Accretion rates in brackish marshes of a Chesapeake Bay estuarine tributary

Vertical accretion rates were determined for brackish marshes in an estuarine tributary on the Eastern Shore of Chesapeake Bay. These rates determined on the basis of the peak phase of early European settlement as recorded in pollen spectra of the marsh sediments range between 0. 18 to 0.74 cm yr⁻¹ over approximately the last 194 years and generally decrease down the estuary. More recent accretion rates (estimated from changes in pine pollen concentration) appear to have accelerated, exceeding the present local rate of sea level rise. The implications for using estuarine marsh accretion rates as surrogates for changes in sea level are discussed.     

Hydrochemical tracers in the middle Rio Grande Basin,USA: 2. Calibration of a groundwater-flow model

The calibration of a groundwater model with the aid of hydrochemical data has demonstrated that low recharge rates in the Middle Rio Grande Basin may be responsible for a groundwater trough in the center of the basin and for a substantial amount of Rio Grande water in the regional flow system. Earlier models of the basin had difficulty reproducing these features without any hydrochemical data to constrain the rates and distribution of recharge. The objective of this study was to use the large quantity of available hydrochemical data to help calibrate the model parameters, including the recharge rates. The model was constructed using the US Geological Surveys software MODFLOW, MODPATH, and UCODE, and calibrated using ¹⁴C activities and the positions of certain flow zones defined by the hydrochemical data. Parameter estimation was performed using a combination of nonlinear regression techniques and a manual search for the minimum difference between field and simulated observations. The calibrated recharge values were substantially smaller than those used in previous models. Results from a 30,000-year transient simulation suggest that recharge was at a maximum about 20,000 years ago and at a minimum about 10,000 years ago.

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Resumen La calibración de un modelo de aguas subterráneas con el apoyo de datos hidroquímicos ha demostrado que la recarga relativamente baja en la cuenca media del Río Grande es probablemente responsable de una depresión de aguas subterráneas en el centro de la cuenca y de la presencia de una cantidad considerable de agua del Río Grande en el acuífero del Grupo Santa Fe. Los modelos propuestos con anterioridad para la cuenca tenían dificultades para reproducir estas características ya que no tenían datos hidroquímicos que permitieran delimitar los ritmos y distribución de recarga. El objetivo del presente estudio consistió en utilizar una gran cantidad de datos hidroquímicos disponibles para ayudar a calibrar los parámetros del modelo, incluyendo los ritmos de recarga. El modelo se construyó utilizando los modelos MODFLOW, MODPATH, y UCODE del USGS, mientras que la calibración se realizó en base a concentraciones de ¹⁴C y a la posición de ciertas zonas definidas con los datos hidroquímicos. La estimación de parámetros se realizó en base a una combinación de técnicas de regresiones no lineares y a una búsqueda a viva fuerza del error mínimo entre los datos observados y los simulados. Los valores de recarga calibrados fueron significativamente más bajos que los estimados en los modelos anteriores. Los resultados de una simulación transitoria de 30,000 años sugieren que la recarga durante la última glacial máxima (LGM) fue diez veces el ritmo moderno, pero que la recarga que ocurrió inmediatamente después de la LGM fue más baja que el ritmo moderno.

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Résumé Le calibrage dun modèle hydrogéologique avec laide de données hydrochimiques a démontré que la recharge relativement faible dans le Grand Bassin du Middle Rio est vraisemblablement responsable dune dépression des eaux souterraines dans le centre du bassin et de la présence dune quantité substantielle deau du Rio Grande dans laquifère du Groupe de Santa Fe. Les modèles antérieurs avaient des difficultés à reproduire ses conclusions sans laide de données hydrochimiques pour contraindre les taux et la distribution de la recharge. Lobjectif de cette étude était dutiliser une grande quantité de données hydrochimiques permettant de calibrer les paramètres du modèle, et notamment les taux de recharge. Le modèle a été construit avec les logiciels MODFLOW, MODPATH et UCODE, et calibré en utilisant les concentrations en ¹⁴C et la position de certaines zones définies par les données hydrochimiques. Lestimation de certains paramètres a été réalisée en utilisant une combinaison de techniques de régression non linéaire et une méthode de recherche exhaustive (Brute Force Search) de lerreur minimum entre les résultats des observations et les simulations. Les valeurs de la recharge calibrée sont substantiellement plus basses que celles estimées dans les modèles antérieurs. Les résultats dune simulation en régime transitoire sur 30.000 ans suggèrent que la recharge au maximum de la dernière glaciation (last glacial maximum, LGM) était 10 fois supérieure au taux actuel, mais que la recharge qui a suivit la LGM était plus bas que la recharge actuelle.

     

Current challenges using models to forecast seawater intrusion: lessons from the Eastern Shore of Virginia, USA

A three-dimensional model of the aquifer system of the Eastern Shore of Virginia, USA was calibrated to reproduce historical water levels and forecast the potential for saltwater intrusion. Future scenarios were simulated with two pumping schemes to predict potential areas of saltwater intrusion. Simulations suggest that only a few wells would be threatened with detectable salinity increases before 2050. The objective was to examine whether salinity increases can be accurately forecast for individual wells with such a model, and to address what the challenges are in making such model forecasts given current (2009) simulation capabilities. The analysis suggests that even with current computer capabilities, accurate simulations of concentrations within a regional-scale (many km) transition zone are computationally prohibitive. The relative paucity of data that is typical for such regions relative to what is needed for accurate transport simulations suggests that even with an infinitely powerful computer, accurate forecasting for a single well would still be elusive. Useful approaches may include local-grid refinement near wells and geophysical surveys, but it is important to keep expectations for simulated forecasts at wells in line with chloride concentration and other data that can be obtained at that local scale.     

Far-infrared spectral observations of Venus,Mars, and Jupiter

Spectra of Venus, Mars, and Jupiter between 45 and 115 μm have been obtained at a resolving power of ～10, observing from the NASA Lear Jet at an altitude of 13.7 km. The results are calibrated with lunar observations, and show Mars and Venus to have relatively constant brightness temperatures over this wavelength region, with Venus appearing somewhat warmer at longer wavelengths. The brightness temperature of Jupiter decreases slightly toward longer wavelengths.     

New constraints on the late Cenozoic incision history of the New River, Virginia

The New River crosses three physiogeologic provinces of the ancient, tectonically quiescent Appalachian orogen and is ideally situated to record variability in fluvial erosion rates over the late Cenozoic. Active erosion features on resistant bedrock that floors the river at prominent knickpoints demonstrate that the river is currently incising toward base level. However, thick sequences of alluvial fill and fluvial terraces cut into this fill record an incision history for the river that includes several periods of stalled downcutting and aggradation. We used cosmogenic ¹⁰Be exposure dating, aided by mapping and sedimentological examination of terrace deposits, to constrain the timing of events in this history. ¹⁰Be concentration depth profiles were used to help account for variables such as cosmogenic inheritance and terrace bioturbation. Fill-cut and strath terraces at elevations 10, 20, and 50 m above the modern river yield model cosmogenic exposure ages of 130, 600, and 600–950 ka, respectively, but uncertainties on these ages are not well constrained. These results provide the first direct constraint on the history of alluvial aggradation and incision events recorded by New River terrace deposits. The exposure ages yield a long-term average incision rate of 43 m/my, which is comparable to rates measured elsewhere in the Appalachians. During specific intervals over the last 1 Ma, however, the New River's incision rate reached 100 m/my. Modern erosion rates on bedrock at a prominent knickpoint are between 28 and 87 m/my, in good agreement with rates calculated between terrace abandonment events and significantly faster than 2 m/my rates of surface erosion from ancient terrace remnants. Fluctuations between aggradation and rapid incision operate on timescales of 10⁴− 10⁵ year, similar to those of late Cenozoic climate variations, though uncertainties in model ages preclude direct correlation of these fluctuations to specific climate change events. These second-order fluctuations appear within a longer-term signal of dominant aggradation (until 2 Ma) followed by dominant incision. A similar signal is observed on other Appalachian rivers and may be the result of sediment supply fluctuations driven by the increased frequency of climate changes in the late Cenozoic.