Long-Term Trends of Nutrients and Phytoplankton in Chesapeake Bay

Climate effects on hydrology impart high variability to water-quality properties, including nutrient loadings, concentrations, and phytoplankton biomass as chlorophyll-a (chl-a), in estuarine and coastal ecosystems. Resolving long-term trends of these properties requires that we distinguish climate effects from secular changes reflecting anthropogenic eutrophication. Here, we test the hypothesis that strong climatic contrasts leading to irregular dry and wet periods contribute significantly to interannual variability of mean annual values of water-quality properties using in situ data for Chesapeake Bay. Climate effects are quantified using annual freshwater discharge from the Susquehanna River together with a synoptic climatology for the Chesapeake Bay region based on predominant sea-level pressure patterns. Time series of water-quality properties are analyzed using historical (1945–1983) and recent (1984–2012) data for the bay adjusted for climate effects on hydrology. Contemporary monitoring by the Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) provides data for a period since mid-1984 that is significantly impacted by anthropogenic eutrophication, while historical data back to 1945 serve as historical context for a period prior to severe impairments. The generalized additive model (GAM) and the generalized additive mixed model (GAMM) are developed for nutrient loadings and concentrations (total nitrogen—TN, nitrate?+?nitrate—NO₂?+?NO₃) at the Susquehanna River and water-quality properties in the bay proper, including dissolved nutrients (NO₂?+?NO₃, orthophosphate—PO₄), chl-a, diffuse light attenuation coefficient (K _D (PAR)), and chl-a/TN. Each statistical model consists of a sum of nonlinear functions to generate flow-adjusted time series and compute long-term trends accounting for climate effects on hydrology. We present results identifying successive periods of (1) eutrophication ca. 1945–1980 characterized by approximately doubled TN and NO₂?+?NO₃ loadings, leading to increased chl-a and associated ecosystem impairments, and (2) modest decreases of TN and NO₂?+?NO₃ loadings from 1981 to 2012, signaling a partial reversal of nutrient over-enrichment. Comparison of our findings with long-term trends of water-quality properties for a variety of estuarine and coastal ecosystems around the world reveals that trends for Chesapeake Bay are weaker than for other systems subject to strenuous management efforts, suggesting that more aggressive actions than those undertaken to date will be required to counter anthropogenic eutrophication of this valuable resource.     

H2S fluxes from Mt. Etna, Stromboli, and Vulcano (Italy) and implications for the sulfur budget at volcanoes

We present here new measurements of sulfur dioxide and hydrogen sulfide emissions from Vulcano, Etna, and Stromboli (Italy), made by direct sampling at vents and by filter pack and ultraviolet spectroscopy in downwind plumes. Measurements at the F0 and FA fumaroles on Vulcano yielded SO₂/H₂S molar ratios of ≈0.38 and ≈1.4, respectively, from which we estimate an H₂S flux of 6 to 9 t · d⁻¹ for the summit crater. For Mt. Etna and Stromboli, we found SO₂/H₂S molar ratios of ≈20 and ≈15, respectively, which combined with SO₂ flux measurements, suggest H₂S emission rates of 50 to 113 t · d⁻¹ and 4 to 8 t · d⁻¹, respectively. We observe that “source” and plume SO₂/H₂S ratios at Vulcano are similar, suggesting that hydrogen sulfide is essentially inert on timescales of seconds to minutes. This finding has important implications for estimates of volcanic total sulfur budget at volcanoes since most existing measurements do not account for H₂S emission.     

The chemical compositions and surface structures of two roAp stars with lithium spots (HD 83368 and HD 60435)

The spectra of two roAp stars have been analyzed as part of a project to study lithium in magnetic Ap stars. Variability of the Li I 6708 Å resonance doublet and rare-earth lines was detected, which can be explained using an oblique rotator model with the lithium spots located at the magnetic poles. Synthetic spectra obtained at different rotational phases have yielded the first data on the atmospheric chemical compositions of these spotted stars. Using refined atomic data and the most complete line lists has enabled a detailed study of the spectra near the Li I 6708 Å line and computation of the Li I line profile taking into account the spotted distribution of the lithium over the stellar surfaces. The positions of two lithium spots and lithium abundances for each of the spots have been determined.     

Shallow‐water microbialite‐volcaniclastic facies association in the Cambro‐Ordovician Mt Windsor Subprovince,Australia

The Trooper Creek Formation is a mineralised submarine volcano‐sedimentary sequence in the Cambro‐Ordovician Seventy Mile Range Group, Queensland. Most of the Trooper Creek Formation accumulated in a below‐storm‐wave‐base setting. However, microbialites and fossiliferous quartz‐hematite ± magnetite lenses provide evidence for local shoaling to above fairweather wave‐base (typically 5–15 m). The microbialites comprise biogenic (oncolites, stromatolites) and volcanogenic (pumice, shards, crystal fragments) components. Microstructural elements of the bioherms and biostromes include upwardly branching stromatolites, which suggest that photosynthetic microorganisms were important in constructing the microbialites. Because the microbialites are restricted to a thin stratigraphic interval in the Trooper Creek area, shallow‐water environments are interpreted to have been spatially and temporarily restricted. The circumstances that led to local shoaling are recorded by the enclosing volcanic and sedimentary lithofacies. The microbialites are hosted by felsic syneruptive pumiceous turbidites and water‐settled fall deposits generated by explosive eruptions. The microbialite host rocks overlie a thick association (≤?300 m) of andesitic lithofacies that includes four main facies: coherent andesite and associated autoclastic breccia and peperite; graded andesitic scoria breccia (scoriaceous sediment gravity‐flow deposits); fluidal clast‐rich andesitic breccia (water‐settled fall and sediment gravity‐flow deposits); and cross‐stratified andesitic sandstone and breccia (traction‐current deposits). The latter three facies consist of poorly vesicular blocky fragments, scoriaceous clasts (10–90%), and up to 10% fluidally shaped clasts. The fluidal clasts are interpreted as volcanic bombs. Clast shapes and textures in the andesitic volcaniclastic facies association imply that fragmentation occurred through a combination of fire fountaining and Strombolian activity, and a large proportion of the pyroclasts disintegrated due to quenching and impacts. Rapid syneruptive, near‐vent aggradation of bombs, scoria, and quench‐fragmented clasts probably led to temporary shoaling, so that subsequent felsic volcaniclastic facies and microbialites were deposited in shallow water. When subsidence outpaced aggradation, the depositional setting at Trooper Creek returned to being relatively deep marine.     

Interpreting tracer breakthrough tailing in a conduit-dominated karstic aquifer

Breakthrough tailing has been observed during dye-tracing recovery tests in the Norville aquifer system (chalk), France. Karst-conduit flow and transport parameters were assessed using two different interpretative methods: the linear graphical method and the Chatwin method (implemented in the Qtracer2 program). The linear graphical method was used to model the observed tailing effects, which was explained by a second smaller delayed breakthrough curve. By comparing the results of tracer-test interpretation for the two methods, it was possible to relate the area of this second curve to the importance of turbulent flow in spring discharge. The more turbulent the flow, the less important the contribution of the second breakthrough curve and the tailing effect. The observed tailing could possibly be controlled by hydrodynamics to a greater extent than usually expected, the tailing effects being mostly attributed to diffusion phenomena. Tailing effects were expected to increase with discharge and the piezometric level, which would have resulted in overpressure in conduits, fissure flooding, etc. Instead, breakthrough tailing tended to disappear with increasing aquifer discharge, which would support the hypothesis of there being mostly hydrodynamic-controlled tailing effects instead of matrix- or fissure-diffusion.An erratum to this article can be found at     

The disruption of planetary satellites and the creation of planetary rings

The Voyager spacecraft discovered that small moons orbit within all four observed ring systems coincident with the discovery of narrow and dusty rings around Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune. These moons can provide the source for new rings if they are catastrophically disrupted by a comet or large meteoroid impact. This hypothesis for ring origins provides a natural mechanism for the ongoing creation of planetary rings. While it relieves somewhat the problem of explaining the continued existence of rings with apparently short evolutionary lifetimes, it raises the problem of explaining the continued existence of small moons, and the coexistence of moons and rings at comparable locations within the Roche zones of the giant planets. This problem has been studied in some detail recently, and the present work is a review of our current understanding of the processes in satellite disruption that pertain to the creation of planetary rings and the collisional cascade of circumplanetary bodies. Significant progress has been made. Narrow rings are produced by disruption of small moons in numerical simulations, and a self-consistent model of the collisional cascade can explain present-day moon populations. Absolute timescales and initial moon populations remain uncertain due to our poor knowledge of the impactor population and uncertainties in the strength of planetary satellites. More pressing are the qualitative issues that remain to be resolved including the nature of reaccretion of the debris and the origin of Saturn's rings.     

On ensemble representation of the observation-error covariance in the Ensemble Kalman Filter

Evensen (2003) presents a modification of the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), in which the observation-error and background-error covariance matrices are both represented by ensembles, in contrast to the usual practice, where only the background error is so represented. It is shown that this modification can cause the ensemble to collapse to a single member, in the common situation where the number of observations is more than twice the number of ensemble members, and to be rank-deficient when the number of observations is greater than or equal to the ensemble size. It is also shown that some further modifications to the scheme, presented by Evensen as offering numerical efficiencies, can prevent this collapse. However, these latter modifications are shown in some simple numerical examples to require tuning to produce acceptable results, which are nevertheless inferior to those of the standard EnKF.Acknowledgements The author acknowledges useful discussions with Peter Steinle, and other participants at the EnKF workshop held in BMRC in November, 2003.     

Modelling Korean extreme rainfall using a Kappa distribution and maximum likelihood estimate

Summary Attempts to use the 4-parameter Kappa distribution (K4D) with the maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) on the summer extreme daily rainfall data at 61 gauging stations over South Korea have been made to obtain reliable quantile estimates for several return periods. A numerical algorithm for searching MLE of K4D by minimizing the negative log-likelihood function with penalty method has been described. The isopluvial maps of estimated design values corresponding to selected return periods have been presented. The highest return values are centered at sites in the south-western part of the Korean peninsula. The distribution of return values for annual maxima of 2-day precipitation (AMP2) is more similar to the climatological features of annual total precipitation of Korea than that of annual maxima of daily precipitation (AMP1). Our results of return values delineate well the horizontal patterns of the heavy precipitation over the Korean peninsula. Received January 15, 2001 Revised October 8, 2001     

Seasonal Variability of Carbon Dioxide in the Rivers and Lagoons of Ivory Coast (West Africa)

We report partial pressure of CO₂ (pCO₂) and ancillary data in three rivers (Bia, Tanoé, and Comoé) and five lagoons (Tendo, Aby, Ebrié, Potou, and Grand-Lahou) in Ivory Coast (West Africa), during four cruises covering the main climatic seasons. The three rivers were oversaturated in CO₂ with respect to atmospheric equilibrium, and the seasonal variability of pCO₂ was due to dilution during the flooding period. Surface waters of the Potou, Ebrié, and Grand-Lahou lagoons were oversaturated in CO₂ during all seasons. These lagoons behaved similarly to the oligohaline regions of macrotidal estuaries that are CO₂ sources to the atmosphere due to net ecosystem heterotrophy and inputs of riverine CO₂ rich waters. The Aby and Tendo lagoons were undersaturated in CO₂ with respect to the atmosphere because of their permanent haline stratification (unlike the other lagoons) that seemed to lead to higher phytoplankton production and export of organic carbon below the pycnocline.