Improved hydrograph prediction through subsurface characterization: conditional stochastic hillslope simulations

Subsurface heterogeneity is one of the largest sources of uncertainty associated with saturated hydraulic conductivity. Recent work has demonstrated that uncertainty in hydraulic conductivity can impart significant uncertainty in runoff generation processes and surface-water flow. Here, the role of site characterization in reducing hydrograph prediction bias and uncertainty is demonstrated. A fully integrated hydrologic model is used to conduct two sets of stochastic, transient simulation experiments comprising different overland flow mechanisms: Dunne and Hortonian. Conditioning hydraulic conductivity fields using values drawn from a simulated synthetic control case are shown to reduce both mean bias and variance in an ensemble of conditional hydrograph predictions when compared with the control case. The ensemble simulations show a greater reduction in uncertainty in the hydrographs for Hortonian flow. The conditional simulations predict surface ponding and surface pressure distributions with reduced mean error and reduced root mean square error compared with unconditional simulations. Uncertainty reduction in Hortonian and Dunne flow cases demonstrates different temporal signals, with more substantial reduction achieved for Hortonian flow.     

Learning with Local Help: Expanding the Dialogue on Climate Change and Water Management in the Okanagan Region, British Columbia, Canada

The research activity described in this report is a comprehensive regional assessment of the impacts of climate change on water resources and options for adaptation in the Okanagan Basin. The ultimate goal of the project is to develop integrated climate change and water resource scenarios to stimulate a multistakeholder discussion on the implications of climate change for water management in the region. The paper describes two main objectives: (a) providing a set of research products that will be of relevance to regional interests in the Okanagan, and (b) establishing a methodology for participatory integrated assessment of regional climate change impacts and adaptation that could be applied to climate-related concerns in Canada and other countries. This collaborative study has relied on field research, computer-based models, and dialogue exercises to generate an assessment of future implications, and to learn about regional views on the prospects for adaptation. Along the way, it has benefited from strong partnerships with governments, researchers, local water practitioners, and user groups. Building on the scenario-based study components, and a series of interviews and surveys undertaken for the water management and adaptation case study components, a set of stakeholder dialogue sessions were organized which focused on identifying preferred adaptation options and processes for their implementation. Rather than seeking consensus on the “best” option or process, regional interests were asked to consider a range of available options as part of an adaptation portfolio that could address both supply side and demand side aspects of water resources management in the Okanagan. The Canadian Crown reserves the right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free licence in and to any copyright.     

The formation of peridotitic suite inclusions in diamonds

Olivine, orthopyroxene and garnet grains belonging to the peridotitic suite of mineral inclusions in natural diamonds typically show compositions poorer in Ca and Al and richer in Mg and Cr than the same minerals in peridotite nodules in kimberlite. Other features suggest the crystallisation of diamonds from magmas of kimberlitic affinities, and it is suggested that the genesis of peridotitic suite diamonds is linked with that of a CO₂-bearing magma. It is shown that the generation of kimberlitic magma from common garnet-peridotite (with 5 wt.% clinopyroxene) in the presence of CO₂ may rapidly remove by melting all Ca-rich solid phases (clinopyroxene and/or carbonate). Further melting may form liquids in equilibrium with olivine, orthopyroxene, and garnet with the distinctive compositions of the diamond inclusions. The amount of melting and CO₂ necessary for the loss of clinopyroxene (and/or carbonate) are estimated at approximately 5.0 wt.% and 0.5 wt.% respectively.     

Origin of xenoliths in the trachyte at Puu Waawaa,Hualalai Volcano,Hawaii

Rare dunite and 2-pyroxene gabbro xenoliths occur in banded trachyte at Puu Waawaa on Hualalai Volcano, Hawaii. Mineral compositions suggest that these xenoliths formed as cumulates of tholeiitic basalt at shallow depth in a subcaldera magma reservoir. Subsequently, the minerals in the xenoliths underwent subsolidus reequilibration that particularly affected chromite compositions by decreasing their Mg numbers. In addition, olivine lost CaO and plagioclase lost MgO and Fe₂O₃ during subsolidus reequilibration. The xenoliths also reacted with the host trachyte to form secondary mica, amphibole, and orthopyroxene, and to further modify the compositions of some olivine, clinopyroxene, and spinel grains. The reaction products indicate that the host trachyte melt was hydrous. Clinopyroxene in one dunite sample and olivine in most dunite samples have undergone partial melting, apparently in response to addition of water to the xenolith. These xenoliths do not contain CO₂ fluid inclusions, so common in xenoliths from other localities on Hualalai, which suggests that CO₂ was introduced from alkalic basalt magma between the time CO₂-inclusion-free xenoliths erupted at 106±6 ka and the time CO₂-inclusion-rich xenoliths erupted within the last 15 ka.