Comparative study of statistical methods to identify a predictor for discharge at Orsova in the Lower Danube Basin

ABSTRACT

The aims of this study are to investigate the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation quantified by indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAOI), the Greenland-Balkan Oscillation index (GBOI) and blocking-type indices on the Lower Danube discharge. We separately analysed each season for the 1948–2000 period. In addition to the statistical linear procedure, we applied methods to quantify nonlinear connections between variables, as mutual information between predictors and predictand, using Shannon’s information entropy theory. The nonlinear correlation information between climate indices and discharge is higher than that obtained from the linear measure, providing more insight into real connections. Also, the non-stationarity of the link between variables is highlighted by spectral coherence based on wavelet analysis. For the physical interpretation, we analyse composite maps over the Atlantic-European region. The most significant influence on the discharge of the Lower Danube Basin is given by the GBOI and blocking-type atmospheric circulation over Europe.     

Mechanics of normal fault networks subject to slip-weakening friction

We seek to understand how the stress interactions and the slip-weakening process combine within a non-coplanar, normal fault network to allow a slip instability to develop, and shape the final slip distribution on the system. In a first part, we perform a non-linear spectral analysis to investigate the conditions of stability and the process of slip initiation in an antiplane non-coplanar fault system subject to a slip-dependent friction law. That numerical model allows determining the zones that are able to slip within a fault network, as well as the location of the stress singularities. The resulting slip profiles on the faults show only a few different shapes, some of them with long, linear sections. This leads to formulate a general classification of slip profiles that can be used to infer the degree of fault interaction within any non-coplanar system. In a second part of work, we use our modelling to try reproducing the cumulative slip profiles measured on three real normal interacting faults forming a large-scale en echelon system. For that, we assume that cumulative slip profiles can be compared to the first static modal solution of our conceptual model. We succeed reproducing the profiles quite well using a variable weakening along the faults. Overall, the weakening rate decreases in the direction of propagation of the fault system. Yet, modelling the slip along the propagating, isolated termination segment of the system requires an unlikely distribution of weakening. This suggests that factors not considered in our analysis may contribute to slip profile shaping on isolated, propagating faults.