Climate change impacts on pricing long-term flood insurance: A comprehensive study for the Netherlands

Recently long-term flood insurance contracts with a duration of 5, 10 or 15 years have been proposed as a solution for covering flood risk and mitigating increasing flood losses. Establishing a long-term relation between the policyholder and the insurer can provide better incentives to reduce risk through undertaking damage mitigation measures. However, the uncertainty about the development of future flood risk in the face of climate and socio-economic change may complicate insurers’ rate-setting of long-term contracts. This issue has been examined in this study by estimating the effects of these changes on flood risk and pricing flood insurance premiums of short- and long-term flood insurance contracts in all (53) dike-ring areas in the Netherlands. A broad range of simulations with hydrological and flood damage models are used to estimate the future development of flood risk and premiums. In addition, the long-term development of insurance funds is estimated with a spatial “Climate Risk Insurance Model (CRIM)” for a private insurance arrangement and for a ‘three-layered’ public-private insurance program. The estimation of flood insurance premiums of long-term insurance contracts reveals fundamental problems. One is that there is an incentive for either the consumer or the insurer to prefer short-term rather than long-term contracts in the face of climate-related uncertainty. Therefore, it seems advisable to examine the introduction of one-year flood insurance contracts in the Netherlands, at least until the large uncertainties with climate and socio-economic change on flood risk have been resolved. The estimations performed with the Climate Risk Insurance Model indicate that a private insurance fund could have difficulties with building up enough financial reserves to pay for flood damage, while the layered public-private insurance scheme is more robust.     

On the potential of plant species invasion influencing bio‐geomorphologic landscape formation in salt marshes

Species invasions are known to change biotic and abiotic ecosystem characteristics such as community structure, cycling of materials and dynamics of rivers. However, their ability to alter interactions between biotic and abiotic ecosystem components, in particular bio‐geomorphic feedbacks and the resulting landscape configuration in tidal wetlands, such as tidal channels have not yet been demonstrated. We studied the impact of altered bio‐geomorphic feedbacks on geomorphologic features (i.e. tidal wetland channels), by comparing proxies for channel network geometry (unchanneled flow lengths, fractal dimension) over time between non‐invaded and invaded salt marsh habitats. The non‐invaded habitats (the south of eastern Chongming Island, Yangtze estuary, China) show little change in network geometry over time with a tendency for an increased drainage density. The invaded site (salt marshes in the north of eastern Chongming Island invaded by the exotic plant species Spartina alterniflora) showed a decreasing tendency in channel drainage density throughout and after the species invasion. This suggests that species invasions might not only affect biotic ecosystem characteristics, but also their ability to change bio‐geomorphic feedback loops, potentially leading to changes in existing geomorphologic features and therefore landscape configuration. Our results further suggest that the species invasion also altered sediment composition. Based on observations we propose a mechanism explaining the change in channel drainage density by an alteration in plant properties. The physical and physiological characteristics of the invading species Spartina alterniflora clearly differ from the native species Scirpus mariqueter, inducing different bio‐geomorphic feedback loops leading to the observed change in salt marsh channel configuration. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Network concepts to describe channel importance and change in multichannel systems: test results for the Jamuna River,Bangladesh

Most of the largest rivers on Earth have multiple active channels connected at bifurcations and confluences. At present a method to describe a channel network pattern and changes in the network beyond the simplistic braiding index is unavailable. Our objectives are to test a network approach to understand the character, stability and evolution of a multi‐channel river pattern under natural discharge conditions. We developed a semi‐automatic method to derive a chain‐like directional network from images that represent the multi‐channel river and to connect individual network elements through time. The Jamuna River was taken as an example with a series of Landsat TM and ETM+ images taken at irregular intervals between 1999 and 2004. We quantified the overall importance of individual channels in the entire network using a centrality property. Centrality showed that three reaches can be distinguished along the Jamuna with a different network character: the middle reach has dominantly one important channel, while upstream and downstream there are about two important channels. Temporally, relatively few channels changed dramatically in both low‐flow and high‐flow periods despite the increase of braiding index during a flood. Based on the centrality we calculated a weighted braiding index that represents the number of important channels in the network, which is about two in the Jamuna River and which is larger immediately after floods. We conclude that the network measure centrality provides a novel characterization of river channel networks, highlighting properties and tendencies that have morphological significance. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Energy balance closure for the LITFASS-2003 experiment

In the first part, this paper synthesises the main results from a series of previous studies on the closure of the local energy balance at low-vegetation sites during the LITFASS-2003 experiment. A residual of up to 25% of the available energy has been found which cannot be fully explained either by the measurement uncertainty of the single components of the surface energy balance or by the length of the flux-averaging period. In the second part, secondary circulations due to heterogeneities in the surface characteristics (roughness, thermal and moisture properties) are discussed as a possible cause for the observed energy balance non-closure. This hypothesis seems to be supported from the fluxes derived from area-averaging measurement techniques (scintillometers, aircraft).     

Nodal and Mixed Finite Elements for the Numerical Homogenization of 3D Permeability

The aim of upscaling is to determine equivalent homogeneous parameters at a coarse-scale from a spatially oscillating fine-scale parameter distribution. To be able to use a limited number of relatively large grid-blocks in numerical oil reservoir simulators or groundwater models, upscaling of the permeability is frequently applied. The spatial fine-scale permeability distribution is generally obtained from geological and geostatistical models. After upscaling, the coarse-scale permeabilities are incorporated in the relatively large grid-blocks of the numerical model. If the porous rock may be approximated as a periodic medium, upscaling can be performed by the method of homogenization. In this paper the homogenization is performed numerically, which gives rise to an approximation error. The complementarity between two different numerical methods – the conformal-nodal finite element method and the mixed-hybrid finite element method – has been used to quantify this error. These two methods yield respectively upper and lower bounds for the eigenvalues of the coarse-scale permeability tensor. Results of 3D numerical experiments are shown, both for the far field and around wells.     

Numerical Homogenization of the Rigidity Tensor in Hooke''s Law Using the Node-Based Finite Element Method

Combining a geological model with a geomechanical model, it generally turns out that the geomechanical model is built from units that are at least a 100 times larger in volume than the units of the geological model. To counter this mismatch in scales, the geological data model's heterogeneous fine-scale Young's moduli and Poisson's ratios have to be upscaled to one equivalent homogeneous coarse-scale rigidity. This coarse-scale rigidity relates the volume-averaged displacement, strain, stress, and energy to each other, in such a way that the equilibrium equation, Hooke's law, and the energy equation preserve their fine-scale form on the coarse scale. Under the simplifying assumption of spatial periodicity of the heterogeneous fine-scale rigidity, homogenization theory can be applied. However, even then the spatial variability is generally so complex that exact solutions cannot be found. Therefore, numerical approximation methods have to be applied. Here the node-based finite element method for the displacement as primary variable has been used. Three numerical examples showing the upper bound character of this finite element method are presented.     

Processes of normal fault evolution in a siliciclastic sequence: a case study from Miri, Sarawak, Malaysia

Detailed field observations of normal faults formed at shallow depth in a deltaic sand–clay sequence near Miri, Sarawak are used to study the main structural elements during the early stages of fault development. We studied over 450 segmented faults, many of which contain clay smear, in an excellent outcrop exposing a collapsed crest structure.In agreement with previous studies we find that important elements of fault zone evolution are: (i) clay smear, (ii) telescoping on parallel strands, and (iii) preferred deformation of fault-bounded lenses. We model the consequences of telescoping on parallel strands and conclude that the reliability of juxtaposition diagrams can decrease dramatically in the presence of undetected multiple fault strands. The across fault connectivity can either increase or decrease depending on small variations in many of the input parameters.All the faults studied have a continuous clay smear over the interval studied, except for the places where a sand bed has an offset smaller than its thickness, and therefore has not moved past clay. Although on average the clay content observed correlates well with the average clay content of the faulted section, there are large variations in clay content controlled by local complexity in deformation. Understanding of this local complexity is a prerequisite for further improvement of clay smear in the subsurface.     

Origin and evolution of high-salinity, Zn–Pb mineralising fluids in the Variscides of Belgium

High-salinity, Na–Ca–Cl-rich fluids (˜20 wt% salts) in inclusions in gangue and ore minerals from Mesozoic Mississippi Valley-type (MVT) deposits in the Verviers Synclinorium (eastern Belgium) and in Cretaceous vein calcites at the Variscan front were investigated by microthermometric and crush-leach analysis. The MVT deposits formed at temperatures of ˜110 °C while the Cretaceous vein calcites were precipitated at temperatures <50 °C. Their Cl–Br content (Cl/Br ratio between 246 and 458) suggests that the fluids probably originated by the evaporation of seawater during basin development at the southern margin of the Caledonian Brabant Massif in the Late Palaeozoic. The Na–Ca–K content (Na: 29,700–49,600 ppm, Ca: 25,700–46,200 ppm, K: 1,000–5,620 ppm) is similar to that of the mineralising fluids in other Pb–Zn districts, interpreted to be of evaporative origin (e.g. Newfoundland, East Tennessee, Polaris). Furthermore, comparison of the Na–Ca–K content of the fluids with that of an evolved evaporitic brine enables the recognition of major water–rock interactions that modified the fluid composition. It indicates that the ambient fluids participated in the early diagenetic dolomitisation of Upper Palaeozoic carbonates and also in the albitisation of plagioclase in Lower Palaeozoic siliciclastics of the Caledonian basement. Illitisation of smectites or dissolution of K-feldspar probably controlled the K-content of the fluids. A model is proposed where the bittern brines migrated down into the deep subsurface because of their density during extension. After the Variscan orogeny, these fluids were finally expelled along extensional faults, resulting in the formation of Zn–Pb deposits. Received: 26 April 2000 / Accepted: 22 November 2000