Temporal changes in seasonal precipitation over the Sahara Desert from 1979 to 2016

Rainfall variability dominates livelihoods in all countries of Saharan Africa. To better understand the processes involved in Sahara precipitation changes, we used the Global Precipitation Climatology Center(GPCC) dataset to examine dry and wet seasonal trends in the Sahara region from 1979 to 2016. We also used the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) to evaluate the general atmospheric circulation associated with seasonal change of Sahara precipitation. The Mann-Kendall test and Theil sens' slope estimator methods were adopted to test and estimate the significance and weight of precipitation trend, respectively. The results revealed that Sahara precipitation has increased significantly.The seasonal evaluation shows a positive trend of 0.42 mm/decade and 1.43 mm/decade in JAS(June, August, and September) seasons for the northern and southern Saharan Desert, respectively. Moreover, the JFMA(January, February,March, and April) period shows a negative trend but not statistically significant. An examination of the general circulation and moisture transport changes suggested an increase of rainfall in southern Sahara. The wet period is also driven by northward penetration of moisture originating from the Sahel region, African Easterly Jet(AEJ), and weakening in the upper tropospheric zonal wind. Summer rainfall has also been likely associated with positive anomalies of sea surface temperature(SST) in the North Tropical Atlantic(NTA) and the Mediterranean Sea.     

平面P波在饱和半空间中洞室周围的散射(Ⅰ):解析解

利用波函数展开法给出了入射平面P波在饱和半空间中圆形洞室周围散射问题的一个解析解。半空间假定为无粘性流体饱和介质,满足Biot理论。采用一种基于实验数据的孔隙率和模量之间的线性关系来确定Biot模型中的介质参数。解答考虑了透水边界和非透水边界两种情况。对边界条件进行了数值检验,结果表明,随着级数截断项数的增大,边界残量衰减很快。解答为进一步研究入射波频率和角度、边界渗透条件、孔隙率、泊松比等参数对散射的影响奠定了基础。     

Simplified nonlinear modeling of river flow routing

Management of open-channel flow systems requires accurate models of flow transfer. This article presents a simple nonlinear model representative of the flow transfer in a river reach. The model is obtained through linearization of a physical model, simplification using the cumulant matching method and analytic identification of a nonlinear model coinciding with the linear model around equilibrium points, corresponding to the hydraulic permanent regimes. The methodology is illustrated on the diffusive wave equation and the Saint-Venant equations. The obtained nonlinear models are compared in simulation to the initial models. The nonlinear model is shown to ensure mass conservation, despite the variable delay element of the model. The proposed model can reproduce the nonlinear behavior of the time-delay with discharge variations. It is well-suited for fast simulations, flow forecasting, and for controller design.     

A discontinuous finite element baroclinic marine model on unstructured prismatic meshes

We describe the space discretization of a three-dimensional baroclinic finite element model, based upon a discontinuous Galerkin method, while the companion paper (Comblen et al. 2010a) describes the discretization in time. We solve the hydrostatic Boussinesq equations governing marine flows on a mesh made up of triangles extruded from the surface toward the seabed to obtain prismatic three-dimensional elements. Diffusion is implemented using the symmetric interior penalty method. The tracer equation is consistent with the continuity equation. A Lax–Friedrichs flux is used to take into account internal wave propagation. By way of illustration, a flow exhibiting internal waves in the lee of an isolated seamount on the sphere is simulated. This enables us to show the advantages of using an unstructured mesh, where the resolution is higher in areas where the flow varies rapidly in space, the mesh being coarser far from the region of interest. The solution exhibits the expected wave structure. Linear and quadratic shape functions are used, and the extension to higher-order discretization is straightforward.     

Anti-plane （SH） waves diffraction by cavity： analytical an underground semi-circular solution

Diffraction of a two-dimensional (2D) semi-circular cavity in a half-space under incident SH-waves is studied using the classic wave function expansion method with a new de-coupling technique. This so-called “improved cosine halfrange expansion” algorithm exhibits an excellent performance in reducing displacement residual errors at two rim points of concern. The governing equations are developed in a manner that minimizes the residues of the boundary conditions. Detailed derivation and analysis procedures as well as truncation of infinite linear governing equations are presented. The semi-circular cavity model presented in this paper, due to its simple profile, is expected to be used in seismic wave propagation studies as a benchmark for examining the accuracies of various analytical or numerical methods for mixed-boundary wave propagation problems.     

Characterization of site conditions (soil class,V<Subscript>S30</Subscript>, velocity profiles) for 33 stations from the French permanent accelerometric network (RAP) using surface-wave methods

Data provided by accelerometric networks are important for seismic hazard assessment. The correct use of accelerometric signals is conditioned by the station site metadata quality (i.e., soil class, V_S30, velocity profiles, and other relevant information that can help to quantify site effects). In France, the permanent accelerometric network consists of about 150 stations. Thirty-three of these stations in the southern half of France have been characterized, using surface-wave-based methods that allow derivation of velocity profiles from dispersion curves of surface waves. The computation of dispersion curves and their subsequent inversion in terms of shear-wave velocity profiles has allowed estimation of V_S30 values and designation of soil classes, which include the corresponding uncertainties. From a methodological point of view, this survey leads to the following recommendations: (1) perform both active (multi-analysis surface waves) and passive (ambient vibration arrays) measurements to derive dispersion curves in a broadband frequency range; (2) perform active acquisitions for both vertical (Rayleigh wave) and horizontal (Love wave) polarities. Even when the logistic contexts are sometimes difficult, the use of surface-wave-based methods is suitable for station-site characterization, even on rock sites. In comparison with previous studies that have mainly estimated V_S30 indirectly, the new values here are globally lower, but the EC8-A class sites remain numerous. However, even on rock sites, high frequency amplifications may affect accelerometric records, due to the shallow relatively softer layers.     

Perturbation of fluvial sediment fluxes following the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake

Quantifying the removal of co‐seismic landslide material after a large‐magnitude earthquake is central to our understanding of geomorphic recovery from seismic events and the topographic evolution of tectonically active mountain ranges. In order to gain more insight into the fluvial erosion response to co‐seismic landslides, we focus on the sediment fluxes of rivers flowing through the rupture zone of the 2008 M_w 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake in the Longmen Shan of the eastern Tibetan Plateau. Over the post‐seismic period of 2008–2013, we annually collected river sediment samples (0.25–1 mm) at 19 locations and measured the concentration of cosmogenic ¹⁰Be in quartz. When compared with published pre‐earthquake data, the ¹⁰Be concentrations declined dramatically after the earthquake at all sampling sites, but with significant spatial differences in the amplitude of this decrease, and were starting to increase toward pre‐earthquake level in several basins over the 5‐year survey. Our analysis shows that the amplitude of ¹⁰Be decrease is controlled by the amount of landslides directly connected to the river network. Calculations based on ¹⁰Be mixing budgets indicate that the sediment flux of the 0.25–1 mm size fraction increased up to sixfold following the Wenchuan earthquake. Our results also suggest that fluvial erosion became supply limited shortly after the earthquake, and predict that it could take a few years to several decades for fluvial sediment fluxes to go back to pre‐earthquake characteristics, depending on catchment properties. We also estimate that it will take at least decades and possibly up to thousands of years to remove the co‐seismic landslide materials from the catchments in the Longmen Shan. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Spatially Periodic Solute Boundary for MT3DMS and PHT3D

The assumption of spatial repetition is commonly made when producing bedform scale models of the hyporheic zone. Two popular solute transport codes, MT3DMS and PHT3D, do not currently provide the necessary boundary condition required to simulate spatial periodicity in hyporheic zone transport problems. In this study, we develop a spatially periodic boundary (SPB) for solutes that is compatible with a SPB that was previously developed for MODFLOW to simulate the flow component of spatially periodic problems. The approach is ideal for simulating groundwater flow and transport patterns under repeating surface features, such as ripples or dunes on the bottom of a lake or stream. The appropriate block‐centered finite‐difference approach to implement the boundary is presented and the necessary source code modifications are discussed. The performance of the solute SPB, operating in conjunction with the groundwater flow SPB, is explored through comparison of a multi‐bedform hyporheic‐zone model with a single bedform variant. The new boundary conditions perform well in situations where both dispersive effects and lateral seepage flux in the underflow regime beneath the hyporheic zone are minimal.     

地下洞室群对地面运动影响问题的级数解答:SH波入射

采用波函数展开法给出平面SH波入射下半空间中洞室群对地面运动影响问题的一个级数解答，并分析了入射波频率和入射角以及两洞室之间距离等参数对地面运动的影响。数值结果表明，地下洞室群对沿线地面运动具有显著的放大作用：两个洞室情况地面运动可以达到单个洞室情况的1．6倍、无洞室情况的3．5倍以上。建议地铁等地下工程在设计和规划时应考虑工程建设后对沿线设计地震动的影响。     

Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability

Uncertainty in future climate change presents a key challenge for adaptation planning. In this study, uncertainty arising from internal climate variability is investigated using a new 40-member ensemble conducted with the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3) under the SRES A1B greenhouse gas and ozone recovery forcing scenarios during 2000–2060. The contribution of intrinsic atmospheric variability to the total uncertainty is further examined using a 10,000-year control integration of the atmospheric model component of CCSM3 under fixed boundary conditions. The global climate response is characterized in terms of air temperature, precipitation, and sea level pressure during winter and summer. The dominant source of uncertainty in the simulated climate response at middle and high latitudes is internal atmospheric variability associated with the annular modes of circulation variability. Coupled ocean-atmosphere variability plays a dominant role in the tropics, with attendant effects at higher latitudes via atmospheric teleconnections. Uncertainties in the forced response are generally larger for sea level pressure than precipitation, and smallest for air temperature. Accordingly, forced changes in air temperature can be detected earlier and with fewer ensemble members than those in atmospheric circulation and precipitation. Implications of the results for detection and attribution of observed climate change and for multi-model climate assessments are discussed. Internal variability is estimated to account for at least half of the inter-model spread in projected climate trends during 2005–2060 in the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble.