Going to extremes: propositions on the social response to severe climate change

The growing literature on potentially-dangerous climate change is examined and research on human response to natural hazards is analyzed to develop propositions on social response pathways likely to emerge in the face of increasingly severe climate change. A typology of climate change severity is proposed and the potential for mal-adaptive responses examined. Elements of a warning system for severe climate change are briefly considered.     

Unique isoprene oxidation products demonstrate chlorine atom chemistry occurs in the Houston,Texas urban area

As part of the 2000 Texas Air Quality Study (TexAQS), we studied the isoprene oxidation process under ambient conditions to discern the presence of chlorine atom (Cl) chemistry in the Houston, Texas urban area. By measuring chloromethylbutenone (CMBO) and an isomer of chloromethylbutenal (CMBA), we clearly observed sixteen episodes of active Cl chemistry during the 24-day experiment. Estimated median Cl concentration during each of these episodes was between the detection limit of ~10² atoms cm⁻³ and 50 _{- 30} ^{+ 70} ×10⁴ 50_{ - 30}^{ + 70} \times {10^4} atoms cm⁻³. Cl concentration during all the episodes averaged 7.6 _{- 2.0} ^{+ 4.7} ×10⁴ 7.6_{ - 2.0}^{ + 4.7} \times {10^4} atoms cm⁻³ and thus amounted to less than 3% of the OH concentration during the same periods. During the episodes, the fraction of oxidation chemistry initiated by Cl ranged from 3–43% and was strongly dependent on the quantity and type of hydrocarbons present in the atmosphere. Because of its intermittent presence and low concentration, Cl is not a broadly influential oxidant in the Houston, Texas urban area.     

Implementation of a non-hydrostatic, adaptive-grid dynamics core in CAM3. Part I: comparison of dynamics cores in aqua-planet simulations

We report on our implementation of EULAG as a dynamical core in the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM). EULAG is a non-hydrostatic, parallel computational model for all-scale geophysical flows. EULAG’s name derives from its two computational options: EULerian (flux form) or semi-LAGrangian (advective form). The model combines nonoscillatory forward-in-time (NFT) numerical algorithms with a robust elliptic Krylov solver. A signature feature of EULAG is that it is formulated in generalized coordinates. In particular, this enables grid adaptivity. In total, these features give EULAG novel advantages over the existing dynamical cores in CAM. This paper uses a series of aqua-planet simulations to demonstrate that CAM-EULAG results compare favorably with those from CAM simulations at standard CAM resolution that use current finite volume or Eulerian-spectral dynamical core options. We also show that the grid adaptivity implemented in CAM3-EULAG allows higher resolution in selected regions without causing anomalous behavior such as spurious wave reflection.     

Asteroidal source of L chondrite meteorites

Establishing connections between meteorites and their parent asteroids is an important goal of planetary science. Several links have been proposed in the past, including a spectroscopic match between basaltic meteorites and (4) Vesta, that are helping scientists understand the formation and evolution of the Solar System bodies. Here we show that the shocked L chondrite meteorites, which represent about two thirds of all L chondrite falls, may be fragments of a disrupted asteroid with orbital semimajor axis a=2.8 AU. This breakup left behind thousands of identified 1–15 km asteroid fragments known as the Gefion family. Fossil L chondrite meteorites and iridium enrichment found in an ≈467 Ma old marine limestone quarry in southern Sweden, and perhaps also ∼5 large terrestrial craters with corresponding radiometric ages, may be tracing the immediate aftermath of the family-forming collision when numerous Gefion fragments evolved into the Earth-crossing orbits by the 5:2 resonance with Jupiter. This work has major implications for our understanding of the source regions of ordinary chondrite meteorites because it implies that they can sample more distant asteroid material than was previously thought possible.     

Asteroids were born big

How big were the first planetesimals? We attempt to answer this question by conducting coagulation simulations in which the planetesimals grow by mutual collisions and form larger bodies and planetary embryos. The size frequency distribution (SFD) of the initial planetesimals is considered a free parameter in these simulations, and we search for the one that produces at the end objects with a SFD that is consistent with Asteroid belt constraints. We find that, if the initial planetesimals were small (e.g. km-sized), the final SFD fails to fulfill these constraints. In particular, reproducing the bump observed at diameter in the current SFD of the asteroids requires that the minimal size of the initial planetesimals was also ∼100 km. This supports the idea that planetesimals formed big, namely that the size of solids in the proto-planetary disk “jumped” from sub-meter scale to multi-kilometer scale, without passing through intermediate values. Moreover, we find evidence that the initial planetesimals had to have sizes ranging from 100 to several 100 km, probably even 1000 km, and that their SFD had to have a slope over this interval that was similar to the one characterizing the current asteroids in the same size range. This result sets a new constraint on planetesimal formation models and opens new perspectives for the investigation of the collisional evolution in the Asteroid and Kuiper belts as well as of the accretion of the cores of the giant planets.     

Lander radioscience for obtaining the rotation and orientation of Mars

The paper presents the concept, the objectives, the approach used, and the expected performances and accuracies of a radioscience experiment based on a radio link between the Earth and the surface of Mars. This experiment involves radioscience equipment installed on a lander at the surface of Mars. The experiment with the generic name lander radioscience (LaRa) consists of an X-band transponder that has been designed to obtain, over at least one Martian year, two-way Doppler measurements from the radio link between the ExoMars lander and the Earth (ExoMars is an ESA mission to Mars due to launch in 2013). These Doppler measurements will be used to obtain Mars’ orientation in space and rotation (precession and nutations, and length-of-day variations). More specifically, the relative position of the lander on the surface of Mars with respect to the Earth ground stations allows reconstructing Mars’ time varying orientation and rotation in space.Precession will be determined with an accuracy better by a factor of 4 (better than the 0.1% level) with respect to the present-day accuracy after only a few months at the Martian surface. This precession determination will, in turn, improve the determination of the moment of inertia of the whole planet (mantle plus core) and the radius of the core: for a specific interior composition or even for a range of possible compositions, the core radius is expected to be determined with a precision decreasing to a few tens of kilometers.A fairly precise measurement of variations in the orientation of Mars’ spin axis will enable, in addition to the determination of the moment of inertia of the core, an even better determination of the size of the core via the core resonance in the nutation amplitudes. When the core is liquid, the free core nutation (FCN) resonance induces a change in the nutation amplitudes, with respect to their values for a solid planet, at the percent level in the large semi-annual prograde nutation amplitude and even more (a few percent, a few tens of percent or more, depending on the FCN period) for the retrograde ter-annual nutation amplitude. The resonance amplification depends on the size, moment of inertia, and flattening of the core. For a large core, the amplification can be very large, ensuring the detection of the FCN, and determination of the core moment of inertia.The measurement of variations in Mars’ rotation also determines variations of the angular momentum due to seasonal mass transfer between the atmosphere and ice caps. Observations even for a short period of 180 days at the surface of Mars will decrease the uncertainty by a factor of two with respect to the present knowledge of these quantities (at the 10% level).The ultimate objectives of the proposed experiment are to obtain information on Mars’ interior and on the sublimation/condensation of CO₂ in Mars’ atmosphere. Improved knowledge of the interior will help us to better understand the formation and evolution of Mars. Improved knowledge of the CO₂ sublimation/condensation cycle will enable better understanding of the circulation and dynamics of Mars’ atmosphere.     

A Century of Solar Ca <Emphasis Type="SmallCaps">ii</Emphasis> Measurements and Their Implication for Solar UV Driving of Climate

Spectroheliograms and disk-integrated flux monitoring in the strong resonance line of Ca ii (K line) provide the longest record of chromospheric magnetic plages. We compare recent reductions of the Ca ii K spectroheliograms obtained since 1907 at the Kodaikanal, Mt. Wilson, and US National Solar Observatories. Certain differences between the individual plage indices appear to be caused mainly by differences in the spectral passbands used. Our main finding is that the indices show remarkably consistent behavior on the multidecadal time scales of greatest interest to global warming studies. The reconstruction of solar ultraviolet flux variation from these indices differs significantly from the 20th-century global temperature record. This difference is consistent with other findings that, although solar UV irradiance variation may affect climate through influence on precipitation and storm tracks, its significance in global temperature remains elusive.     

Equilibrium H/H fractionations in organic molecules: I. Experimental calibration of ab initio calculations

Carbon-bound hydrogen in sedimentary organic matter can undergo exchange over geologic timescales, altering its isotopic composition. Studies investigating the natural abundance distribution of ¹H and ²H in such molecules must account for this exchange, which in turn requires quantitative knowledge regarding the endpoint of exchange, i.e., the equilibrium isotopic fractionation factor (α_eq). To date, relevant data have been lacking for molecules larger than methane. Here we describe an experimental method to measure α_eq for C-bound H positions adjacent to carbonyl group (H_α) in ketones. H at these positions equilibrates on a timescale of days as a result of keto-enol tautomerism, allowing equilibrium ²H/¹H distributions to be indirectly measured. Molecular vibrations for the same ketone molecules are then computed using Density Functional Theory at the B3LYP/6-311G** level and used to calculate α_eq values for H_α. Comparison of experimental and computational results for six different straight and branched ketones yields a temperature-dependent linear calibration curve with slope = 1.081−0.00376T and intercept = 8.404−0.387T, where T is temperature in degrees Celsius. Since the dominant systematic error in the calculation (omission of anharmonicity) is of the same size for ketones and C-bound H in most other linear compounds, we propose that this calibration can be applied to analogous calculations for a wide variety of organic molecules with linear carbon skeletons for temperatures below 100 °C. In a companion paper (Wang et al., 2009) we use this new calibration dataset to calculate the temperature-dependent equilibrium isotopic fractionation factors for a range of linear hydrocarbons, alcohols, ethers, ketones, esters and acids.     

A chemical and thermodynamic model of oil generation in hydrocarbon source rocks

Thermodynamic calculations and Gibbs free energy minimization computer experiments strongly support the hypothesis that kerogen maturation and oil generation are inevitable consequences of oxidation/reduction disproportionation reactions caused by prograde metamorphism of hydrocarbon source rocks with increasing depth of burial.These experiments indicate that oxygen and hydrogen are conserved in the process.Accordingly, if water is stable and present in the source rock at temperatures ?25 but ?100 °C along a typical US Gulf Coast geotherm, immature (reduced) kerogen with a given atomic hydrogen to carbon ratio (H/C) melts incongruently with increasing temperature and depth of burial to produce a metastable equilibrium phase assemblage consisting of naphthenic/biomarker-rich crude oil, a type-II/III kerogen with an atomic hydrogen/carbon ratio (H/C) of ∼1, and water. Hence, this incongruent melting process promotes diagenetic reaction of detritus in the source rock to form authigenic mineral assemblages.However, in the water-absent region of the system CHO (which is extensive), any water initially present or subsequently entering the source rock is consumed by reaction with the most mature kerogen with the lowest H/C it encounters to form CO₂ gas and a new kerogen with higher H/C and O/C, both of which are in metastable equilibrium with one another.This hydrolytic disproportionation process progressively increases both the concentration of the solute in the aqueous phase, and the oil generation potential of the source rock; i.e., the new kerogen can then produce more crude oil.Petroleum is generated with increasing temperature and depth of burial of hydrocarbon source rocks in which water is not stable in the system CHO by a series of irreversible disproportionation reactions in which kerogens with higher (H/C)s melt incongruently to produce metastable equilibrium assemblages consisting of crude oil, CO₂ gas, and a more mature (oxidized) kerogen with a lower H/C which in turn melts incongruently with further burial to produce more crude oil, CO₂ gas, and a kerogen with a lower H/C and so forth.The petroleum generated in the process progresses from heavy naphthenic crude oils at low temperatures to mature petroleum at ∼150 °C. For example, the results of Computer Experiment 27 (see below) indicate that the overall incongruent melting reaction in the water-absent region of the system C-H-O at 150 °C and a depth of ∼4.3 km of an immature type-II/III kerogen with a bulk composition represented by C₂₉₂H₂₈₈O_12(c) to produce a mature (oxidized) kerogen represented by C₁₂₈H₆₈O_7(c), together with a typical crude oil with an average metastable equilibrium composition corresponding to C_8.8H_16.9 (C_8.8H_16.9(l)) and CO₂ gas (CO_2(g)) can be described by writing

(A)     

Electronic environments in carrollite, CuCo2S4, determined by soft X-ray photoelectron and absorption spectroscopy

Fracture surfaces of a natural carrollite specimen have been characterised by synchrotron and conventional X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy and near-edge X-ray absorption spectroscopy. For the synchrotron X-ray measurements, the mineral surfaces were prepared under clean ultra high vacuum and were unoxidised. The characterisation was undertaken primarily to establish unequivocally the oxidation state of the Cu in the mineral, but also to obtain information on the electronic environments of the Co and S, and on the surface species. Experimental and simulated Cu L_2,3-edge absorption spectra confirmed an oxidation state of Cu^I, while Co 2p photoelectron and Co L_2,3 absorption spectra were largely consistent with the Co^III established previously by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. S 2p photoelectron spectra provided no evidence for S to be present in the bulk in more than one state, and were consistent with an oxidation state slightly less negative than S^-II. Therefore it was concluded that carrollite can be best represented by Cu^ICo^III₂(S₄)^-VII. The Cu^I oxidation state is in agreement with that expected for Cu tetrahedrally coordinated by S, but is in disagreement with the Cu^II deduced previously from some magnetic, magnetic resonance and Cu L-edge X-ray absorption spectroscopic measurements. A significant concentration of S species with core electron binding energies both lower and higher than the bulk value were formed at fracture surfaces, and these entities were assigned to monomeric and oligomeric surface S species. The density of Cu d states calculated for carrollite differed from that previously reported but was consistent with the observed Cu L₃ X-ray absorption spectrum. The initial oxidation of carrollite in air under ambient conditions was confirmed to be congruent, unlike the incongruent reaction undergone by a number of non-thiospinel sulfide minerals.