Seasonal flooding in Bangladesh – variability and predictability

At present, Bangladesh has a flood forecasting lead time of only 3 days or so. There is demand for a forecasting lead time of a month to a season. The primary objectives of this paper are to study the variability and predictability of seasonal flooding in Bangladesh, as revealed by large‐scale predictors of the climate across the watersheds. To explore the source of predictability, accessible Bangladesh hydrological indicators are related to large‐scale oceanic variability and to large‐scale atmospheric circulation patterns predicted by general circulation models (GCMs). Correlation analyses between the flood‐affected area (FAA) for July–September and tropical sea‐surface temperature (SST) indicate connections to tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean SSTs, at a short lead time of a month or so. These are related to El Niño–southern oscillation (ENSO). Correlations between the SSTs of the preceding October–December and the July–September FAA are weaker but notable. Forecasts of the FAA using the leading principal components (PCs) of SST were made, which provided good skill with a lead time of a month or so. The streamflows and rainfall observed in Bangladesh have been added to these prediction models. Finally, the SST PCs were replaced with PCs of GCM prediction fields (precipitation). The prediction models at short lead time that were constructed for FAA were of generally similar levels of skill to that for SST. This is encouraging, as it suggests that linkages with SST can be successfully recovered in a physical model of the climate system in Bangladesh. This study concludes that seasonal flood prediction in Bangladesh is possible from the unusually warm or cold SST in parts of the tropics. This predictability can be enhanced with the information achievable from monitoring the downstream streamflows (which are generated mainly from upstream rainfall conditions) in advance of the flooding season. Finally, this study recommends formalizing a regional cooperation among the countries in the principal co‐basin areas of the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna to achieve this goal. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Deglacial and Holocene conditions in northernmost Baffin Bay: sediments, foraminifera, diatoms and stable isotopes

A multiproxy study of palaeoceanographic and climatic changes in northernmost Baffin Bay shows that major environmental changes have occurred since the deglaciation of the area at about 12 500 cal. yr BP. The interpretation is based on sedimentology, benthic and planktonic foraminifera and their isotopic composition, as well as diatom assemblages in the sedimentary records at two core sites, one located in the deeper central part of northernmost Baffin Bay and one in a separate trough closer to the Greenland coast. A revised chronology for the two records is established on the basis of 15 previously published AMS ¹⁴C age determinations. A basal diamicton is overlain by laminated, fossil-free sediments. Our data from the early part of the fossiliferous record (12 300–11 300 cal. yr BP), which is also initially laminated, indicate extensive seasonal sea-ice cover and brine release. There is indication of a cooling event between 11 300 and 10 900 cal. yr BP, and maximum Atlantic Water influence occurred between 10 900 and 8200 cal. yr BP (no sediment recovery between 8200 and 7300 cal. yr BP). A gradual, but fluctuating, increase in sea-ice cover is seen after 7300 cal. yr BP. Sea-ice diatoms were particularly abundant in the central part of northernmost Baffin Bay, presumably due to the inflow of Polar waters from the Arctic Ocean, and less sea ice occurred at the near-coastal site, which was under continuous influence of the West Greenland Current. Our data from the deep, central part show a fluctuating degree of upwelling after c . 7300 cal. yr BP, culminating between 4000 and 3050 cal. yr BP. There was a gradual increase in the influence of cold bottom waters from the Arctic Ocean after about 3050 cal. yr BP, when agglutinated foraminifera became abundant. A superimposed short-term change in the sea-surface proxies is correlated with the Little Ice Age cooling.     

Climate change scepticism and public support for mitigation: Evidence from an Australian choice experiment

Public scepticism surrounding climate change is an obstacle for implementing climate change mitigation measures in many countries. However, very little is known about: (1) the nature and sources of climate change scepticism; and (2) its influence on preferences for climate change mitigation policies. In this paper, we investigate these two issues using evidence and analysis from an Australian public survey and choice experiment. The study has three key findings. First, the intensity of scepticism varies depending on its type; we observed little scepticism over the cause, trend and impact of climate change and widespread scepticism over the effectiveness of mitigation measures and global co-operation. Second, cause and mitigation scepticism play significant roles in determining public support for climate change abatement. Respondents who believed in human-induced climate change were significantly more supportive of mitigation. Likewise, respondents who believed that mitigation would be successful in slowing down climate change were significantly more likely to be supportive. Third, the general public tend to give the benefit of the doubt to supporting mitigation. Those who expressed higher uncertainty about climate outcomes were more supportive of mitigation than others with similar expectations but lower uncertainty.     

The development of a rapid screening technique to measure antibiotic activity in effluents and surface water samples

Use of antibiotics in medicine, farming and aquaculture results in a continual supply of these pharmaceuticals and their breakdown products reaching the environment. A method has been developed to use for screening environmental samples to establish whether they contain antibiotics. The assay is based on a commercially available test kit and uses some modifications of the test procedure and SPE techniques to deliver a fast, semi-quantifiable result. Development of the assay and results from spiked and environmental samples are discussed.     

RE J1034+396: the origin of the soft X-ray excess and quasi-periodic oscillation

The X-ray quasi-periodic oscillation (QPO) seen in RE J1034+396 is so far unique amongst active galactic nuclei (AGN). Here, we look at another unique feature of RE J1034+396, namely its huge soft X-ray excess, to see if this is related in any way to the detection of the QPO. We show that all potential models considered for the soft energy excess can fit the 0.3–10 keV X-ray spectrum, but the energy dependence of the rapid variability (which is dominated by the QPO) strongly supports a spectral decomposition where the soft excess is from low-temperature Comptonization of the disc emission and remains mostly constant, while the rapid variability is produced by the power-law tail changing in normalization. The presence of the QPO in the tail rather than in the disc is a common feature in black hole binaries (BHBs), but low-temperature Comptonization of the disc spectrum is not generally seen in these systems. The main exception to this is GRS 1915+105, the only BHB which routinely shows super-Eddington luminosities. We speculate that the super-Eddington accretion rates lead to a change in disc structure, and that this also triggers the X-ray QPO.