地震与火山电磁研究的国际学术交流与合作

国际地震与火山电磁研究工作组(EMSEV)于2001年在国际地磁学与高空物理学协会(IAGA)、国际地震学与地球内部物理学协会(IASPEI)及国际火山学与地球内部化学协会(IAVCEI)的大力支持下成立。自2001年起,EMSEV一直致力于地震与火山电磁研究的国际学术交流与合作,有力推进了地震与火山电磁研究。描述了EMSEV及其工作会议的概况,简要介绍了地震与火山电磁研究的国际学术交流与EMSEV的国际合作,讨论并展望了地震与火山电磁研究的前景。     

某砂岩隧道在开挖过程中变形的数值模拟研究

以某砂岩隧道为背景,首先应用弹塑性理论对隧道开挖后围岩的变形屈服和拱顶及边墙的应力状态进行了分析,继而采用有限差分软件FLAC3D模拟了隧道开挖过程中围岩的位移及塑性变形情况。计算结果表明：该研究段隧道发生塑性屈服的临界深度为78．2m;当隧道开挖31m后,由于开挖卸荷作用使得原先储存在围岩内的大部分应力得以释放,此后困岩变形基本趋于稳定;该隧道在开挖过程中,边墙变形量最大,达到1．94mm,由于隧道在开挖过程中围岩的自稳作用,当开挖到一定时间后,围岩变形将趋于稳定;该隧道在开挖过程中,拱顶和底部以拉张破坏为主,边墙则产生剪切破坏。     

2008年初武汉冰雪天气过程特征分析

利用实况观测资料和NCEP再分析资料对2008年初武汉市4次冰雪天气过程特征进行分析。结果表明：700—850 hPa的逆温与850 hPa以下层次的冷垫是该区降雪发生与维持的有利条件,700 hPa切变线偏在850 hPa切变线北方,风的垂直切变表明大气具有明显的斜压性,较高层次强大的西南气流在较低层次冷垫上输送大量暖湿空气。本区18日20时—19日20时暴雪发生时有较强的上升运动和较大的西南水汽输送与水汽辐合,最大西南水汽输送与水汽辐合的层次比一般暴雨过程要高,高层惯性不稳定、中层对流不稳定等都是暴雪发生的有利条件。     

Content and densities of soil organic carbon in urban soil in different function districts of Kaifeng

Urban soil, forming along with the development of city, has unique properties of soil organic carbon. On the basis of field investigation and laboratory analysis, soil organic carbon (SOC) of Kaifeng city was studied, and the results showed that the characteristics of SOC were different not only among function districts in urban area, but also between urban area and suburbs. The order of SOC in topsoil was industrial district > recreational district > traffic district > cultural/educational district > residential/administrative district. The density of soil organic carbon (SOCD) in both topsoil and profile followed the orders of recreational district > industrial district > traffic district>cultural/educational district > residential/adminis- trative district, and cultural/educational district > traffic district>industrial district>recreational district > administrative/residential district, respectively. SOCD in both topsoil and profile decreased along the transection line from urban area to suburbs and urban area had 2.53-fold more SOCD in topsoil and 1.56-fold more SOCD in profile than suburbs, respectively. SOC decreased with the depth and was mainly distributed within the scope of 0–30 cm. The variances of SOC in urban area were more complicated than that in suburbs.     

侏罗系、白垩系界线问题及对中国北方陆相界线的思考

侏罗系、白垩系间是显生宙唯一还没有定义系级GSSP的界线。生物演替在Thithonian期与Berriasian期之间不存在明显变化,很难找到可以进行全球对比的标志。作为中生代生物年代地层学主要划分依据的菊石类生物,亦受生物区系影响而难作为侏罗系、白垩系界线的标志。微体化石具有优势。近期,国际上趋于将瓮虫类Calpionella alpina带之底、钙质超微化石Nannoconus steinmannii minor和N.kamptneri minor二者的始现面作为侏罗系、白垩系界线,对应于极性带M19n.2n内部,年龄为145 Ma。国际地层划分与对比以海相为标准。中国侏罗系、白垩系以陆相地层发育为特征,与海相对比颇具难度。以陆相生物为标志的界线划分产生了地区性的生物年代地层格架,也形成了地方生物地层与国际年代地层对比的错位,导致中国陆相侏罗系、白垩系界线成为地学界争议的问题。本文认为,在综合考虑不同学科研究结果的同时,问题解决的实质是客观认识陆相生物对比的缺陷,结合考虑非生物的标准,如磁性地层、旋回地层和同位素测年的精度,获得超越相区的对比结果。基于陆相生物特点,着眼于宏观演化阶段来识别界线位置是问题解决的初期阶段。燕辽生物群与热河生物群是代表侏罗纪和白垩纪的两大生物演化类群,其间年龄可为土城子组顶部的139 Ma。这是为全方位研究而铺设的临时工作界线。今后将土城子组作为侏罗纪、白垩纪过渡地层而加大研究力度,有可能在该组顶部或其内部发现界线生物标志和同层位绝对年龄值,或许会使其向目前国际推荐年龄(145 Ma)更靠近一步;也不排除GSSP未定的国际侏罗系、白垩系界线年龄会向年轻方向变化,趋于139 Ma的Valanginian阶底界位置。     

ANALYSIS ON STRUCTURAL FEATURES:INSIGHTS FROM SATELLITE-DERIVED GRAVITY MODEL AND SEISMIC PATTERN

In this paper, based on a large number of cumulative observational data from the seismic monitoring network in China, we grid the research area to calculate the density values at each grid node and convert the qualitative earthquake epicenter distribution to quantitative seismic pattern. Minimum magnitude of completeness(M_C)is determined by magnitude-rank analysis, which provides lower limit earthquake and original time. New satellite-derived gravity model v23.1, which is based on satellites CryoSat-2 and Jason-1 data, is used to determine the Bouguer gravity anomaly derived from free-air gravity anomaly and elevation database sets SRTM30, and ultimately, the complete Bouguer correction is obtained. In this paper, the Xingtai earthquake zone and Tanlu fault zone (Anhui segment) are selected for case study. Bouguer gravity anomaly presents a NE-trending U-shaped narrow strip in the Xingtai earthquake zone, and its location is consistent with Shulu Fault Basin. Grid density value contours are restricted by the U-shaped strip, and the extreme value of seismic activity density lies in the bottom of the U-shaped strip as shown in the cross section. The results of Bouguer gravity anomaly and upward continuations to the different heights show good linearity and gradient in the Tanlu fault zone (Anhui segment); and both long-axis direction of seismic pattern and nodal plane strike of seismogenic fault from focal mechanism solutions trend NNE. In short, the Tanlu fault zone(Anhui segment)is a large deep-seated fault that still has the ability to control seismic activity along it. Based on the measured gravity and magmatic data, using the edge detection TDX method to interpret the concealed boundary of the Anqing M4.8 earthquake near the Tanlu fault, and combining with the results from deep seismic reflection profiles of the study area, we discussed the causative fault of the Anqing earthquake.     

基于博弈模型的中美气候谈判策略模拟

中美在气候谈判中的共识和分歧已成为影响未来气候谈判走向的重要因素。基于效用和博弈理论,考虑温升幅度及其对GDP影响等因素的不确定性,以及气候变化相关投资对各国净现值效用的负面、正面和外溢影响,对中美气候谈判进行博弈策略模拟及敏感性分析。结果表明,中美气候谈判博弈存在先动劣势,且中美在非合作博弈下的气候变化投资远远无法实现全球2℃控温目标;在合作博弈情景下,为确保实现全球温升控制目标的合作框架的稳定和双赢,未来的气候制度框架需要关注对中国的技术、资金支持和补偿。     

Grading Woodland Soil Water Productivity and Soil Bioavailability in the Semi‐Arid Loess Plateau of China

In the semi‐arid region of the Loess Plateau in China, a portable photosynthesis system (Li‐6400) and a portable steady porometer (Li‐1600) were used to study the quantitative relation between the soil water content (SWC) and trees' physiological parameters including net photosynthesis rate (P_n), carboxylation efficiency (CE), transpiration rate (T_r), water use efficiency of leaf (WUE_L), stomatic conductivity (G_s), stomatal resistance (R_s), intercellular CO₂ (C_i), and stomatal limitation (L_s). These are criteria for grading and evaluating soil water productivity and availability in forests of Black Locust (Robinia pseudoacacia) and Oriental Arborvitae (Platycladus orientalis). The results indicated: To the photosynthesis of Locust and Arborvitae, the SWC of less than 4.5 and 4.0% (relative water content (RWC) 21.5 and 19.0%) belong to “non‐productivity and non‐efficiency water”; the SWC of 4.5–10.0% (RWC 21.5–47.5%) and 4.0–8.5% (RWC 19.0–40.5%) belong to “low productivity and low efficiency water”; the SWC of 10.0–13.5% (RWC 47.5–64.0%) and 8.5–11.0% (RWC 40.5–52.0%) belong to “middle productivity and high efficiency water”; the SWC of 13.5–17.0% (RWC 64.0–81.0%) and 11.0–16.0% (RWC 52.0–76.0%) belong to “high productivity and middle efficiency water”; the SWC of 17.0–19.0% (RWC 81.0–90.5%) and 16.0–19.0% (RWC 76.0–90.5%) belong to “middle productivity and low efficiency water”; the SWC of more than 19.0% (RWC 90.5%) belongs to “low productivity and low efficiency water”. The SWC of about 13.5 and 11.0% (RWC 64.0 and 52.0%) are called “high productivity and high efficiency water”, which provides the further evidence for Locust and Arborvitae to get both higher productivity (P_n and CE) and the highest WUE_L and adaptation to the local environment, respectively.     

城市供水管网在地震时的连通可靠性分析

考虑地震作用效应和管道抗力的随机特性,建立了埋地管道单元的概率预测模型,评估其在地震时的震害状态。把供水管网系统简化为边权有向网络图,通过Monte Carlo随机模拟过程,近似再现管网中各管段的破坏状态,进而分别结合图论理论方法和模糊关系矩阵法,对管网进行连通可靠性分析。由于Monte Carlo模拟算法是以管网各节点与水源点处于连通状态的近似频率计算来代替精确概率分析,为获得稳定的计算结果,对所用算例进行了5000次模拟。算例分析表明,基于图论方法和模糊关系矩阵法得到的管网连通可靠性结果基本相等。