“国际地球年”进展

人类生存与发展的基本关系是人与自然的关系,社会可持续发展的基础是自然支撑系统。因此,人类社会必须对赖以生存的地球深入完整地了解并合理地使用。然而,在经历了近300多年科学技术发展所带来的工业革命之后,人类社会才逐步意识到地球所能供给的自然资源正出现危机,我们赖以生存的环境正受到人为作用越发严重的破坏,随着社会财富的快速增长与聚集,自然灾害所造成的损失也越来越大。[第一段]     

Optical variability of the blazar S4 0954+658 in 2008–2012

The results of multi-color photometric and polarization observations of the blazar S4 0954+658 carried out mainly in the Astronomical Institute of St. Petersburg State University and the Central Astronomical Observatory of the Russian Academy of Sciences in 2008–2012 are analyzed. Individual variable components that are responsible for the activity are distinguished; the power-law spectrum and high degree of polarization confirm that the emission is synchrotron radiation. Modeling the observed dependences between the parameters of the polarization and intensity is used to derive parameters of both the constant and the variable components of the radiation. The observed color variability (“the brighter, the bluer”) can be explained by the superposition of a red constant component and a bluer variable component with a constant relative spectral energy distribution.     

Prüfstrategie zur Bewertung potentiell erbgutverändernder Wasserinhaltsstoffe unter Einsatz gentoxikologischer Methoden

Assessment and Characterization of Genotoxic Water Contaminants with Modern Genotoxicological Methods The necessity of genotoxicological studies in water requires modern and practicable concepts for a prospective environmental protection. Up to now, genotoxicological studies prefer only the observation and detection of basic genotoxic effects in enriched surface water samples and the fruitless search for the involved water contaminants. In this publication, a new test strategy for the detection and the assessment of genotoxicity in water will be introduced. This strategy allows the detection and the verification of positive results and is therefore able to assess the evidence of these results for the water quality more accurate. The aim of this strategy is the detection of basic genotoxic effects (primary DNA damages), the clarification of the biological mechanisms, and the search for the reasons with modern analytical methods. The involved water contaminants and their mode of action will then be better understood. A test strategy in three steps will be proposed. In the first step genotoxicological indicator tests such as comet assay, alkaline filter elution, or the SOS-umu-test are used to get information about the basic status of the tested water samples. In the second step, the positive results of the primary DNA damages will be verified with mutation tests such as the micronucleus assay. The involved biological mechanisms will be biochemically characterized, and the biological active substances will be preclassified. Finally, in the third step the observed mechanisms will be confirmed with modern chemical methods such as HPLC MS-MS. These modern techniques are also able to detect and quantify the genotoxic compounds preclassified in step two.     

Effect of bed load supply on sediment transport in mountain streams

Mountain streams with their tributary torrents build the upper part of the fluvial network. They are important regarding the transfer of sediment from headwaters to lower basins. Channels are typically steep with wide grain size distributions, ranging from fine sand up to large boulders, and a stabilized bed surface. Mountain streams often are supply-limited with respect to mobile bed load, which needs to be addressed when bed load transport equations are applied to such streams. To better understand supply limitation, laboratory experiments highlighting the effect of bed load supply on incipient motion and bed load transport rate are discussed. Experimental tests were done in which fine bed load was supplied to a previously armored channel bed, with flow conditions ranging from one-third to twice the critical dis-charge for the bed surface. At flows not exceeding the critical discharge, the time series of the bed load transport rate at the downstream model boundary featured consistent patterns which are attributed to distinct phases: (i) a temporal lag, (ii) an equilibrium state, and (iii) a post-supply phase. Bed load transport occurred even at flows distinctly below that for incipient motion of the bed surface. But, with the mass of total bed load outflow approaching the supply amount, the mass did not exclusively consist of supplied grains. The coarser the supplied bed load, the more sediment was mobilized from the bed surface. At higher flows, processes differed. Total bed load outflow exceeded the supply amount and the break-up of the armor layer caused a refining of the bed surface.     

Analysis of the influence of parameter and scale uncertainties on a local multi-criteria land use evaluation model

Land use evaluation involves careful consideration of several environmental factors and their relative importance quantified by factor weights. Local multi-criteria evaluation provides a mechanism for computing factor (criteria) weights within local neighborhoods that capture spatial heterogeneity and contribute to more accurate evaluation results. The accuracy of results, however, is tempered by the potential uncertainty of criteria weights. The paper presents a spatially explicit approach to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of local criteria weights and modeling scale on the variability of model output. The efficacy of the approach is presented on the example of Environmental Benefit Index (EBI) model used by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) to select environmentally sensitive agricultural areas for conservation. The uncertainty analysis resulted in identifying robust areas for CRP selection characterized by high suitability and low uncertainty. The sensitivity analysis focused on the next-best group of candidates characterized by high suitability and high uncertainty. The results show that there is a relationship between spatial heterogeneity, data representation scale, and the level of uncertainty in the results of EBI model. The sensitivity of model output can be attributed to both the uncertainty of criteria weights and the modeling scale. A potential practical value of this approach is the improved analytical support for land suitability evaluation requiring a consideration of sub-optimal land units (high suitability/high uncertainty). Also, this approach can guide modelling effort by allowing the analyst to visualize spatial distribution and patterns of model output uncertainty and focus data collection on influential model input factors.     

Selection of the data time interval for the prediction of maximum ozone concentrations

This paper highlights the problem of step-length selection for the one-step-ahead prediction of ozone called the data time interval. This is done using a case study-based comparison of two approaches for predicting the maximum daily values of tropospheric ozone. The first approach is the 1-day-ahead prediction and the second is the prediction of the maximum values based on a multi-step-ahead iteration of 1-h predictions. Gaussian process modelling is utilised for this comparison. In particular, evolving Gaussian-process models are used that update on-line with the incoming measurement data. These sorts of models have been successfully used in the past for the prediction of ozone pollution. This paper contributes an assessment of the way that the maximum ozone values are predicted. A comparison of the daily maximum ozone values forecasted by a model based on 1-day-ahead predictions with those obtained by iterated 1-h-ahead predictions of the ozone with predictions at predetermined hours of the day is given. The forecast results are in favour of the on-line model based on hourly predictions when approaching closer to the real maximum values of ozone, and in favour of the daily predictions when they are made on a daily basis.     

Climate change scenarios of heat waves in Central Europe and their uncertainties

The study examines climate change scenarios of Central European heat waves with a focus on related uncertainties in a large ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the EURO-CORDEX and ENSEMBLES projects. Historical runs (1970–1999) driven by global climate models (GCMs) are evaluated against the E-OBS gridded data set in the first step. Although the RCMs are found to reproduce the frequency of heat waves quite well, those RCMs with the coarser grid (25 and 50 km) considerably overestimate the frequency of severe heat waves. This deficiency is improved in higher-resolution (12.5 km) EURO-CORDEX RCMs. In the near future (2020–2049), heat waves are projected to be nearly twice as frequent in comparison to the modelled historical period, and the increase is even larger for severe heat waves. Uncertainty originates mainly from the selection of RCMs and GCMs because the increase is similar for all concentration scenarios. For the late twenty-first century (2070–2099), a substantial increase in heat wave frequencies is projected, the magnitude of which depends mainly upon concentration scenario. Three to four heat waves per summer are projected in this period (compared to less than one in the recent climate), and severe heat waves are likely to become a regular phenomenon. This increment is primarily driven by a positive shift of temperature distribution, but changes in its scale and enhanced temporal autocorrelation of temperature also contribute to the projected increase in heat wave frequencies.     

Age and geochemical constraints for partial melting of granulites in Estonia

Summary The rocks of the crystalline basement of the East European Craton in southern Estonia show effects of partial melting under granulite facies conditions. Zircons extracted from partial melting products (tonalite from the Tapa Zone – 1824 ± 26, tonalite from the South Estonian Zone – 1788 ± 16 Ma and charnockite from the Tapa Zone – 1761 ± 11 Ma) yield U–Pb crystallisation ages that span over approximately 80 Ma, suggesting a prolonged high-grade metamorphism or several separate events. U–Pb zircon age of one sample of charnockite is concordant with the Nd model age of partial melting of its host mafic granulite facies gneiss (intercept at 1.76 Ga). Linear geochemical trends and similar initial Nd isotopic compositions of mafic granulites and charnockites suggest their possible genetic relationship. From our new and previously published data it follows that the peak granulite metamorphic conditions and formation of tonalites and charnockites (850 °C and 6 kbar) in the Estonian basement occurred at 1788–1778 Ma. Then, the rocks cooled down, passing through the garnet closure temperature of approximately 650–700 °C at 1728 ± 24 Ma. The age of metamorphism of the Estonian granulites is lower than the metamorphic ages known from southern Finland, but it is similar to the age of metamorphism reported from the Belarus-Baltic Granulite Belt in Latvia.     

青藏工程走廊热融湖湖底热状态

热融湖塘对寒区环境可产生较大影响, 其侧向热侵蚀会诱发冻土工程病害.选取青藏工程走廊热融湖塘分布密集的楚玛尔河、五道梁、北麓河3个亚区, 于2009—2010年通过HOBO水位传感器对4个固定湖塘的连续监测和大量湖塘的随机观测, 探讨了不同季节、不同水深湖底的热状态.在结冰期的1月中旬, 楚玛尔河90%以上的湖塘湖底温度都在0 ℃以下, 主要与湖塘较浅和湖水高矿化度有关.五道梁和北麓河湖底温度相对较高, 只有约20%的湖底温度低于0 ℃, 这些湖水深小于最大冻结冰层厚度; 最高温度高于4 ℃, 主要与湖较深有关.但3个亚区湖底温度均随着水深增加而增加.在6~9月融冰期, 湖底温度普遍增加, 最高达到18 ℃以上, 浅湖增温快于深湖, 湖底温度随着水深增加而递减.湖底温度年际变化近似为正弦曲线, 在1~2月, 湖底温度最低, 之后逐渐升高, 到7~8月, 湖底温度达到最高.