Recognition of Strong Earthquake Prone Areas in the Altai–Sayan–Baikal Region

The locations of areas prone to strong earthquakes (M ≥ 6.0) in the Altai–Sayan–Baikal region are determined. Based on a scheme of morphostructural zoning of the region and by using the CORA-3 pattern recognition algorithm, all intersections of morphostructural lineaments are separated into two classes: the highly seismic intersections in the vicinities of which strong earthquakes can occur and low seismic in the vicinities of which only earthquakes with M < 6.0 are possible. Recognition was performed for the vectors the components of which were measured values of the geological–geophysical characteristics describing the respective intersection. The result obtained allows the zones of high seismic hazard to be identified more reliably in the region.

     

Effects of mechanical layering on hydraulic fracturing in shale gas reservoirs based on numerical models

Generally, induced hydraulic fractures are generated by fluid overpressure and are used to increase reservoir permeability through forming interconnected fracture systems. However, in heterogeneous and anisotropic rocks, many hydraulic fractures may become arrested or offset at layer contacts under certain conditions and do not form vertically connected fracture networks. Mechanical layering is an important factor causing anisotropy in sedimentary layers. Hence, in this study, with a shale gas reservoir case study in the Longmaxi Formation in the southeastern Chongqing region, Sichuan Basin, we present results from several numerical models to gain quantitative insights into the effects of mechanical layering on hydraulic fracturing. Results showed that the fractured area caused by hydraulic fracturing indicated a linear relationship with the neighboring layer’s Young’s modulus. An increase of the neighboring layer’s Young’s modulus resulted in better hydraulic fracturing effects. In addition, the contact between two neighboring layers is regarded as a zone with thickness and mechanical properties, which also influences the effects of hydraulic fracturing in reservoirs. The initial hydraulic fracture was unable to propagate into neighboring layers under a relatively low contact’s Young’s modulus. When associated local tensile stresses exceeded the rock strength, hydraulic fractures propagated into neighboring layers. Moreover, with the contact’s Young’s modulus becoming higher, the fractured area increased rapidly first, then slowly and finally became stable.     

An experimental investigation into the compaction characteristic of granulated gangue backfilling materials modified with binders

Solid backfill mining has apparent technical advantages in extracting coal resource under sensitive surface structures such as buildings and roads; meanwhile, as an effective method of disposing mining wastes, it works well in solving some environmental problems caused by mining activities. In addition, the controlling effect of solid backfill mining is directly related to the compaction characteristic of backfilling materials. The present study aims to modify the backfilling materials by assessing the effect of binders (cement, fly ash, and lime) on the compaction characteristic of granulated gangue backfilling materials. The compaction test was performed with rock mechanic test system equipped with a self-made circular cylinder apparatus. From the results obtained, cement is not the suitable binder for modifying the gangues backfilling materials, while fly ash or lime, when the dosage is up to 20 wt%, is beneficial to the compaction characteristic of backfilling materials. The relationship between strain behavior and micro-structure of backfilling materials was investigated by SEM and the effect of fly ash or lime on the strain behavior of backfilling materials could be associated with its cementation and gap-filling effect.     

Movement process analysis of the high-speed long-runout Shuicheng landslide over 3-D complex terrain using a depth-averaged numerical model

Landslides - Flow-like landslide is one of the most catastrophic types of natural hazards due to its high velocity and long travel distance. In 2019, a large catastrophic landslide was triggered by...     

青海黄南地区近54年蒸发量变化特征及其影响因子

利用青海省黄南地区近54a(1960—2013年)蒸发量、气温、降水量、日照时数、水汽压等资料,应用地理信息系统、数理统计、线性回归和Mann-Kendall检验等方法分析了黄南地区蒸发量的空间及时间变化趋势,并对黄南地区蒸发量变化特征及其影响因子进行了诊断研究。结果表明:黄南地区年平均蒸发量呈明显的下降趋势,20世纪60—70年代为蒸发量偏多阶段,80年代及后为偏少阶段;黄南地区蒸发量最大的季节是春季和夏季,各季蒸发量均呈减少趋势;黄南地区年蒸发量在1973年发生了由多到少的突变,春、夏、秋、冬季分别发在1973、1975、1976和1974年;分析影响蒸发量的相关因子,蒸发量与日照时数呈显著的正相关关系,与水汽压和降水量呈显著的负相关关系,日照时数的减小是蒸发量减少的主要影响因子。     

江西省山地风场风速订正方法研究

利用气象站、探空及NASA再分析资料,对江西省4县山地风场的12座测风塔风速进行订正研究。研究结果表明:测风塔与气象站风速数据相关性较低,相关系数一般远小于0.45;测风塔与探空资料的风速相关系数可达到0.6以上,最高可达到0.8;NASA再分析资料可以作为江西山地风场风速订正参证数据,其与测风塔风速数据相关性较高,相关系数可达到0.54～0.77,大多数测风塔相关系数可达0.7左右。海拔高度小于1000 m的测风塔与NASA 50 m风速的相关系数明显高于其与NASA 850 hPa风速的相关系数,高度为1000—1200 m的测风塔与NASA 50 m风速和与NASA 850 hPa风速的相关系数相差不明显,高度大于1200 m的测风塔与NASA 850 hPa风速的相关系数明显大于其与NASA 50 m风速的相关系数。比值法订正效果略好于线性回归法的,订正后的风功率密度总体偏大。     

双循环新格局下重庆市城镇化发展动力与实现路径

源于时代之变而构筑的双循环新发展格局是市场经济条件下多尺度空间输出理论与劳动地域大分工的“叠加”,为新型城镇化发展带来新的动力源泉。为了揭示这种影响,首先将科技创新和制度改革这2个城镇化发展动力外生变量内生化,构建基于“四维驱动力模型+创新力+制度力”的城镇化动力因子分析框架,结合主成分回归模型对2000年以来重庆市城镇化发展动力进行分析,并据此引入波特的“钻石模型”对其城镇化发展路径进行系统思考。结果表明：1）纳入动力因子体系的创新力和制度力对重庆市城镇化发展产生显著的正向驱动效应,其中创新力表现最为明显。2）重庆市城镇化发展是“六维力”共同作用的结果,但市场力和行政力依然是最主要的驱动力;其次是创新力、内源力和外向力,其中创新力对城镇化发展的驱动效应已在阶段2(2010—2018年)超越行政力的作用效应;最后是制度力;间接反映重庆市城镇化本身是一个内生作用的过程,构筑“以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进”新发展格局具有客观必然性和前瞻性。3）基于波特“钻石模型”分析指出：重庆市存在增长极体量小、市场购买力不足、产品低端化、同质化现象严重等问题,并据此从发展高级生产要素、创造...     

陕南岚皋县柳家坡滑坡形成机制研究

柳家坡滑坡位于陕西岚皋县城北,属松散坡积物类滑坡。滑体为粘质砾砂土,渗透性差,受动水压力作用易发生流土;滑床为泥板岩和片岩。滑体和滑床工程地质性质差异明显,二者界面为滑体下滑的主滑面。该滑坡为一古滑坡,曾多次发生变形滑动,2003年在连续强降雨和坡脚切坡等因素诱发下重新活动,目前处于欠稳定状态,若遇强降雨仍有可能发生整体失稳。对陕西南秦岭区域滑坡调查表明无论是滑坡类型,还是滑坡体物质组成及变形规律,柳家坡滑坡在陕南都具有一定的代表性。     

A Gaussian process regression-based sea surface temperature interpolation algorithm

The resolution of ocean reanalysis datasets is generally low because of the limited resolution of their associated numerical models. Low-resolution ocean reanal...