sea.     

中生代复杂构造体系的成矿过程与成矿作用——以华北大陆北缘西拉木伦钼铜多金属成矿带为例

西拉木伦钼铜多金属成矿带处于华北克拉通与中亚造山带的过渡区,是古生代古亚洲构造域与中生代西太平洋构造域的交汇部位。在中生代受多种构造体系的制约,如中亚造山带造山后期局部伸展、蒙古-鄂霍茨克俯冲-碰撞造山作用、古太平洋板块的向西俯冲和中国东部岩石圈减薄事件的影响等。西拉木伦成矿带成矿斑岩锆石U-Pb年龄和辉钼矿Re-Os同位素年龄资料显示,钼铜矿成岩成矿主要集中在260～220Ma、180～150Ma和140～120Ma三个时期。结合华北克拉通北缘构造演化历史,推测这三期成矿作用主要与造山后局部伸展、构造体系转折和陆内伸展(岩石圈减薄)过程有关,并相应建立了"车户沟式"、"鸡冠山式"和"敖伦花式"三类斑岩钼铜矿床成矿模式。进一步研究表明,岩石的酸碱性、岩浆来源、岩浆的氧逸度、岩浆演化方式、构造背景等因素,制约了成矿作用的专属性。     

河南省森林火险月季尺度定量客观化预测

基于火灾资料和气象资料,利用数理统计方法和百分位法,分析了河南省林区火灾的气候特征及防火关键期高火险日数的月、季气候特征。结果表明,林区火灾次数年际波动较大,主要出现在每年的冬春季(12月次年4月),3月出现的次数最多,2月的次之。火灾峰值主要出现在13-16时。3月高火险日数存在显著增加的线性趋势,12月和1月高火险日数呈现先减少后增加的趋势。2月和4月高火险日数处在偏少的年代际背景下。林区春季高火险日数存在显著增加的线性趋势,在桐柏-大别山林区尤其明显。选取河南省防火关键期各月、季高火险日数与海温、积雪、环流场等130项环流指数的相关关系最好的因子,利用最优子集回归分别建立基于林区内各个气象站点的预测方程。通过回代检验和趋势异常综合评分(Ps),对回归方程预测效果进行检验,结果显示,回代曲线和历史曲线吻合好,表明预测方程预测结果接近实况。     

探测仪器特性曲线异常分析

探测仪器感应曲线发生变化,造成升速异常、等压面的温度、湿度错误、雷达〖CD*2〗气压高差偏大、时间〖CD*2〗高度线曲变化异常造成的规定高度上的风误差偏大,使部分资料或整份资料失真,影响探测准确性。本文主要从仪器的感应曲线变化后对各气象要素产生的影响进行分析,得出结论：不同的元件变性对气象要素产生的影响不同,气压变化的影响侧重于高差和升速,温度变化则侧重于规定等压面的温度绝对误差和规定等压面高度的偏差。采用绝对误差计算、加密气象要素计算等方法,结合图形、数据对比,可以确定感应曲线变化时间,从而及时、有效的对探测数据做出合适的处理,进一步提高探测数据的精准度。     

塔中地区志留系碎屑锆石测年及其地质意义

志留系是塔里木盆地第一套砂岩储层广泛分布的沉积盖层,其沉积来源与成因对志留纪构造演化及周边造山带的研究具有重要意义。塔中地区3个志留系样品的碎屑锆石LA?ICP?MS U?Pb定年研究表明,志留系具有比较集中的二期物源年龄：南华纪中期、古元古代中期。碎屑锆石测定的年龄表明塔中志留系物源均来自前寒武纪,塔中东部源区方向的塔南隆起基底在奥陶纪已隆升成为蚀源区。大量的新元古代中期锆石年龄表明塔里木板块在新元古代时期可能与Rodinia超大陆具有相似的聚合与裂解演化史。     

青藏高原地区地表温度及其取值对大气长波辐射冷却的影响

针对辐射传输模式在青藏高原地区的应用问题，使用Ｌｉｏｕ－Ｏｕ一维辐射传输模式及１９８２年８月￣１９８３年７月青藏高原热源观测实验期间青藏高原地面、高空与卫星观测资料，在高原辐射传输模式中区分了下垫面温度与地表空气温度的作用，并利用卫星观测资料对模式改进后的实际效果进行了验证；分析了地表温度的日变化和季节变化硬度，得到了下垫面温度的简单参数化方法。     

内蒙古银额盆地哈日凹陷下白垩统碎屑锆石U-Pb测年及其物源意义*

前人认为银额盆地下白垩统物源主要来自凹陷周缘的造山带或凸起区,但对于下白垩统的物源具体属于何套地层、确切源区位置等问题,并未开展过相关研究。笔者以哈日凹陷为例,通过对该凹陷下白垩统8个沉积岩样品开展地球化学和碎屑锆石U-Pb年代学研究,以期解决以上问题。研究结果表明: (1)碎屑锆石按年龄可以分为三叠纪锆石、二叠纪锆石、石炭纪锆石和古老锆石4类,对应的年龄分别为$237.9\pm3.2\pm-238.3\pm8.4$ Ma, $255.0\pm9.7-285.9\pm4.3$ Ma, $307.0\pm23.0-330.0\pm3.0$ Ma and $434.0\pm4.0-2584.0\pm14.0$ Ma 。(2)微量元素和锆石年龄组成特征表明,下白垩统以二叠系和石炭系物源供给为主,包括二叠纪和石炭纪侵入岩和沉积岩。(3)锆石年龄分布指示哈日凹陷下白垩统物源具有多源区的特征,凹陷西北部的洪格尔吉山、南部的宗乃山和东部的切刀山对其均有物源贡献。(4)3个物源区对巴音戈壁组和苏红图组的物源贡献率具有一定的差异,如宗乃山地区对苏红图组有较大的物源贡献率,这种差异可能由沉积物迁移距离、源区地质体剥蚀速率、构造运动等原因所致。下白垩统物源特征的确定,对于恢复哈日凹陷早白垩世原型盆地、建立早白垩世沉积古地理模型等均具有重要的意义。