An Analysis Platform for Multiscale Hydrogeologic Modeling with Emphasis on Hybrid Multiscale Methods

One of the most significant challenges faced by hydrogeologic modelers is the disparity between the spatial and temporal scales at which fundamental flow, transport, and reaction processes can best be understood and quantified (e.g., microscopic to pore scales and seconds to days) and at which practical model predictions are needed (e.g., plume to aquifer scales and years to centuries). While the multiscale nature of hydrogeologic problems is widely recognized, technological limitations in computation and characterization restrict most practical modeling efforts to fairly coarse representations of heterogeneous properties and processes. For some modern problems, the necessary level of simplification is such that model parameters may lose physical meaning and model predictive ability is questionable for any conditions other than those to which the model was calibrated. Recently, there has been broad interest across a wide range of scientific and engineering disciplines in simulation approaches that more rigorously account for the multiscale nature of systems of interest. In this article, we review a number of such approaches and propose a classification scheme for defining different types of multiscale simulation methods and those classes of problems to which they are most applicable. Our classification scheme is presented in terms of a flowchart (Multiscale Analysis Platform), and defines several different motifs of multiscale simulation. Within each motif, the member methods are reviewed and example applications are discussed. We focus attention on hybrid multiscale methods, in which two or more models with different physics described at fundamentally different scales are directly coupled within a single simulation. Very recently these methods have begun to be applied to groundwater flow and transport simulations, and we discuss these applications in the context of our classification scheme. As computational and characterization capabilities continue to improve, we envision that hybrid multiscale modeling will become more common and also a viable alternative to conventional single‐scale models in the near future.     

Understanding the surface hydrology of the Lake Eyre Basin: Part 1—Rainfall

This is the first of two papers that describe the surface hydrology of the Lake Eyre Basin (LEB) (1,140,000 km²) in central Australia and compares some key characteristics with those observed from arid regions globally. This paper concentrates on annual rainfall, whereas the second paper is devoted to streamflow. The first part describes the LEB's climate (arid to semi-arid), which is dominated by a subtropical high pressure ridge stretching latitudinally across central Australia. Then follow major analyses that include the characteristics of rainfall, wet and dry spell lengths and cumulative surpluses and deficiencies, rainfall trends and intra- and inter-decadal fluctuations, and the relationship between rainfall and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The paper concludes with six conclusions, the key ones being: the variability of the annual rainfall (based on the coefficient of variation) in the LEB is approximately 60% greater than that found for stations located in arid regions in the rest of the world; there is a bias towards longer lengths of dry years than observed in the rest of Australia; and, there is a significant lag correlation between rainfall and ENSO, particularly in the east and in the latter part of a year.     

The size, mass, and composition of plastic debris in the western North Atlantic Ocean

This study reports the first inventory of physical properties of individual plastic debris in the North Atlantic. We analyzed 748 samples for size, mass, and material composition collected from surface net tows on 11 expeditions from Cape Cod, Massachusetts to the Caribbean Sea between 1991 and 2007. Particles were mostly fragments less than 10 mm in size with nearly all lighter than 0.05 g. Material densities ranged from 0.808 to 1.24 g ml⁻¹, with about half between 0.97 and 1.04 g ml⁻¹, a range not typically found in virgin plastics. Elemental analysis suggests that samples in this density range are consistent with polypropylene and polyethylene whose densities have increased, likely due to biofouling. Pelagic densities varied considerably from that of beach plastic debris, suggesting that plastic particles are modified during their residence at sea. These analyses provide clues in understanding particle fate and potential debris sources, and address ecological implications of pelagic plastic debris.     

Earthquake Rupture at Focal Depth,Part II: Mechanics of the 2004 M2.2 Earthquake Along the Pretorius Fault,TauTona Mine,South Africa

We analyze here the rupture mechanics of the 2004, M2.2 earthquake based on our observations and measurements at focal depth (Part I). This event ruptured the Archean Pretorius fault that has been inactive for at least 2 Ga, and was reactivated due to mining operations down to a depth of 3.6 km depth. Thus, it was expected that the Pretorius fault zone will fail similarly to an intact rock body independently of its ancient healed structure. Our analysis reveals a few puzzling features of the M2.2 rupture-zone: (1) the earthquake ruptured four, non-parallel, cataclasite bearing segments of the ancient Pretorius fault-zone; (2) slip occurred almost exclusively along the cataclasite-host rock contacts of the slipping segments; (3) the local in-situ stress field is not favorable to slip along any of these four segments; and (4) the Archean cataclasite is pervasively sintered and cemented to become brittle and strong. To resolve these observations, we conducted rock mechanics experiments on the fault-rocks and host-rocks and found a strong mechanical contrast between the quartzitic cataclasite zones, with elastic-brittle rheology, and the host quartzites, with damage, elastic–plastic rheology. The finite-element modeling of a heterogeneous fault-zone with the measured mechanical contrast indicates that the slip is likely to reactivate the ancient cataclasite-bearing segments, as observed, due to the strong mechanical contrast between the cataclasite and the host quartzitic rock.     

A comparison of the evolution of arc complexes in Paleozoic interior and peripheral orogens: Speculations on geodynamic correlations

We discuss the potential geodynamic connections between Paleozoic arc development along the flanks of the interior (e.g. the Iapetus and Rheic) oceans and the exterior Paleopacific Ocean. Paleozoic arcs in the Iapetus and Rheic oceanic realms are preserved in the Appalachian–Caledonide and Variscan orogens, and in the Paleopacific Ocean realm they are preserved in the Terra Australis Orogen. Potential geodynamic connections are suggested by paleocontinental reconstructions showing Cambrian–Early Ordovician contraction of the exterior ocean as the interior oceans expanded, and subsequent Paleozoic expansion of the exterior oceans while the interior oceans contracted. Subduction initiated in the eastern segment of Iapetus at ca. 515 Ma and Early to Middle Ordovician orogenesis along the flanks of this ocean is highlighted by arc–continent collisions and ophiolite obductions. Over a similar time interval, subduction and orogenesis took place in the exterior ocean and included formation of the Macquarie arc in the Tasmanides of Eastern Australia and the Famatina arc and correlatives in the periphery of the proto-Andean margin of Gondwana. Major changes in the style of subduction (from retreating to advancing) in interior oceans occurred during the Silurian, following accretion of the peri-Gondwanan terranes and Baltica, and closure of the northeastern segment of Iapetus. During the same time interval, subduction in the Paleopacific Ocean was predominantly in a retreating mode, although intermittent episodes of contraction closed major marginal basins. In addition, however, there were major disturbances in the Earth tectonic systems during the Ordovician, including an unprecedented rise in marine life diversity, as well as significant fluctuations in sea level, atmospheric CO₂, and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and ¹³C in marine strata carbonates. Stable and radiogenic isotopic data provide evidence for the addition of abundant mantle-derived magma, fluids and large mineral deposits that have a significant mantle-derived component. When considered together, the coeval, profound changes in the style of tectonic activity and the disturbances recorded in Earth Systems are consistent with the emergence of a superplume during the Ordovician. We speculate that the emergence of a superplume triggered by slab avalanche events within the Iapetus and Paleopacific oceans was associated with the establishment of a new geoid high within the Paleopacific regime, the closure of the interior Rheic Ocean and the amalgamation of Laurussia and Gondwana, which was a key event in the Late Carboniferous amalgamation of Pangea.     

FeS-Induced Radical Formation and Its Effect on Plasmid DNA

Plasmid DNA was incubated at 25°C with aqueous solutions of dissolved Fe(II), S(-II), and nanoparticulate FeS with a mackinawite structure, FeS_m. At ??0.1 mM total dissolved Fe(II) and S(-II), an increase in the proportion of the relaxed plasmid DNA occurs, through scission of the DNA backbone. In solutions where FeS_m was precipitated, nanoparticulate FeS_m binds to the DNA molecules. In solutions with concentrations below the FeS_m solubility product, nicking of supercoiled pDNA occurs. Plasmid DNA appears to be a sensitive proxy for radical reactions. The reactant is proposed to be a sulfur-based radical produced from the iron-catalyzed decomposition of bisulfide, in a manner analogous to the Fenton reaction. This is further supported by experiments that suggest that sulfide free radicals are produced during the photolysis of aqueous solutions of polysulfides. Supercoiling of DNA affects nearly all DNA?Cprotein transactions so the observation of relaxation of supercoiled forms through reaction with FeS solutions has direct implications to biochemistry. The results of this experimentation suggest that genotoxicity in FeS-rich systems is a further contributory factor to the limited survival of organisms in sulfidic environments. Mutations resulting from the interactions of organisms and mobile elements, such as plasmids, in sediments will also be affected in sulfide-rich environments.     

Market intermediaries and rural people in Bolivia's forest products sector: Are trusting partnerships possible?

Decentralization in access to and control of Bolivia's forest resources, coupled with a rising global demand for tropical hardwoods, raises important questions about whether increased trade and community forest management (CFM) initiatives can enable forms of market integration that have more favourable outcomes for rural communities. This paper assesses the prospects for such a transition through an examination of the relationships linking wood product market intermediaries (brokers and buyers) to rural suppliers and forest communities in Bolivia. The analysis centres on whether trust – conceptualized as a power‐laden sociospatial process driven by multiscalar factors – can evolve between buyers and suppliers such that more progressive (sustainable and mutually beneficial) partnerships devolop. Focusing on three types of buyer–supplier relationships in Bolivia – direct ties between wood brokers/buyers and suppliers, nongovernmental organization (NGO) mediated exchange relationships and Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) certification of suppliers – our findings show how trust building initiatives that focus on one scale may fail if factors at other scales create obstacles to collaboration, Given these relational constraints, CFM strategies in Bolivia currently face limitation on their viability as economic development strategies.     

Evaluation of real-time flash flood forecasts for Haiti during the passage of Hurricane Tomas, November 4–6, 2010

The January 2010 earthquake that devastated Haiti left its population ever more vulnerable to rainfall-induced flash floods. A flash flood guidance system has been implemented to provide real-time information on the potential of small (~70 km²) basins for flash flooding throughout Haiti. This system has components for satellite rainfall ingest and adjustment on the basis of rain gauge information, dynamic soil water deficit estimation, ingest of operational mesoscale model quantitative precipitation forecasts, and estimation of the times of channel flow at bankfull. The result of the system integration is the estimation of the flash flood guidance (FFG) for a given basin and for a given duration. FFG is the amount of rain of a given duration over a small basin that causes minor flooding in the outlet of the basin. Amounts predicted or nowcasted that are higher than the FFG indicate basins with potential for flash flooding. In preparation for Hurricane Tomas’ landfall in early November 2010, the FFG system was used to generate 36-h forecasts of flash flood occurrence based on rainfall forecasts of the nested high-resolution North American Model of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Assessment of the forecast flood maps and forecast precipitation indicates the utility and value of the forecasts in understanding the spatial distribution of the expected flooding for mitigation and disaster management. It also highlights the need for explicit uncertainty characterization of forecast risk products due to large uncertainties in quantitative precipitation forecasts on hydrologic basin scales.     

Provenance analysis of the Paleozoic sequences of the northern Gondwana margin in NW Iberia: Passive margin to Variscan collision and orocline development

The Cantabrian Zone of NW Iberia preserves a voluminous, almost continuous, sedimentary sequence that ranges from Neoproterozoic to Early Permian in age. Its tectonic setting is controversial and recent hypotheses include (i) passive margin deposition along the northern margin of Gondwana or (ii) an active continental margin or (iii) a drifting ribbon continent. In this paper we present detrital zircon U–Pb laser ablation age data from 13 samples taken in detrital rocks from the Cantabrian Zone sequence ranging from Early Silurian to Early Permian in depositional age. The obtained results, together with previously published detrital zircon ages from Ediacaran–Ordovician strata, allow a comprehensive analysis of changing provenance through time. Collectively, these data indicate that this portion of Iberia was part of the passive margin of Gondwana at least from Ordovician to Late Devonian times. Zircon populations in all samples show strong similarities with the Sahara Craton and with zircons found in Libya, suggesting that NW Iberia occupied a paleoposition close to those regions of present-day northern Africa during this time interval. Changes in provenance in the Late Devonian are attributed to the onset of the collision between Gondwana and Laurussia.Additionally, the Middle Carboniferous to Permian samples record populations consistent with the recycling of older sedimentary sequences and exhumation of the igneous rocks formed before and during the Variscan orogeny. Late-Devonian to Permian samples yield zircon populations that reflect topographic changes produced during the Variscan orogeny and development of the lithospheric scale oroclinal buckling.     

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987112001570

The supercontinent cycle,by which Earth history is seen as having been punctuated by the episodic assembly and breakup of supercontinents,has influenced the rock record more than any other geologic phenomena,and its recognition is arguably the most important advance in Earth Science since plate tectonics.It documents fundamental aspects of the planet’s interior dynamics and has charted the course of Earth’s tectonic,climatic and biogeochemical evolution for billions of years.But while the widespread realization of the importance of supercontinents in Earth history is a relatively recent development,the supercontinent cycle was first proposed thirty years ago and episodicity in tectonic processes was recognized long before plate tectonics provided a potential explanation for its occurrence.With interest in the supercontinent cycle gaining momentum and the literature expanding rapidly,it is instructive to recall the historical context from which the concept developed.Here we examine the supercontinent cycle from this perspective by tracing its development from the early recognition of long-term episodicity in tectonic processes,through the identification of tectonic cycles following the advent of plate tectonics,to the first realization that these phenomena were the manifestation of episodic supercontinent assembly and breakup.