Estimating coseismic deformations from near source strong motion records: methods and case studies

Digital strong-motion accelerographs have opened up the possibility of extracting ground motion characteristics at much lower frequencies than was offered by analogue instruments. High-quality digital data obtained close to the faults have tempted several efforts to retrieve permanent ground displacements after an earthquake. Such attempts have been partly successful, and somewhat subjective, the main reason being the presence of baseline offsets in the accelerometric data. We review existing methods for such applications, discuss their limitations and propose a more objective and improved scheme to make baseline adjustments and obtain permanent displacements. The proposed technique is applied to 26 digital recordings from the 29 May 2008 Ölfus Earthquake in South Iceland and 9 recordings from the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, Earthquake, and the permanent displacements obtained are compared with published results and GPS measurements from nearby stations. Our case studies show that the proposed technique, in addition to being simple and objective, is effective in making adjustments for baseline errors in accelerometric data.     

Late Quaternary paleoclimate of western Alaska inferred from fossil chironomids and its relation to vegetation histories

Fossil Chironomidae assemblages (with a few Chaoboridae and Ceratopogonidae) from Zagoskin and Burial Lakes in western Alaska provide quantitative reconstructions of mean July air temperatures for periods of the late-middle Wisconsin (～39,000–34,000 cal yr B.P.) to the present. Inferred temperatures are compared with previously analyzed pollen data from each site summarized here by indirect ordination. Paleotemperature trends reveal substantial differences in the timing of climatic warming following the late Wisconsin at each site, although chronological uncertainty exists. Zagoskin Lake shows early warming beginning at about 21,000 cal yr B.P., whereas warming at Burial Lake begins ～4000 years later. Summer climates during the last glacial maximum (LGM) were on average ～3.5 °C below the modern temperatures at each site. Major shifts in vegetation occurred from ～19,000 to 10,000 cal yr B.P. at Zagoskin Lake and from ～17,000 to 10,000 cal yr B.P. at Burial Lake. Vegetation shifts followed climatic warming, when temperatures neared modern values. Both sites provide evidence of an early postglacial thermal maximum at ～12,300 cal yr B.P. These chironomid records, combined with other insect-based climatic reconstructions from Beringia, indicate that during the LGM: (1) greater continentality likely influenced regions adjacent to the Bering Land Bridge and (2) summer climates were, at times, not dominated by severe cold.     

Fractional Crystallization and Liquid Immiscibility Processes in the Alkaline-Carbonatite Complex of Juqui (So Paulo, Brazil)

The Juqui circular intrusion, which is Cretaceous in age (130–135Ma), crops out in the Precambrian gneissic basement in Brazilover an area of 14 km2. It consists of olivine clinopyroxen-itecumulates (with minor olivine gabbros) in the northeastern sector(74 vol.%), whereas ijolites-melteigites-urtites (4%) and nephelinesyenites with minor essexites and syenodiorites (21%) outlinesubannular concentric patterns with an Mg-carbonatite core (1%), in the southwestern part of the complex. Petrographical, bulk rock, and mineral compositional trendsindicate that the origin of the complex can be largely accountedfor by shallow-level fractional crystallization of a carbonatedbasanitic parental magma. Such a magma was generated deep inthe subcontinental lithosphere by low-degree partial meltingof a garnet-phlogopite peridotite source. Mass-balance calculations in agreement with field volume estimatespermit definition of several fractionation stages of the magmaticevolution under nearly closed-system conditions, with inwarddevelopment of zonally arranged side-wall cumulates. These stagesinvolved: (1) fractionation from basanite to essexite magma(liquid fraction F = 33–5%) by crystallization of olivineclinopyroxenite plus minor olivine alkali gabbro cumulates;(2) derivation of the least differentiated mafic nepheline syenite(F = 5–5 %) from essexitic magma by subtraction of a syenodioriteassemblage; (3) exsolution of a carbonatite liquid (5%) froma CO₂-enriched mafic nepheline syenite magma, which also underwentcontinuous fractionation giving rise to ijolite-melteigite-urtitecumulates. The proportion of cumulus clinopyroxene and biotiteand intercumulus nepheline and alkali feldspar in these lastrocks, as well as the absence of alkalis in carbonatite, maybe attributed, at least in part, to loss of alkali-rich hydrousfluids released during and after the unmixing formation of thetwo conjugate liquids. The KD values determined for Mg-carbonatite/nepheline syeniteare lower (1–4–2–9) for light rare earth elements(LREE) than for REE from Eu to Yb (4–6–7–8),in contrast to recent experimental results (Hamilton et al.,1989). A possible explanation is that Juquia Mg-carbonatiterepresents an alreadydifferentiated magma, which underwent extensivefractionation of LREE-enriched calcite. In this way, the highvariability of K₀ REE patterns observed in several alkaline-carbonatitecomplexes can also be accounted for. The remarkably constant initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios (mostly between0–7052 and 0–7057) support the interpretation ofthe intrusion as having been generated by fractrional crystallizationand liquid immiscibility from a common parental magma. Iligherisotopic ratios (0–7060–0–7078), found mainlyin dykes and in the border facies of the intrusion, may be dueto contamination by the gecissic basement.     

Particulate dispersion from sources within a forest

Particulate dispersion from sources within a 10- to 13-m tall pine forest was studied experimentally at Brookhaven National Laboratory using stained ragweed pollen and other tracers ranging from 14 to 58 m in size. Forty-seven continuous point source releases lasting from 22 to 55 min were made at heights from 1.75 to 14.0 m from locations having a long fetch through the forest. In most experiments, differently colored ragweed pollen were emitted simultaneously from three locations. In other tests, several particle types were released from a single point. The sampling network consisted of 119 rotoslide samplers at heights from 0.5 to 21.0 m at 57 positions within and at the edge of the forest. Deposition to the ground was sampled by greased microscope slides at each position. Meteorological measurements were taken in and near the forest.Data were classified by particle characteristics, source height and meteorological parameters. Concentration patterns were illustrated on scale diagrams of the sampling grid. Changes in centerline and crosswind integrated concentrations, plume width and height, mass flux, deposition and deposition velocity were studied as a function of distance, particle size and wind speed. Results were compared to those obtained from similar releases over open terrain.In the forest, vertical predominates over lateral dispersion and considerable interchange occurs through the canopy. Flow is channelled somewhat by vegetation density differences but is generally in the direction of the mean wind above the forest. No systematic turning of the wind with height was observed. Most particles are lost to the foliage rather than to the ground and large particles are lost more rapidly than smaller ones. Rate of change in mass flux is similar to that over open terrain and is greater with light than with stronger wind speeds.This research was carried out under the auspices of the New York State Museum and Science Service and the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission (now Energy Research and Development Administration) and was partially supported by Research Grant No. R-800677 from the Division of Meteorology, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.     

New Models for Long Range Forecasts of Summer Monsoon Rainfall over North West and Peninsular India

Summary New models based on (a) Multivariate Principal Component Regression (PCR) (b) Neural Network (NN) and (c) Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) techniques were developed for long-range forecasts of summer monsoon (June–September) rainfall over two homogeneous regions of India, viz., North West India and Peninsular India. The PCR and NN models were developed with two different data sets. One set consisted 42 years (1958–1999) of data with 8 predictors and the other, 49 years (1951–1999) of data with 6 predictors. The predictors were subjected to the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) before model development. Two different neural networks were designed with 2 and 3 hidden neurons. To avoid the nonlinear instability, 20 ensemble runs were made while training the network and the ensemble mean results are discussed. The LDA model was developed with 42 years of data (1958–1999) for classifying three rainfall intervals with equal prior probability of 0.33. Both the PCR and NN models showed useful forecast skill for NW India and Peninsular India. Models with 8 predictors performed better than the models with only 6 predictors. The NN model with 3 hidden neurons performed better than model with 2 hidden neurons. For NW India, the NN model performed better than the PCR model. The RMSE of the NN model and PCR model with 8 predictors for NW India (Peninsular India) during the independent period 1984–99 was 12.5% (12.2%) and 12.6% (11.5%), respectively. Corresponding figures for the models with 6 predictors are 15.0% (13.0%) and 13.9% (11.4%) respectively. During the independent period, model errors were large in 1991, 1994, 1997 and 1999. However all the models showed deteriorating predictive skill after 1988, both for NW India and Peninsular India. The LDA model correctly classified 62% of grouped cases for NW India and Peninsular India. The LDA model showed better skill in classifying deficient rainfall (< − 8%) over NW India and excess rainfall (> 3%) over Peninsular India. Received October 2, 1999 Revised December 28, 1999     

The Role of Forests in the Implementation of Russia’s Low-Carbon Development Strategy

Doklady Earth Sciences - The potential role of forests in achieving carbon neutrality in the Russian Federation by 2060 is analyzed. It is shown that the key rate in the Strategy for the...     

Stability and phase relations of nonstoichiometric clinopyroxenes in the join diopside-Ca-Eskola component at high pressures

The stability of nonstoichiometric clinopyroxenes in the Di-CaEsk join was experimentally studied, and phase diagrams were constructed for this join at pressures of 2.0 and 3.0 GPa. It was found that melting in the diopside part of the join occurs at anomalously low temperatures, and nonstoichiometric clinopyroxene coexists with a phase approaching diopside in composition. Phase relations along the Di-CaEsk join can be described and consistently interpreted only assuming that the diopside phase (α-diopside) is thermodynamically stable. The following phase volumes were observed along the solidus of the join at a pressure of 3.0 GPa: Cpx, αDi+Cpx, αDi+Cpx+Qtz, αDi+Cpx+Grt+Qtz, Cpx+Grt+Qtz, Cpx+Grt+Ky+Qtz, Grt+Ky+Qtz. Melting occurs via the eutectic reaction αDi+Cpx+Grt+Qtz=L at a temperature of about 1200°C in the diopside part of the system and via the eutectic reaction Cpx+Grt+Ky+Qtz=L at a temperature of 1400°C in the calcium-rich part of the system. At a pressure of 2.0 GPa, melting occurs at temperatures of 1200–1300°C via the eutectic reaction αDi+Cpx+ An + Qtz=L. The invariant equilibrium (L, An, Cpx, Grt, αDi, Qtz) lies within the pressure range 2.0–3.0 GPa. Nonstoichiometric clinopyroxenes form complex solid solutions, the compositions of which are not strictly confined to the Di-CaEsk join and depend on temperature, pressure, and phase association. Grossular garnets coexist with nonstoichiometric clinopyroxenes and α-diopside.     

Deep structure of the Racha earthquake source zone from seismic tomography data

The Racha earthquake of 1991 was the strongest of the earthquakes recorded in the Caucasus. It was studied by an international epicentral expedition. Unique data gathered by this expedition included records of aftershocks whose swarm was very intense. A 3-D velocity model is obtained from analysis of these data by the method of local earthquake tomography. The ancient crystalline basement and the sedimentary-volcanic Mesozoic-Cenozoic cover could be identified from cross sections of the P wave field. The eastern and western boundaries of an uplift in the basement of the Dzirulskii Massif are delineated. Linear low velocity heterogeneities correlating with the active Kakheti-Lechkhumi fault zone and two Trans-Caucasian linear fault zones are discovered in the basement. The cloud of aftershock hypocenters is shown to correlate with a reflector coinciding with the cover-basement interface.     

Modeling of deep-seated high-alumina parageneses on the basis of the stability fields of corundum- and spinel-normative assemblages of the system CaO–MgO–Al2O3–SiO2

To elaborate physicochemical models for the origin of crystalline rocks, experimental studies of the field of high-alumina assemblages of the system CaO–MgO–Al₂O₃–SiO₂ were carried out at 10–30 kbar and 1250–1535 °C. We have determined the phase relations between the melt (L) and An, Sp, Cpx, Cor, and Ga, the slope of the rays of the monovariant reactions An + Sp = Cpx + Cor + (Ga) and L = Cpx +Ga + Cor + Sp, the position of the nonvariant point (An, Sp, Cpx, Cor, Ga, L), and the compositions of phases participating in these reactions. Based on a topological analysis of the studied segment of the system CaO–MgO–Al₂O₃–SiO₂, we have substantiated that “eclogitization” must follow the reaction Opx + An + Sp = Cpx + Ga. A fundamental continuous series of eutectic monovariant equilibria was observed: L = Cpx + Opx + Fo + An, L = Cpx + Opx + An + Sp, L = Cpx (+ Ga) + An + Sp, and L = Cpx + Cor (+ Ga) + An. A change in the melt composition in this series of eutectic reactions depending on pressure must reflect the most likely magma genesis trend in nature. Comparision of the composition fields in which the above series of reactions is observed with the composition fields of the rocks of magmatic formations showed that this series is most similar to the alkali-earth series of rocks. The mineralogical compositions of cumulates and phenocrysts found in the effusive and dike varieties of these rocks correspond to unique sets of subsolidus phase associations and individual subsolidus phases crystallizing in this fundamental eutectic series.     

Uncertainty as the overlap of alternate conditional distributions

An important task in modern geostatistics is the assessment and quantification of resource and reserve uncertainty. This uncertainty is valuable support information for many management decisions. Uncertainty at specific locations and uncertainty in the global resource is of interest. There are many different methods to build models of uncertainty, including Kriging, Cokriging, and Inverse Distance. Each method leads to different results. A method is proposed to combine local uncertainties predicted by different models to obtain a combined measure of uncertainty that combines good features of each alternative. The new estimator is the overlap of alternate conditional distributions.