临汾台VP型宽频带倾斜仪在2010年山西河津地震前的异常分析

2010年1月24日河津M4.8地震前,临汾台VP型宽频带倾斜仪观测到的异常变化为:1)震前1年曲线表现为典型的α、β、γ阶段性异常形态;2)震前35天至震后7天观测到慢地震过程;3)频谱分析表明:震前1个月观测信号在0.1、0.3、0.5 Hz频段附近频幅为明显增大,震前当月在0.1~0.5 Hz频段区间频幅表现为增强;4)震前2个月加卸载响应比出现高、低值交替跳动,并随主震的临近响应比逐渐增大。     

云场中云簇的测量

使用云分割法和最近累积分布函数法，通过蒙特卡罗模拟和陆地卫星资料研究了卷云覆盖频率与云簇型式的依赖关系。结果表明：由于云分布“核态”的尺度依赖于云网格的尺度，云分布“模态”不能很好地描述云尺度大小分布，这里云尺度大小是指云覆盖量最大时的尺度权重（是云尺度大小的函数）。同时也表明卷云的“模型”尺度与云网格尺度之间关系最小，对任何给定的云尺度分布，“最小模态尺度”是唯一的。在云的组成具有相同尺度及与较大尺度云重迭的云场中，“最小模态尺度”与云覆盖频率分布的形状有关。云尺度分布引起的簇的形式不同于云中心区云簇的形式，其原因是“有效”的云尺度大小取决于网格区域的大小，并且是由云簇决定的，有效的云尺度是由云覆盖频率分布形状反算得到的     

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Internal Loads and Bioavailability of Phosphorus and Nitrogen in Dianchi Lake,China

Sediments have a significant influence on the cycling of nutrient elements in lake environments. In order to assess the distribution characteristics and estimate the bioavailability of phosphorus and nitrogen in Dianchi Lake, organic and inorganic phosphorus and nitrogen forms were analysed. The 210 Pb radiometric dating method was employed to study temporal changes in the phosphorus and nitrogen pools in Dianchi Lake. The result show that the total phosphorus(TP) and total nitrogen(TN) were both at high concentrations, ranging from 697.5–3210.0 mg/kg and 1263.7–7155.2 mg/kg, respectively. Inorganic phosphorus(IP) and total organic nitrogen(TON) were the main constituents, at percentages of 59%–78% and 74%–95%, respectively, in the sediments. Spatially, there was a decreasing trend in phosphorus and nitrogen contents from the south and north to the lake centre, which is related to the distribution pattern of local economic production. The burial rates of the various phosphorus and nitrogen forms increased in same spatially and over time. Particularly in the past two decades, the burial rates doubled, with that TN reached to 1.287 mg/(cm~2·yr) in 2014. As the most reactive forms, nitrate nitrogen(NO_3-N) and ammonia nitrogen(NH_4-N) were buried more rapidly in the south region, implying that the potential for releasing sedimentary nitrogen increased from north to south. Based on their concentrations and burial rates, the internal loads of phosphorus and nitrogen were analysed for the last century. A TP pool of 71597.6 t and a TN pool of 81191.7 t were estimated for Dianchi Lake. Bioavailable phosphorus and nitrogen pools were also estimated at 44468.0 t and 5429.7 t, respectively, for the last century.     

Advances in thermokarst lake research in permafrost regions

A thermokarst lake is defined as a lake occupying a closed depression formed by ground settlement following thawing of ice-rich permafrost or the melting of massive ice. As it is the most visible morphologic landscape developed during the process of permafrost degradation, we reviewed recent literature on thermokarst studies, and summarized the main study topics as： development and temporal evolution, carbon release, and ecological and engineering influence of thermokarst lakes. The climate warming, forest fires, surface water pooling, geotectonic fault and anthropogenic activity are the main influencing factors that cause an increase of ground temperatures and melting of ice-rich permafrost, resulting in thermokarst lake formation. Normally a thermokarst lake develops in 3–5 stages from initiation to permafrost recovery. Geo-rectified aerial photographs and remote sensing images show that thermokarst lakes have been mainly experiencing the process of shrinkage or disappearance in most regions of the Arctic, while both lake numbers and areas on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau have increased. Field studies and modeling indicates that carbon release from thermokarst lakes can feedback significantly to global warming, thus enhancing our understanding of the influences of thermokarst lakes on the ecological environment, and on regional groundwater through drainage. Based on field monitoring and numerical simulations, infrastructure stability can be affected by thermal erosion of nearby thermokarst lakes. This review was undertaken to enhance our understanding of thermokarst lakes, and providing references for future comprehensive studies on thermokarst lakes.     

1990-2010年中国耕地变化对粮食生产潜力的影响

1990年以来,在国家生态环境保护工程实施、经济快速增长等因素的影响下,中国耕地数量与空间格局发生了巨大变化,对粮食生产潜力造成了巨大影响。本文采用GAEZ模型,结合中国气象、地形、土壤等因素,定量分析了中国耕地粮食生产潜力空间特征以及1990-2010年中国耕地变化对粮食生产潜力的影响。主要结论如下：① 2010年全国耕地粮食生产潜力总量为10.55亿t,全国耕地平均粮食生产潜力为7614 kg/hm²。中国耕地粮食生产潜力存在显著的空间差异,总体表现为东部高而西北部较低的趋势,并且高值区主要分布在长江中下游地区和华南区。② 1990-2010年的20年间,中国耕地粮食生产潜力变化表现出明显的时空差异,总体呈现南减北增、总量减少的基本特征。新增耕地粮食生产潜力的重心逐步由东北向西北转移。耕地粮食生产潜力总量净减少297万t,占2010年全国实际粮食总产量的0.29%。③ 在1990-2000年与2000-2010年两个时期,耕地变化对耕地粮食生产潜力影响差异明显。前10年,耕地粮食生产潜力总量净增加1011万t,主要集中在东北平原区和北方干旱半干旱区;后10年,耕地粮食生产潜力总量净减少1308万t,主要集中在长江中下游地区和黄淮海平原区。从总体看,近20年来耕地粮食生产潜力总量增加主要是由林、草地和未利用土地开垦所导致,而耕地粮食生产潜力总量减少主要是由城市扩展和退耕还林还草所导致。     

大尺度大气运动的倍周期分叉和流型的非周期演变

本文提出了一个控制斜压准地转气流运动的八维非线性自治系统。随着非绝热强迫参数的变化,流型的演变显示出倍周期分叉,比值(r2-r1)/(r3-r2)近似等于Feigenbaum普适常数。越过分叉点r∞后,形成具有四片的怪引子,其结构与三维的Lorenz怪引子及Rössler怪引子不同。     

潜在腾发量的季节性变化趋势及概率分布特性研究

利用北京昌平气象站多年系列观测资料和世界粮农组织(FAO)建议的公式计算了历年各月逐旬潜在腾发量的平均值(ET_p).通过分析表明,潜在腾发量呈明显的季节性变化趋势。潜在腾发量的多年均值和标准差(STD)都能用Fourier级数的二阶分量来作很好的近似。潜在腾发量是一个随机变量,其随机变化规律服从正态分布,该分布的均值和标准差都随着季节而变化。     

柳州新一代天气雷达通风系统的改进措施

新一代全相干多普勒天气雷达具有较高的可靠性、稳定性、可维护性及全天候的连续工作能力,具有自动数据采集、产品生成和显示、数据存储、运行监控和标校等功能.     

对地球系统模式评估方法的回顾

对地球系统模式评估方法的回顾表明,近些年该领域有明显的进展,包括从单个变量到地球系统五个圈层多变量、多过程、多现象的定量评估,从气候态的评估到气候变化(如趋势性、周期性、年代际变率)、极值、异常和现象的定量评估,从定性评价到定量计算模式模拟的可靠性和不确定性,在多模式的利用中开始考虑模式之间的独立性和相似性,以及对气候预测和预估的效果进行定量评估和不确定性的贡献分析。