植被时空变化的估算方法

Plant diversity is used as an indicator of the well-being of vegetation and ecological systems. Human activities and global change drive vegetation change in composition and competition of species through plant invasions and replacement of existing species on a given scale. However, species diversity indices do not consider the effects of invasions on the diversity value and on the functions of ecosystems. On the other hand, the existing methods for diversity index can not be used directly for cross-scale evaluation of vegetation data. Therefore, we proposed a 3-dimensional model derived from the logistic equation for estimating vegetation change, using native and non-native plant diversity. The two variables, based on the current and the theoretical maximum diversity of native plants on a given scale, and the result of the model are relative values without units, and are therefore scale-independent. Hence, this method developed can be used directly for cross-scale evaluations nf vegetation data, and indirectly for estimatinu ecosvstem or environmental chanue.     

Palaeolimnology of Lake Sapanca and identification of historic earthquake signals,Northern Anatolian Fault Zone (Turkey)

Lake Sapanca is located on a strand of the Northern Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ, Turkey), where a series of strong earthquakes (Ms >6.0) have occurred over the past hundred years. Identifying prehistoric earthquakes in and around Lake Sapanca is key to a better understanding of plate movements along the NAFZ. This study contributes to the development of palaeolimnological tools to identify past earthquakes in Lake Sapanca. To this end several promising proxies were investigated, specifically lithology, magnetic susceptibility, grain size (thin-section and laser analysis), geochemistry, pollen concentration, diatom assemblages, ¹³⁷Cs and ²¹⁰Pb. Sedimentological indicators provided evidence for reworked, turbidite-like or homogeneous facies (event layers) in several short cores (<45 cm). Other indicators of sediment input and the historical chronicles available for the area suggest that three of these event layers likely originated from the AD 1957, 1967 and 1999 earthquakes. Recent changes in sediment deposition and nutrient levels have also been identified, but are probably not related to earthquakes. This study demonstrates that a combination of indicators can be used to recognize earthquake-related event layers in cores that encompass a longer period of time.     

Evaluation of thermal equations of state for CO2 in numerical simulations

Three commonly used thermal equations of state for carbon dioxide, as well as the ideal gas law, have been compared against a large number of measurement data taken from the literature. Complex equations of state reach a higher accuracy than simple ones. The inaccuracy of the density function can cause large errors in fluid property correlations, such as heat capacity or viscosity. The influence of this inaccuracy on the results of numerical simulations have been evaluated by two examples: The first one assumes isothermal gas expansion from a volume, while the second one considers heat transport along a fracture. For both examples, different equations of state have been utilized. The simulations have been performed on the scientific software platform OpenGeoSys. The difference among the particular simulation results is significant. Apparently small errors in the density function can cause considerably different results of otherwise identical simulation setups.     

In situ methods for measuring thermal properties and heat flux on planetary bodies

The thermo-mechanical properties of planetary surface and subsurface layers control to a high extent in which way a body interacts with its environment, in particular how it responds to solar irradiation and how it interacts with a potentially existing atmosphere. Furthermore, if the natural temperature profile over a certain depth can be measured in situ, this gives important information about the heat flux from the interior and thus about the thermal evolution of the body. Therefore, in most of the recent and planned planetary lander missions experiment packages for determining thermo-mechanical properties are part of the payload. Examples are the experiment MUPUS on Rosetta's comet lander Philae, the TECP instrument aboard NASA's Mars polar lander Phoenix, and the mole-type instrument HP³ currently developed for use on upcoming lunar and Mars missions. In this review we describe several methods applied for measuring thermal conductivity and heat flux and discuss the particular difficulties faced when these properties have to be measured in a low pressure and low temperature environment. We point out the abilities and disadvantages of the different instruments and outline the evaluation procedures necessary to extract reliable thermal conductivity and heat flux data from in situ measurements.     

Adapting rail and road networks to weather extremes: case studies for southern Germany and Austria

The assessment of the current impacts of extreme weather conditions on transport systems reveals high costs in specific locations. Prominent examples for Europe are the economic consequences of the harsh winter periods 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 and the floods in Austria, Eastern Europe, Germany and the United Kingdom in 2005 and 2007. Departing from the EC-funded project WEATHER, this paper delves into the subject of adaptation strategies by revisiting the project’s general findings on adaptation strategies and by adding two specific cases: (1) advanced winter maintenance on roads in southwest Germany and (2) technical and organizational measures in Alpine rail transport. For these two cases, feasible adaptation strategies are elaborated and their potential is discussed in light of damage cost forecasts up to 2050. For the road sector, we find a high potential to mitigate weather-related costs, although damages here are expected to decline. In contrast, rail systems face strongly increasing damages and the mitigation options offered by improved information and communication systems seem to be largely exploited. Consequently, it is easier to justify expensive adaptation measures for high-cost rail infrastructures than for road transport. A generic analysis of 14 damage cases worldwide, however, revealed that generally awareness raising, cooperation and communication strategies are sufficient to mitigate the most severe damages by natural disasters.     

Factor analysis of borehole logs for evaluating formation shaliness: a hydrogeophysical application for groundwater studies

The calculation of groundwater reserves in shaly sand aquifers requires a reliable estimation of effective porosity and permeability; the amount of shaliness as a related quantity can be determined from well log analysis. The conventionally used linear model, connecting the natural gamma-ray index to shale content, often gives only a rough estimate of shale volume. A non-linear model is suggested, which is derived from the factor analysis of well-logging data. An earlier study of hydrocarbon wells revealed an empirical relationship between the factor scores and shale volume, independent of the well site. Borehole logs from three groundwater wells drilled in the northeastern Great Hungarian Plain are analyzed to derive depth logs of factor variables, which are then correlated with shale volumes given from the method of Larionov. Shale volume logs derived by the statistical procedure are in close agreement with those derived from Larionov’s formula, which confirms the validity of the non-linear approximation. The statistical results are in good accordance with laboratory measurements made on core samples. Whereas conventional methods normally use a single well log as input, factor analysis processes all available logs to provide groundwater exploration with reliable estimations of shale volume.     

A distinct class of avalanche scars on Mars

We report observations of a set of surface features on Mars that form a distinct class of avalanche scars. These features have a horizontal scale of hundreds of meters, but a depth scale of meters distinguishes them from the shallower features known as slope streaks. The meters-thick avalanche scars have escaped previous attention because of weak contrast between the interiors of the scarred regions and their surroundings. Often the most visible feature is a shadow cast by the trough wall, a band 1-3 pixels wide in Mars Orbiter Camera narrow angle images, indicating maximum depths of 4-10 m. We investigate the morphology of more than 500 such features. Slopes upon which the avalanches occur average about 27°. Impact craters are seen at the heads of some avalanche scars; this subset exhibits statistically wider opening angles. The scars span an estimated several Ma in age. Those found so far occurred mainly in the Olympus Mons lower aureole. We compare shapes of slope streaks to shapes of meters-thick avalanches, and the results support the notion that the two classes are distinct. The newly-discovered avalanches resemble some terrestrial flows of loose, dry material such as dry snow and glass beads. On the basis of these analogs, we suggest a physical model.