A Prediction of the Peak Sunspot Number for Solar Cycle 23

We use a precursor technique based on the geomagneticaa index during the decline (last 30%) of solar cycle 22 to predict a peak sunspot number of 158 (± 18) for cycle 23, under the assumption that solar minimum occurred in May 1996. This method appears to be as reliable as those that require a year of data surrounding the geomagnetic minimum, which typically follows the smoothed sunspot minimum by about six months.     

Middle and late Holocene climate change and human impact inferred from diatoms,algae and aquatic macrophyte pollen in sediments from Lake Montcortès (NE Iberian Peninsula)

During the middle and late Holocene, the Iberian Peninsula underwent large climatic and hydrologic changes, but the temporal resolution and regional distribution of available palaeoenvironmental records is still insufficient for a comprehensive assessment of the regional variability. The high sedimentation rate in karstic, meromictic Montcortès Lake (Catalan pre-Pyrenees) allows for a detailed reconstruction of the regional palaeoecology over the last 5,340 years using diatom analysis, aquatic pollen, sedimentological data, and historic documentary records. Results show marked fluctuations in diatom species assemblage composition, mainly between dominant Cyclotella taxa and small Fragilariales. We suggest that the conspicuous alternation between Cyclotella comta and C. cyclopuncta reflects changes in trophic state, while the succession of centric and pennate species most likely reflects changes in the hydrology of the lake. The diatom assemblages were used to identify six main phases: (1) high productivity and likely lower lake levels before 2350 BC, (2) lower lake levels and a strong arid phase between 2350 and 1850 BC, (3) lake level increase between 1850 and 850 BC, (4) relatively high lake level with fluctuating conditions during the Iberian and Roman Epochs (650 BC–350 AD), (5) lower lake levels, unfavourable conditions for diatom preservation, eutrophication and erosion triggered by increased human activities in the watershed during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (900–1300 AD), and (6) relatively higher lake levels during the LIA (1380–1850 AD) and afterwards. The combined study of diatoms, algae and pollen provides a detailed reconstruction of past climate, which refines understanding of regional environmental variability and interactions between climate and socio-economic conditions in the Pyrenees.     

Spectro-Polarimetric Observations and Non-Lte Modeling of Ellerman Bombs

Ellerman bombs are bright emission features observed in the wings of Hα, usually in the vicinity of magnetic concentrations. Here we show that they can also be detected in the Ca II infrared triplet lines, which are easier to interpret and therefore allow for more detailed diagnostics. We present full Stokes observations of the 849.8 and 854.2 nm lines acquired with the new spectro-polarimeter SPINOR. The data show no significant linear polarization at the level of 3 × 10⁻⁴. The circular polarization profiles exhibit measureable signals with a very intricate pattern of peaks. A non-LTE analysis of the spectral profiles emerging from these features reveals the presence of strong downflows (∼10 {km s⁻¹}) in a hot layer between the upper photosphere and the lower chromosphere. Visiting Astronomers, National Solar Observatory, operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc. (AURA), under cooperative agreement with the National Science Foundation. The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is sponsored by the National Science Foundation, USA.