Challenges of an organizational approach to applied downtown market analysis

Downtowns are responding to decades of decline through a variety of revitalization strategies. The progression and success of downtown renewal efforts are largely rooted in asset-based, mixed-use approaches to revitalization that mirror the evolving economic functions of downtowns. While contemporary economic revitalization strategies provide opportunities, their complexity also creates potential challenges for community organizations tasked with determining the highest and best uses for downtown properties. Accordingly, this article examines how the evolution of downtown economic revitalization strategies has influenced the capacity and expertise required by organizations engaged in the endeavor of downtown market analysis. In particular, we identify applied market analysis challenges arising from organizational deficiencies in expertise, credibility, scope, and technology adoption and propose capacity building opportunities for overcoming these deficits.     

Application of a simple binary mixing model to the reconstruction of lead pollution sources in two Mississippi River floodplain lakes

A simple binary mixing model is used to determine the isotopic ratios of lead (Pb) pollution sources to a lake located near a smelter closed because of excessive Pb aerosols (Horseshoe Lake Madison County, Illinois, USA). As a control, we also examine a relatively unpolluted lake in a rural area of Southern Illinois (Horseshoe Lake Alexander County). Sediment cores were taken from both lakes and analyzed for Pb and Pb isotopes by ICP-MS. The mixing model shows that Madison County Horseshoe Lake had 3 different sources of Pb in its history. The first source is sediment from the Mississippi River with an intermediate ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb ratio (1.223 ± 0.009) which dominates inputs in pre-settlement times. From 1750 to 1933, the source of pollution Pb has the high ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb ratio (1.256 ± 0.005) characteristic of ore from the southeast Missouri Pb mines. The most recently deposited pollution Pb comes from a source with a low ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb ratio (1.202 ± 0.005). This source is similar in isotopic composition to pollution Pb found by several other investigators in the Eastern US and probably represents the mixture of ores used in modern industrial processes. It is unclear from the isotopic composition whether this source at Horseshoe Lake is the local Pb smelter or vehicle exhaust. The sediment core from Horseshoe Lake, Alexander County, shows a less variable isotopic composition. The binary mixing model showed a source composition of 1.225 ± 0.003 before 1850 and 1.231 ± 0.003 after this date. The change does not indicate a pollution source, but may be a shift in the sources of natural sediment with slightly different isotopic ratios to the lake. Our results show the value of simple binary mixing models to reconstruct the isotopic composition of Pb sources to lakes.     

Assessing market and non-market costs of freshwater flooding due to climate change in the community of Fredericton, Eastern Canada

There is a general consensus that climate change will increase the frequency and severity of freshwater flooding in many parts of the world. Communities prone to such flooding have struggled to understand the manner in which this will affect them (in both economic and social terms) and the appropriate way to adapt. In this study, we conduct a case-study investigation into the costs of freshwater flooding due to climate change along the Saint John River in Fredericton, NB, Canada. We develop a four-step framework that combines extreme event analysis, downscaled general circulation models, hydrologic analysis, and the contingent valuation method. Using this framework, together with primary data on a 2005 flooding event, we estimate market and non-market annual average flood damage under a number of climate and population scenarios. We find that non-market costs can represent up to 50% of total household costs of flooding events, and 23–42% of the total costs of flooding due to climate change, depending on the different climate and population scenarios considered. Incorporating such costs into flood adaptation planning may substantially increase support for active adaptation activities, especially in ‘worst case’ climate scenarios.     

Higher precision estimates of regional polar warming by ensemble regression of climate model projections

This study presents projections of twenty-first century wintertime surface temperature changes over the high-latitude regions based on the third Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP3) multi-model ensemble. The state-dependence of the climate change response on the present day mean state is captured using a simple yet robust ensemble linear regression model. The ensemble regression approach gives different and more precise estimated mean responses compared to the ensemble mean approach. Over the Arctic in January, ensemble regression gives less warming than the ensemble mean along the boundary between sea ice and open ocean (sea ice edge). Most notably, the results show 3?°C less warming over the Barents Sea (~7?°C compared to ~10?°C). In addition, the ensemble regression method gives projections that are 30?% more precise over the Sea of Okhostk, Bering Sea and Labrador Sea. For the Antarctic in winter (July) the ensemble regression method gives 2?°C more warming over the Southern Ocean close to the Greenwich Meridian (~7?°C compared to ~5?°C). Projection uncertainty was almost half that of the ensemble mean uncertainty over the Southern Ocean between 30° W to 90° E and 30?% less over the northern Antarctic Peninsula. The ensemble regression model avoids the need for explicit ad hoc weighting of models and exploits the whole ensemble to objectively identify overly influential outlier models. Bootstrap resampling shows that maximum precision over the Southern Ocean can be obtained with ensembles having as few as only six climate models.     

A Note on Reviving the Goddard Satellite-Based Surface Turbulent Fluxes （GSSTF） Dataset

Accurate sea surface flux measurements are crucial for understanding the global water and energy cycles. The oceanic evaporation, which is a major component of the global oceanic fresh water flux, is useful for predicting oceanic circulation and transport. The global Goddard Satellite-based Surface Turbulent Fluxes Version-2 (GSSTF2; July 1987--December 2000) dateset that was officially released in 2001 has been widely used by scientific community for global energy and water cycle research, and regional and short period data analyses. We have recently been funded by NASA to resume processing the GSSTF dataset with an objective of continually producing a uniform dataset of sea surface turbulent fluxes, derived from remote sensing data. The dataset is to be reprocessed and brought up-to-date (GSSTF2b) using improved input datasets such as a recently upgraded NCEP/DOE sea surface temperature reanalysis, and an upgraded surface wind and microwave brightness temperature V6 dataset (Version 6) from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) produced by Remote Sensing Systems (RSS). A second new product (GSSTF3) is further proposed with a finer temporal (12-h) and spatial (0.25^ox0.25^o) resolution. GSSTF2b (July 1987--December 2008) and GSSTF3 (July 1999--December 2009) will be released for the research community to use by late 2009 and early 2011, respectively.     

Going to extremes: propositions on the social response to severe climate change

The growing literature on potentially-dangerous climate change is examined and research on human response to natural hazards is analyzed to develop propositions on social response pathways likely to emerge in the face of increasingly severe climate change. A typology of climate change severity is proposed and the potential for mal-adaptive responses examined. Elements of a warning system for severe climate change are briefly considered.     

Characterizing the zonally asymmetric component of the SH circulation

Much research concerning the Southern Hemisphere (SH) zonally asymmetric circulation has focused on the Pacific-South American mode (PSA) or the major zonal waves. However, these large-scale decompositions may mask important local variability. In this paper the month-to-month variability explained by the zonal waves 1 and 3 is examined, and an alternative representation of the SH circulation is presented based on two quasi-stationary anticyclones in the sub-Antarctic western hemisphere. These anticyclones are related to the zonal waves, but features of their variability are masked by the zonal wave decomposition; in particular, the anticyclones’ strengths are not positively covariant. They are also compared with the leading Principal Components of the SH atmosphere. We show that they capture variance independent of the Southern Annular Mode. Additionally, they explain a generally greater fraction of the variability than the PSA, and in a manner that also includes information regarding spatial variability. These results have implications for analysis of the atmospheric-forcing of western Antarctic climate.     

Unique isoprene oxidation products demonstrate chlorine atom chemistry occurs in the Houston,Texas urban area

As part of the 2000 Texas Air Quality Study (TexAQS), we studied the isoprene oxidation process under ambient conditions to discern the presence of chlorine atom (Cl) chemistry in the Houston, Texas urban area. By measuring chloromethylbutenone (CMBO) and an isomer of chloromethylbutenal (CMBA), we clearly observed sixteen episodes of active Cl chemistry during the 24-day experiment. Estimated median Cl concentration during each of these episodes was between the detection limit of ~10² atoms cm⁻³ and 50 _{- 30} ^{+ 70} ×10⁴ 50_{ - 30}^{ + 70} \times {10^4} atoms cm⁻³. Cl concentration during all the episodes averaged 7.6 _{- 2.0} ^{+ 4.7} ×10⁴ 7.6_{ - 2.0}^{ + 4.7} \times {10^4} atoms cm⁻³ and thus amounted to less than 3% of the OH concentration during the same periods. During the episodes, the fraction of oxidation chemistry initiated by Cl ranged from 3–43% and was strongly dependent on the quantity and type of hydrocarbons present in the atmosphere. Because of its intermittent presence and low concentration, Cl is not a broadly influential oxidant in the Houston, Texas urban area.     

Implementation of a non-hydrostatic, adaptive-grid dynamics core in CAM3. Part I: comparison of dynamics cores in aqua-planet simulations

We report on our implementation of EULAG as a dynamical core in the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM). EULAG is a non-hydrostatic, parallel computational model for all-scale geophysical flows. EULAG’s name derives from its two computational options: EULerian (flux form) or semi-LAGrangian (advective form). The model combines nonoscillatory forward-in-time (NFT) numerical algorithms with a robust elliptic Krylov solver. A signature feature of EULAG is that it is formulated in generalized coordinates. In particular, this enables grid adaptivity. In total, these features give EULAG novel advantages over the existing dynamical cores in CAM. This paper uses a series of aqua-planet simulations to demonstrate that CAM-EULAG results compare favorably with those from CAM simulations at standard CAM resolution that use current finite volume or Eulerian-spectral dynamical core options. We also show that the grid adaptivity implemented in CAM3-EULAG allows higher resolution in selected regions without causing anomalous behavior such as spurious wave reflection.     

Asteroidal source of L chondrite meteorites

Establishing connections between meteorites and their parent asteroids is an important goal of planetary science. Several links have been proposed in the past, including a spectroscopic match between basaltic meteorites and (4) Vesta, that are helping scientists understand the formation and evolution of the Solar System bodies. Here we show that the shocked L chondrite meteorites, which represent about two thirds of all L chondrite falls, may be fragments of a disrupted asteroid with orbital semimajor axis a=2.8 AU. This breakup left behind thousands of identified 1–15 km asteroid fragments known as the Gefion family. Fossil L chondrite meteorites and iridium enrichment found in an ≈467 Ma old marine limestone quarry in southern Sweden, and perhaps also ∼5 large terrestrial craters with corresponding radiometric ages, may be tracing the immediate aftermath of the family-forming collision when numerous Gefion fragments evolved into the Earth-crossing orbits by the 5:2 resonance with Jupiter. This work has major implications for our understanding of the source regions of ordinary chondrite meteorites because it implies that they can sample more distant asteroid material than was previously thought possible.