Forest fragmentation and human population varies logarithmically along elevation gradient in Hindu Kush Himalaya - utility of geospatial tools and free data set

Hindu Kush Himalaya(HKH) is the largest and the most diverse mountain region in the world that provides ecosystem services to one fifth of the total world population. The forests are fragmented to different degrees due to expansion and intensification of human land use. However, the quantitative relationship between fragmentation and demography has not been established before for HKH vis-à-vis along elevation gradient. We used the globally available tree canopy cover data derived from Landsat-TM satellite to find out the decadal forest cover change over 2000 to 2010 and their corresponding fragmentation levels. Using SRTMderived DEM, we observed high forest cover loss up to2400 m that highly corroborated with the population distribution pattern as derived from satellite observation. In general, forest cover loss was found to be higher in south-eastern part of HKH. Forest fragmentation obtained using ‘area-weighted mean radius of gyration' as indicator, was found to be very high up to 2400 m that also corroborated with high human population for the year 2000 and 2010. We observed logarithmic decrease in fragmentation change(area-weighted mean radius of gyration value),forest cover loss and population growth during 2000-2010 along the elevation gradient with very high R~2 values(i.e., 0.889, 0.895, 0.944 respectively). Our finding on the pattern of forest fragmentation and human population across the elevation gradient in HKH region will have policy level implication for different nations and would help in characterizing hotspots of change. Availability of free satellite derived data products on forest cover and DEM, griddata on demography, and utility of geospatial tools helped in quick evaluation of the forest fragmentation vis-a-vis human impact pattern along the elevation gradient in HKH.     

Predicting suitable habitat of an invasive weed Parthenium hysterophorus under future climate scenarios in Chitwan Annapurna Landscape,Nepal

Chitwan-Annapuma Landscape(CHAL)in central Nepal is known for its rich biodiversity and the landscape is expected to provide corridors for species range shift in response to climate change.Environmental assessments have identified biological invasions and other anthropogenic activities as major threats to the biodiversity in the CHAL.One of the rapidly spreading Invasive Alien Plant species(IAPs)in the CHAL is Parthenium hysterophorus L.,a neotropical invasive weed of global significance.This study aimed to investigate the current and future projected suitable habitat of P.hysterophorus in the CHAL using MaxEnt modelling in three"Representative Concentration Pathways"(RCPs 2.6,4.5 and 8.5)corresponding to different greenhouse gases emissiontrajectories for the year 2050 and 2070.A total of 288species occurrence points,six bioclimatic variablesmean diurnal range,isothermality,annual precipitation,precipitation of driest month,precipitation seasonality,precipitation of driest quarter and two topographic variables(aspect and slope)were selected for MaxEnt modelling.Potential range shift in terms of increase or decline in the suitable habitat areas under the projected scenarios were calculated.Slope and annual precipitation were the most important variables that explained the current distribution of P.hysterophorus.Twenty percent of the total area of CHAL was predicted to be suitable habitat for the growth of P.hysterophorus in the current climatic condition.Highest gain in the suitable habitat of this noxious weed was found under RCP 4.5 scenario in 2050 and 2070.whereas there will be a loss in thesuitable habitat under RCP 8.5 scenario in 2050 and2070.Out of four physiographic regions present in CHAL,three regions-Siwalik,Middle Mountain and High Mountain have suitable habitat for P.hysterophorus under current climatic condition.The mountainous region is likely to be affected more than the Siwalik region by further spread of P.fhysteropfhorus in the future under low(RCP 2.6)to medium(RCP 4.5)emission scenarios.The suitable habitat for this weed is likely to increase in the protected areas of mountain regions(Langtang National Park,Annapurna Conservation Area and Manaslu Conservation Area)in the future.The results have revealed a risk of spreading P.hysterophorus from present localities to non-invaded areas in the current and future climatic condition.Such risk needs to be considered by decision makers and resource managers while planning for effective management of this weed to reduce its ecological and economic impacts in the CHAL.     

Assessment of Data Assimilation Approaches for the Simulation of a Monsoon Depression Over the Indian Monsoon Region

A low pressure system that formed on 21 September 2006 over eastern India/Bay of Bengal intensified into a monsoon depression resulting in copious rainfall over north-eastern and central parts of India. Four numerical experiments are performed to examine the performance of assimilation schemes in simulating this monsoon depression using the Fifth Generation Mesoscale Model (MM5). Forecasts from a base simulation (with no data assimilation), a four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) system, a simple surface data assimilation (SDA) system coupled with FDDA, and a flux-adjusting SDA system (FASDAS) coupled with FDDA are compared with each other and with observations. The model is initialized with Global Forecast System (GFS) forecast fields starting from 19 September 2006, with assimilation being done for the first 24 hours using conventional observations, sounding and surface data of temperature and moisture from Advanced TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder satellite and surface wind data over the ocean from QuikSCAT. Forecasts are then made from these assimilated states. In general, results indicate that the FASDAS forecast provides more realistic prognostic fields as compared to the other three forecasts. When compared with other forecasts, results indicate that the FASDAS forecast yielded lower root-mean-square (r.m.s.) errors for the pressure field and improved simulations of surface/near-surface temperature, moisture, sensible and latent heat fluxes, and potential vorticity. Heat and moisture budget analyses to assess the simulation of convection revealed that the two forecasts with the surface data assimilation (SDA and FASDAS) are superior to the base and FDDA forecasts. An important conclusion is that, even though monsoon depressions are large synoptic systems, mesoscale features including rainfall are affected by surface processes. Enhanced representation of land-surface processes provides a significant improvement in the model performance even under active monsoon conditions where the synoptic forcings are expected to be dominant.     

Quantifying the Spatial Variability of Surface Fluxes Using Data from the 2002 International H2O Project

Spatial variability in the exchange of energy and moisture is a key control on numerous atmospheric, hydrologic, and environmental processes. Using observations made on fair weather days during the 2002 International H2O Project, four methods for quantifying the spatial variability of surface fluxes are investigated. The first two methods utilize applied statistical techniques to describe the spatial variability of the surface fluxes, while the third method is a geostatistical technique rooted in variography. Typically, the methods yield similar results, with median values of horizontal variability consistent to within 5%. The geostatistical technique, however, provides much more information than the other statistical methods; it not only provides an estimate of the spatial variability, but also provides estimates of the total variability, the non-spatial variability due to measurement error, and the range of spatial correlation among the data points. The fourth method is based on the relationship between the components of the surface energy budget. This method describes the variability in the fluxes in terms of the slope of the best-fit line relating the time-averaged latent and sensible heat fluxes from different locations along the flight path. The meaning of the slopes can also be interpreted in terms of the spatial variability in the available energy. For four of the five days analyzed, the key control on the spatial variability in the turbulent heat fluxes was horizontal variability in the soil heat flux. In turn, the soil heat flux varied as a function of surface properties including surface temperature, soil moisture content, and leaf area index. On the remaining day, 25 May, the primary control was the variability in net radiation.     

Remote sensing applications in the study of landuse and soils of aeolian cover op the western part of Haryana State

Multispectral and multitemporal landsat-FCC of 1:250,000 and transparancies on 1:1000,000 scales of bands 4, 5, 6 and 7 were interepreted to identify and delineate the areas under varying intensities of dunal activity in the western part of Haryana State comprising an area of 12610 sq. km. CCTs of some representative areas were also interpreted on the Multispectral Interactive Data Analysis System. Field checks were made to correlate the laboratory interpretation and the ground truth. The study areas were differentiated into the following units: (1) Sandy desert zone: No cultivation on dune tops except some shrubs, (2) Aeolian cover with sandy hummocks: low intensity cultivation, (3) Plain with aeolian cover: moderately cultivated, (4) Plain: Moderately to intensively cultivated. The major soils in association were Typic Torripsamments/Ustipsamments/Ustorthents/Ustifluvents/Calciorthids and Natric Camborthids.