A Preliminary Study on the Present Crustal Stress of Northern South China Sea

<正>The South China Sea(SCS)is the largest marginal sea in West Pacific formed by a combined effect of the Eurasian plate,Pacific plate and India-Australian plate,and is thus considered to be a unique natural laboratory to study oceanic dynamics and tectonic evolutions(Xie et al.,2006;Luan and Zhang,2009).Besides,the SCS contains enormous petroleum resources for its favorable conditions of oil-gas generation,accumulation and preservation.It is therefore imperative to intensively study the marine in-situ     

雷电临近预警产品评估方法及其软件

为了适应雷电业务发展的需求,对已经投入业务运行试验的雷电临近预警系统的预警效果做出客观评估,中国气象科学研究院雷电物理和防护工程实验室开展了雷电临近预警产品评估方法的研究,并开发了配套的应用软件.评估方法通过雷电预警结果和实际监测结果的对比,得到命中率POD、虚警率FAR和TS评分三项指标,实现对雷电预警产品的评估.评估软件的实际运行表明:该方法不仅能够检验CAMS_LNWS预报雷电活动的能力,还能对预警方法的改进起到一定的指导作用,能够满足雷电业务产品评估的需要.     

西北太平洋海区年际至十年际海面变化尺度耦合与波动转型

利用多通道奇异谱分析(MSSA)等多尺度分析方法,对西北太平洋海区14个站位验潮序列的年际到十年际尺度海面波动的时空特征进行探讨.结果表明:2.5a周期和4.5a周期在振幅与相位上表现出与ENSO指数波动的尺度耦合,并存在显著的由低纬向高纬的振幅、能量递减的纬向传递特征.4.5a周期和8a周期与PDO变化同样表现出一定的尺度耦合波动,高纬各站位海面波动也表现出一定的自东向西的径向传递.在空间维上,PDO作用下的传播型波动的响应范围明显小于ENSO事件,反映了二者驱动机制的差异.该海区约在1973年和1998年左右发生过两次明显的海面波动转型,并与太平洋年代际涛动(PDO)存在一定关联.     

Characteristics of carbonyl compounds in ambient air of Shanghai,China

The levels of carbonyl compounds in Shanghai ambient air were measured in five periods from January 2007 to October 2007 (covering winter, high-air-pollution days, spring, summer and autumn). A total of 114 samples were collected and eighteen carbonyls were identified. Formaldehyde, acetaldehyde and acetone were the most abundant carbonyls and their mean concentrations of 19.40 ± 12.00, 15.92 ± 12.07 and 11.86 ± 7.04 μg m⁻³ respectively, in the daytime for five sampling periods. Formaldehyde and acetaldehyde showed similar diurnal profiles with peak mixing ratios in the morning and early afternoon during the daytime. Their mean concentrations were highest in summer and lowest in winter. Acetone showed reversed seasonal variation. The high molecular weight (HMW, ≥C5) carbonyls also showed obvious diurnal variations with higher concentrations in the daytime in summer and autumn, while they were all not detected in winter. Formaldehyde and acetaldehyde played an important role in removing OH radicals in the atmosphere, but the contribution of acetone was below 1%. The carbonyls levels in high-air-pollution days were reported. More carbonyl species with higher concentrations were found in high-air-pollution days than in spring. These carbonyls were transported with other pollutants from north and northwest in March 27 to April 2, 2007 and then mixed with local sources. Comparing with Beijing and Guangzhou, the concentrations of formaldehyde and acetaldehyde in Shanghai were the highest, which indicated that the air pollution in Shanghai was even worse than expected.     

南疆沙漠腹地大气边界层气象要素廓线分析

利用塔中80m观测塔梯度系统采集的2006年8月、10月和2007年1月、4月的风、温度、湿度资料,结合气象站的同步气象资料,对南疆沙漠腹地近地层四季的晴天平均风速、温度、湿度廓线分布特征进行分析。结果表明,晴天平均风速白天随高度升高增加缓慢,夜间较快,低层风速白天比夜间大,高层则白天比夜间小,春夏季风速较大;四季平均温度廓线表现为夜间辐射型、早上过渡型、白天日射型和傍晚过渡型等四种类型,早、晚过渡时间四季各有不同,日最低、最高温度出现时间四季则相差不大;冬季夜间比湿随高度升高而增大,整个80m近地层表现为逆湿状态,其他季节逆湿一般出现在0．5—1m、1～2m、32—47m、63—80m等4个层次上,各逆湿层出现的时间各季节有所差异。     

地磁场与气候变化关系的新探索

对地磁场与气候变化的统计研究早已表明，二者有很好的相关关系。本文的目的是对它们的关系给出一种可能的物理解释。利用近600年的地磁场模型资料和全球平均温度序列分析了两者变化的关系，发现它们有很好的对应，且地磁场变化超前于全球气温变化。从地磁场的变化来看，21世纪初全球变暖的趋势应该减缓。文中对地表浅层热场（地热带、火山和地温场）的分布特征与地球内部软流圈－岩石圈边界上焦耳热场的分布特征进行了对比分析。结果表明，地表浅层热场与地球深层焦耳热的分布有很好的对应关系，这可能暗示地表浅层热场是地球深层焦耳热的反映，地磁场通过焦耳热的不断释旋影响气候变化。     

近震震源深度测定精度的理论误差分析

2012年4月2日上海徐汇区发生M_L1.9地震,位于徐汇区、闵行区和浦东新区等地区部分房屋有晃动,部分人群有感。本文分析了上海有感地震的原因,在此基础上从地震精确定位、震源深度、地震烈度、地震发生时间以及人口密度和社会影响等对该次地震的有感原因进行了详细的分析。由于目前地震还不能准确预报,而地震的发生有很大的随机性,因此,提高民众防震减灾意识尤为重要。     

Regional debris flow susceptibility analysis based on principal component analysis and self-organizing map: a case study in Southwest China

A method was developed to analyze the susceptibilities of 541 regional basins affected by debris flows at the Wudongde Dam site in southwest China. Determining susceptibility requires information on source material quantity and occurrence frequency. However, the large number of debris flows can hinder the individual field investigation in a each small basin. Factors that may trigger debris flows can be identified using remotely sensed interpretation information. Susceptibility analysis can then be conducted based on these factors. In this study, SPOT5 satellite imagery, digital elevation models (DEM), a lithology distribution map, and rainfall monitoring data were used to identify 12 debris flow trigger factors: basin relief ratio, slope gradient in the initiation zone, drainage density, downslope curvature of the main channel, vegetation coverage, main channel aspect, topographic wetness index, Melton’s ruggedness number, lithology, annual rainfall, form factor, and cross-slope curvature of the transportation zone. Principal component analysis was used to obtain the eight principal components of these factors that contribute to susceptibility results. Then, a self-organizing map method was adopted to analyze the principal components, which resulted in a debris flow susceptibility classification. Field validation of 26 debris flow basins was used to evaluate the errors of the susceptibility classification, as well as assess the causes of such errors. The study found that principle component analysis and self-organizing map methodologies are good predictors of basin susceptibility to debris flows.     

A public Cloud-based China’s Landslide Inventory Database (CsLID): development,zone, and spatiotemporal analysis for significant historical events, 1949-2011

Landslide inventory plays an important role in recording landslide events and showing their temporal-spatial distribution. This paper describes the development, visualization, and analysis of a China's Landslide Inventory Database (CsLID) by utilizing Google’s public cloud computing platform. Firstly, CsLID (Landslide Inventory Database) compiles a total of 1221 historical landslide events spanning the years 1949-2011 from relevant data sources. Secondly, the CsLID is further broken down into six zones for characterizing landslide cause-effect, spatiotemporal distribution, fatalities, and socioeconomic impacts based on the geological environment and terrain. The results show that among all the six zones, zone V, located in Qinba and Southwest Mountainous Area is the most active landslide hotspot with the highest landslide hazard in China. Additionally, the Google public cloud computing platform enables the CsLID to be easily accessible, visually interactive, and with the capability of allowing new data input to dynamically augment the database. This work developed a cyber-landslide inventory and used it to analyze the landslide temporal-spatial distribution in China.