Characterisation of hydroclimatological trends and variability in the Lake Naivasha basin,Kenya

Recent hydro‐climatological trends and variability characteristics were investigated for the Lake Naivasha basin with the aim of understanding the changes in water balance components and their evolution over the past 50 years. Using a Bayesian change point analysis and modified Mann–Kendall tests, time series of annual mean, maximum, minimum, and seasonal precipitation and flow, as well as annual mean lake volumes, were analysed for the period 1960–2010 to uncover possible abrupt shifts and gradual trends. Double cumulative curve analysis was used to investigate the changes in hydrological response attributable to either human influence or climatic variability. The results indicate a significant decline in lake volumes at a mean rate of 9.35 × 10⁶ m³ year^?1. Most of the river gauging stations showed no evidence of trends in the annual mean and maximum flows as well as seasonal flows. Annual minimum flows, however, showed abrupt shifts and significant (upward/downward) trends at the main outlet stations. Precipitation in the basin showed no evidence of abrupt shifts, but a few stations showed gradual decline. The observed changes in precipitation could not explain the decline in both minimum flows and lake volumes. The findings show no evidence of any impact of climate change for the Lake Naivasha basin over the past 50 years. This implies that other factors, such as changes in land cover and infrastructure development, have been responsible for the observed changes in streamflow and lake volumes. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Healthier Geographies: Mediating the Gaps between the Needs of People Living with HIV and AIDS and Health Care in Chiang Mai,Thailand

In this article, I contribute to our understanding of the plurality of approaches that construct the geographies of health care through an examination of the distribution of health care services for people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) in Chiang Mai Province, Thailand. In particular, I focus on the development of a network of support groups for PLWHA in order to examine the differences in the sociospatial organization of these groups, the practices of social actors participating in the groups' activities, and how these activities are mediated through place-based social relations. The first section of the article analyzes the spatial distribution of PLWHA support groups in relation to the distribution of AIDS cases over two time periods, 1994 and 1997. The second section goes below the surface of the spatial distribution, examining similarities and differences in PLWHA support groups through an analysis of survey data collected on thirty-five groups in 1997. The final section deepens this examination through an analysis of ethnographic data collected on the outreach efforts of one nongovernmental organization (NGO) and one PLWHA support group with which it worked. Each section offers opportunities for the extension of our understanding of the development of PLWHA support groups, their distribution in relation to the spread of AIDS cases, and their place-based meanings.     

An Observational Study of the Mesoscale Mistral Dynamics

We investigate the mesoscale dynamics of the mistral through the wind profiler observations of the MAP (autumn 1999) and ESCOMPTE (summer 2001) field campaigns. We show that the mistral wind field can dramatically change on a time scale less than 3 hours. Transitions from a deep to a shallow mistral are often observed at any season when the lower layers are stable. The variability, mainly attributed in summer to the mistral/land–sea breeze interactions on a 10-km scale, is highlighted by observations from the wind profiler network set up during ESCOMPTE. The interpretations of the dynamical mistral structure are performed through comparisons with existing basic theories. The linear theory of R. B. Smith [Advances in Geophysics, Vol. 31, 1989, Academic Press, 1–41] and the shallow water theory [Schär, C. and Smith, R. B.: 1993a, J. Atmos. Sci. 50, 1373–1400] give some complementary explanations for the deep-to-shallow transition especially for the MAP mistral event. The wave breaking process induces a low-level jet (LLJ) downstream of the Alps that degenerates into a mountain wake, which in turn provokes the cessation of the mistral downstream of the Alps. Both theories indicate that the flow splits around the Alps and results in a persistent LLJ at the exit of the Rhône valley. The LLJ is strengthened by the channelling effect of the Rhône valley that is more efficient for north-easterly than northerly upstream winds despite the north–south valley axis. Summer moderate and weak mistral episodes are influenced by land–sea breezes and convection over land that induce a very complex interaction that cannot be accurately described by the previous theories.     

Optimization of nonconventional wells under uncertainty using statistical proxies

The determination of the optimal type and placement of a nonconventional well in a heterogeneous reservoir represents a challenging optimization problem. This determination is significantly more complicated if uncertainty in the reservoir geology is included in the optimization. In this study, a genetic algorithm is applied to optimize the deployment of nonconventional wells. Geological uncertainty is accounted for by optimizing over multiple reservoir models (realizations) subject to a prescribed risk attitude. To reduce the excessive computational requirements of the base method, a new statistical proxy (which provides fast estimates of the objective function) based on cluster analysis is introduced into the optimization process. This proxy provides an estimate of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the scenario performance, which enables the quantification of proxy uncertainty. Knowledge of the proxy-based performance estimate in conjunction with the proxy CDF enables the systematic selection of the most appropriate scenarios for full simulation. Application of the overall method for the optimization of monobore and dual-lateral well placement demonstrates the performance of the hybrid optimization procedure. Specifically, it is shown that by simulating only 10% or 20% of the scenarios (as determined by application of the proxy), optimization results very close to those achieved by simulating all cases are obtained.     

On the assessment of Argo float trajectory assimilation in the Mediterranean Forecasting System

The Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS) has been operational for a decade, and is continuously providing forecasts and analyses for the region. These forecasts comprise local- and basin-scale information of the environmental state of the sea and can be useful for tracking oil spills and supporting search-and-rescue missions. Data assimilation is a widely used method to improve the forecast skill of operational models and, in this study, the three-dimensional variational (OceanVar) scheme has been extended to include Argo float trajectories, with the objective of constraining and ameliorating the numerical output primarily in terms of the intermediate velocity fields at 350 m depth. When adding new datasets, it is furthermore crucial to ensure that the extended OceanVar scheme does not decrease the performance of the assimilation of other observations, e.g., sea-level anomalies, temperature, and salinity. Numerical experiments were undertaken for a 3-year period (2005–2007), and it was concluded that the Argo float trajectory assimilation improves the quality of the forecasted trajectories with ~15%, thus, increasing the realism of the model. Furthermore, the MFS proved to maintain the forecast quality of the sea-surface height and mass fields after the extended assimilation scheme had been introduced. A comparison between the modeled velocity fields and independent surface drifter observations suggested that assimilating trajectories at intermediate depth could yield improved forecasts of the upper ocean currents.     

Reconstruction of Horizontal Plasma Motions at the Photosphere from Intensitygrams: A Comparison Between DeepVel,LCT, FLCT,and CST

Direct measurements of plasma motions in the photosphere are limited to the line-of-sight component of the velocity. Several algorithms have therefore been developed to reconstruct the transverse components from observed continuum images or magnetograms. We compare the space and time averages of horizontal velocity fields in the photosphere inferred from pairs of consecutive intensitygrams by the LCT, FLCT, and CST methods and the DeepVel neural network in order to identify the method that is best suited for generating synthetic observations to be used for data assimilation. The Stein and Nordlund (Astrophys. J. Lett.753, L13, 2012) magnetoconvection simulation is used to generate synthetic SDO/HMI intensitygrams and reference flows to train DeepVel. Inferred velocity fields show that DeepVel performs best at subgranular and granular scales and is second only to FLCT at mesogranular and supergranular scales.     

A discontinuous finite element baroclinic marine model on unstructured prismatic meshes

We describe the time discretization of a three-dimensional baroclinic finite element model for the hydrostatic Boussinesq equations based upon a discontinuous Galerkin finite element method. On one hand, the time marching algorithm is based on an efficient mode splitting. To ensure compatibility between the barotropic and baroclinic modes in the splitting algorithm, we introduce Lagrange multipliers in the discrete formulation. On the other hand, the use of implicit–explicit Runge–Kutta methods enables us to treat stiff linear operators implicitly, while the rest of the nonlinear dynamics is treated explicitly. By way of illustration, the time evolution of the flow over a tall isolated seamount on the sphere is simulated. The seamount height is 90% of the mean sea depth. Vortex shedding and Taylor caps are observed. The simulation compares well with results published by other authors.     

Coupling between progressive damage and permeability of concrete: analysis with a discrete model

A significant increase of the permeability of concrete upon micro‐cracking and a good correlation between the evolution of damage (material stiffness) and permeability are observed experimentally. The present contribution investigates this correlation theoretically, with the help of lattice analyses. Scaling analysis of lattices which contain elastic brittle bonds has shown that the material degradation should be described by the evolution of the material stiffness, or compliance, in a continuum setting (damage models). This result is reviewed and further documented in the first part of the paper. In the second part, hydro‐mechanical problems are considered with the construction of a hydraulic lattice, dual to the mechanical one. We observe that the average permeability upon micro‐cracking is the lattice scale‐independent controlling variable in the hydraulic problem. Additionally, results show that in a continuum poro‐mechanical approach, the evolution of the material permeability ought to be related to the elastic unloading stiffness, described e.g. with the help of continuum damage variables. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Atlantic remote sensing land ocean experiment (ARSLOE): Overview

ARSLOE was a multiorganization experiment held October 6-November 30, 1980, near Duck, North Carolina. It provided a large number of wind-wave and related measurements to intercompare and develop wave measurement systems, to evaluate and improve wave models, and to provide basic information on wave mechanics in shallow water. This paper provides an overview of the experiment.