Trends in Blizzards at Selected Locations on the Canadian Prairies

Climate Change is anticipatedto result in alterations in cyclone activity over the northern hemisphere. Cyclones in their passage across the open prairie of western Canada spawn one of the more extreme weather events that occur in that part of the country; blizzards. Numerous studies of individual blizzards are available. The objective of this study of blizzards is to identify trends in their seasonal occurrence, in seasonal blizzard weather element extremes, and discuss the results in the context of climate change. Criteria used in western Canada to define a blizzard event during the period of study were applied to the archive of hourly weather data for locations within the Prairie Ecozone. Blizzard events were extracted for the period 1953–1997 and analyzed for trends in seasonal occurrence. Results of this analysis are presented which illustrate a significant downward trend for weather observing locations in the more westerly part of the prairies. This trend is consistent with results found by others that indicate a decrease in cyclone frequency over western Canada. No significant trend was found in the more central and eastern locations. No significant trend was evident in seasonal extremes of blizzard weather elements at most locations.     

Hydrological Outlook UK: an operational streamflow and groundwater level forecasting system at monthly to seasonal time scales

This paper describes the development of the first operational seasonal hydrological forecasting service for the UK, the Hydrological Outlook UK (HOUK). Since June 2013, this service has delivered monthly forecasts of streamflow and groundwater levels, with an emphasis on forecasting hydrological conditions over the next three months, accompanied by outlooks over longer time horizons. This system is based on three complementary approaches combined to produce the outlooks: (i) national-scale modelling of streamflow and groundwater levels based on dynamic seasonal rainfall forecasts, (ii) catchment-scale modelling where streamflow and groundwater level models are driven by historical meteorological forcings (i.e. the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction, ESP, approach), and (iii) a catchment-scale statistical method based on persistence and historical analogues. This paper provides the background to the Hydrological Outlook, describes the various component methods in detail and then considers the impact and usefulness of the product. As an example of a multi-method, operational seasonal hydrological forecasting system, it is hoped that this overview provides useful information and context for other forecasting initiatives around the world.     

Teaching Spatial Thinking and Geospatial Technologies Through Citizen Mapping and Problem-Based Inquiry in Grades 7-12

Our project introduced students in grades 7 through 12 to spatial thinking and geospatial technologies in the context of challenges in their community. We used a mix of levels of inquiry to advance learning from teacher- to student-guided through a citizen mapping group activity. Student-suggested problem-based topics included parks and community gardens, crime, housing, and youth employment opportunities. Qualitative methods were used to evaluate students’ knowledge of spatial thinking and geospatial technologies, including map interpretation, a case study, daily exit slips, and interviews. Overall, the students’ awareness of their community, spatial thinking, and geospatial technologies increased as a result of participation.     

The reclassification of the suspected R coronae borealis star SY hyi as a semiregular variable

SY Hyi is classified as a suspected R Coronae Borealis-type variable star. Photometric and spectroscopic observations of SY Hyi lead to the star’s reclassification as a semiregular variable of spectral type M5-6.     

Linking large-parallax Spitzer–CFHT–VLT astrometry of asteroids

We show that the new ephemeris-space multiple-address-comparison (eMAC) method solves asteroid linking problems despite large parallaxes by applying the method to astrometric asteroid observation sets obtained nearly simultaneously with the Spitzer space telescope, the Canada–France–Hawaii Telescope (CFHT), and European Southern Observatory's Very Large Telescope (VLT). For main-belt asteroids, the parallax between Spitzer and the Earth-based telescopes is approximately one degree which is large as compared to a typical parallax for solely Earth-based telescopes in the arcseconds regime. In the eMAC method, we reduce the initially huge amount of possible linkages between observation sets by comparing samples of ephemerides that have been computed separately for all sets at, say, three common dates. If the non-zero ephemeris probability densities overlap at all common dates, we try to find an orbit solution for these so-called trial linkages. If there exists an orbit which reproduces all the astrometric observations assuming predefined observational errors, we call it a linkage. Known asteroids are independently identified among Spitzer, CFHT, and VLT astrometry, and comparing the identified observations to the linkages found shows that the method found all known correct linkages present in the data. In addition, we also found five previously unpublished linkages between Spitzer astrometry and Earth-based astrometry. Based on our simulations, we found virtually all Spitzer-related linkages between two single-night observation sets, and more than 99.4% of linkages between two single-night observation sets obtained by Earth-based observatories. Virtually all correct linkages consisting of at least three single-night sets were also detected. The results show that large-parallax discovery observations made from a spacecraft can be linked to Earth-based follow-up observations to ensure that the objects are not lost. Furthermore, we compute the heliocentric and Spitzer-centric distances as well as the corresponding solar phase angles at the dates of Spitzer observations. Based on comparisons to simulated geocentric observations, we also show that, for typical nearly-simultaneous observations, the parallax reduces the distance uncertainties by several orders of magnitude.     

Pulsation–decline relationships in R Coronae Borealis stars

Decline onset times were measured in long-term visual light curves for five R Coronae Borealis (RCB) variable stars. These included RY Sgr and V854 Cen, the two RCB stars previously reported to have a relationship between dust formation events and pulsational variations. Analysis of the decline epochs showed that all decline onsets for a given star obey a linear ephemeris tied to the object's dominant radial pulsation period. Thus, in addition to confirming the pulsation–decline correlation for RY Sgr and V854 Cen, this same behaviour was demonstrated in UW Cen, R CrB and S Aps for the first time. This general result firmly establishes the connection between radial pulsation and mass loss in the RCB stars. The dominant pulsation period of ≈40 d for all of these objects therefore represents the characteristic time-scale on which these stars produce dust.     

Aircraft investigations of an As-Cs cloud system in the arctic

Results of aircraft investigations of the microphysical structure and properties of an As-Cs cloud system in the Arctic are presented. Data were collected over the Beaufort Sea using the US National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) C-130 research aircraft. One of the modern sets of instruments was used to study the microphysical cloud structure. It was found that the clouds consisted of several layers of limited horizontal length. Spherical crystals were the prevailing habit. A decrease in their concentration with height decrease was discovered. Measurements of particle size spectra indicate their significant inhomogeneity. Spectra parametrization was carried out with the help of a gamma distribution for particles less smaller than 50 μm and exponential distribution for particles larger than 50 μm.     

Clay mineral‐organic matter relationships in the early solar system

Abstract— As the solar system formed, it inherited and perpetuated a rich organic chemistry, the molecular products of which are preserved in ancient extraterrestrial objects such as carbonaceous chondrites. These organic‐rich meteorites provide a valuable and tangible record of the chemical steps taken towards the origin of life in the early solar system. Chondritic organic matter is present in the inorganic meteorite matrix which, in the CM and CI chondrites, contains evidence of alteration by liquid water on the parent asteroid. An unanswered and fundamental question is to what extent did the organic matter and inorganic products of aqueous alteration interact or display interdependence? We have used an organic labelling technique to reveal that the meteoritic organic matter is strongly associated with clay minerals. This association suggests that clay minerals may have had an important trapping and possibly catalytic role in chemical evolution in the early solar system prior to the origin of life on the early Earth.     

Short-period line profile variations in the Be star ε Cap

We present new high-dispersion spectroscopic data for the Be star ε Cap. The purpose of these data is to study the short-period line profile variations. By using a two-dimensional period-finding technique, we confirm that the photometric period of 0.99 d is present in the helium line profiles. We show that the variations are not easily explained by non-radial pulsation and suggest that corotating circumstellar material is responsible.