Assessment of rock slope stability with the effects of weathering and excavation by comparing deterministic methods and slope stability probability classification (SSPC)

Cut slopes are prone to fail due to the disturbance on original geometry and strength. In addition, because of these disturbances and stress relief, natural apertures which increase the weathering effects widen in engineering time. Owing to these reasons, slope stability assessment has a prominent role on these road cuts. Generally, slope stabilities are assessed by deterministic approaches with a significant engineering judgment. Because of this reason the reputation of probabilistic approaches is increasing. In this study, 20 road cuts located in North West Black Sea region of Turkey were evaluated using slope stability probability classification (SSPC). Considering this probabilistic approach, rock strength parameters and failure mechanisms were determined. Furthermore, slope mass rating (SMR) classification was applied for each road cut in order to compare with the results obtained from SSPC. These overall results were then evaluated with the field observations considering rockslope deterioration assessment (RDA) and Falling Rock Hazard Index (FRHI) for the disturbed/weathered zones, and failure mechanisms. According to these, SSPC is found to be more accurate for surficial degradations (raveling and fall) using samples taken from the disturbed/weathered zones rather than using relatively fresh samples beyond the disturbed zone. Moreover, despite strength differences between weathered and relatively fresh zones, SMR classification is identified to reveal the same stable probabilities. It is found that SSPC shows more detailed probabilistic results than SMR. Lastly, rockfall and raveling mechanisms determined by RDA and rockfall risk by FRHI were found to be coherent with SSPC and field observations.     

Evaluation of liquefaction in Karasu River floodplain after the October 23, 2011, Van (Turkey) earthquake

Natural Hazards - The eastern shore of Lake Van was shaken by a powerful earthquake (M w 7.2) on October 23, 2011. The epicenter of the earthquake was located at about 30 km north of the...     

Evaluation of andesite source as armourstone for a rubble mound breakwater (Hisarönü, Turkey)

Black Sea coast line is a hazardous region especially in winter due to the dominant wave action. Therefore, rubble mound breakwaters protected with armourstone used as ship shelters are vital structures especially for the fishermen. The deterioration of the armourstone with time in the form of abrasion and disintegration may result in the failure of the breakwater. In this study, the properties of the armourstone taken from an andesite quarry and used in the Hisarönü rubble mound breakwater were studied both in field and laboratory in order to assess their qualities and long-term durabilities. Based on the in situ observations and laboratory tests, the andesite is found to be generally marginal rock. CIRIA/CUR, RDI_s, RERS and Wet-Dry strength ratio classifications are in good agreement with the in situ observations and the results of the laboratory tests. However, RDI_d, Average Pore Diameter and Saturation Coefficient classifications cannot correctly predict long-term durability of the armourstone. Field studies reveal that block size of the andesite in the quarry increases with depth due to the increase in spacing of the cooling joints of the rock.     

Quantification of weathering depths in slightly weathered tuffs

Slightly weathered white and pink tuffs of Midas monument have deterioration problems. In this study, depths of the weathering zones developed in the tuffs are investigated through optical microscopy, XRD, chemical analyses, SEM and some index parameters. By examining quantitative weathering indices and comparing them with thin section studies, it is found that thin section analyses of the phenocrysts, LoI and WPI are good indicators to quantify the depth of weathering for the tuffs. However, thin section studies have limited value for fine-grained tuffaceous matrix. The chemical weathering of the tuffs produces weathered zones that are 4.5 cm thick within the white tuff and 2.5 cm thick within the pink tuff. Physical weathering causes fracturing of feldspars along their cleavage planes. Variations of the index properties of the tuffs caused by weathering are not significant enough to quantify the weathering depths in the tuffs.     

Quality assessment of armourstone for a rubble mound breakwater (Sinop, Turkey)

Helald is a fishing town in the central Black Sea region where construction of a rubble mound breakwater is being planned. The construction of the breakwater requires good quality durable armourstone. Several laboratory tests are performed for the quality assessment of the two potential armourstone, namely, limestone and sandstone. The quality evaluation of the stones is done on the basis of CIRIA/CUR criteria, saturation coefficient, wet-to-dry strength ratio, and the rock durability index. The quality evaluations are then compared with the field performance of both rocks. Laboratory test results, durability assessments and field performance of the rocks indicate that the limestone is a good quality armourstone and it can be used for the breakwater construction. However, the sandstone is marginal to poor material with very poor field performance, and should not be used for the breakwater construction.     

Estimation of Mining Project Values Through Real Option Valuation Using a Combination of Hedging Strategy and a Mean Reversion Commodity Price

Cash flows generated from mining projects are typically highly volatile and significantly influenced by a number of exogenous factors including commodity price as one of the most influential uncertainties. In addition, mining projects are complex and many of their executed investment decisions are irreversible. Therefore, management needs to address this potential risk exposure before making an investment decision. Due to the deterioration and fluctuation of mineral commodity prices for a successful mining project acquisition or development, an important and appropriate investment strategy should include a hedging strategy for reducing potential losses suffered by a company. The discounted cash flow methods, which are commonly used to calculate mining project values, often fail to respond to this identified economic uncertainty and also to incorporate de-risking hedging strategies. Therefore, this study approximates the numerical value or value ranges of a mining project considering the combination of a mean reverting commodity price and hedging strategies using continuous time modeling. A novel time-dependent partial differential equation has been proposed using a continuous time, mean reverting model, and hedging strategy to approximate the mining project value. Application of a new real options valuation technique demonstrated its superiority by providing the advantage of mitigating financial losses and procuring financial gains. In this study, some key results are deferral option and expansion option enhanced the maximum values of the project which are, respectively, 2.51 % and 4.4 % compared to the base case. Furthermore, the country risk has a great impact on project values, as when we considered the country risk premium is zero in our model, the project value increases up to 0.97 %.     

Quality and durability assessments of the armourstones for two rubble mound breakwaters (Mersin,Turkey)

Due to economic reasons, natural stones (armourstones) of various sizes and qualities are very frequently used for the constructions of the breakwaters to protect coastal engineering structures from wave actions. Deterioration of the armourstones with time in the form of abrasion and disintegration may end up with the damage of the structures. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate the long-term performance and quality of the armourstones, which should be sound and durable. Mersin and Kumkuyu harbours were constructed using four different limestones obtained from two quarries. The limestones have different characters and site performances. In this study, the material and mass properties of the limestones taken from the quarries with known site performances as armourstones are investigated. The site performances and durability of the limestones are compared with the field measurements and laboratory works. Thus, the information obtained is used to assess long-term durability of the armourstones. The long-term performance of the Degirmencayi and Tirtar upper level limestones are observed to be good whereas it is rather poor for the Tirtar middle and lower level limestones. Comparison between the predicted and observed durabilities of the armourstones indicated that CIRIA/CUR, RDI_d, RERS, and wet to dry strength ratio give better results based on their field performances. However, the prediction of the durability of the limestones is poor in case RDIs, average pore diameter, and saturation coefficient are used.     

Rockfall hazard analysis for an historical Castle in Kastamonu (Turkey)

The Kastamonu Castle located on a sandstone hill with Eocene age is one of the most historical and touristic places in Kastamonu city center. The settlement of the city expanded towards the hill of the Kastamonu Castle and adversely affected by rockfalls in the past. The rockfall problems around the castle could be related to jointing, weathering, freezing-thawing and earthquake effects or a combination. In this study, the rockfall hazard at the castle is evaluated by two-dimensional rockfall analyses along 17 profiles selected in different orientations. Different size of rock blocks and various types of movements are taken into consideration in the analyses. Fall-out distance, bounce height, kinetic energy and velocity of the sandstone blocks are separately evaluated. The obtained data are used to define the possible rockfall hazard zones. Finally, the areas having potential rockfall risks are distinguished. Based on the evaluation of the data, rock bolting after removing of unstable blocks and supporting the area with the protective fences are suggested.     

A newly developed seismic microzonation model of Erbaa (Tokat, Turkey) located on seismically active eastern segment of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ)

A methodology to model seismic microzonation maps is required in the hazard mitigation decision plans of the earthquake prone areas. The stage of disaster preparedness for new residential places is of great importance for detailed seismic microzonation models. The effects of local geological and geotechnical site conditions were considered in order to establish site characterization as the initial stage of the models in this study. Dynamic soil properties based on the empirical correlations between shear wave velocity (V _s) and standard penetration test blow counts were taken into account in order to define representative soil profiles extending down to the engineering bedrock. One-dimensional site response analyses were performed to analyze earthquake characteristics on the ground surface. The layers for soil classification, geology, depth to groundwater level, amplification, distance to fault, slope and aspect, and liquefaction-induced ground deformation potential of the study area were prepared in seismic microzonation models. The study area, Erbaa, is placed along the seismically active North Anatolian Fault Zone. Final seismic microzonation map of the study area was evaluated applying different GIS-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) techniques. Two of the MCDA techniques, simple additive weighting and analytical hierarchical process (AHP), are considered during the evaluation step of the final seismic microzonation map. The comparison is made in order to distinguish two different maps based on these MCDA techniques. Eventually, AHP-based seismic microzonation map is more preferable for the seismic design purposes in this study.     

Spatial Prediction of Lateral Variability of a Laterite-Type Bauxite Horizon Using Ancillary Ground-Penetrating Radar Data

Tropical laterite-type bauxite deposits often pose a unique challenge for resource modelling and mine planning due to the extreme lateral variability at the base of the bauxite ore unit within the regolith profile. An economically viable drilling grid is often rather sparse for traditional prediction techniques to precisely account for the lateral variability in the lower contact of a bauxite ore unit. However, ground-penetrating radar (GPR) offers an inexpensive and rapid method for delineating laterite profiles by acquiring fine-scale data from the ground. These numerous data (secondary variable) can be merged with sparsely spaced borehole data (primary variable) through various statistical and geostatistical techniques, provided that there is a linear relation between the primary and secondary variables. Four prediction techniques, including standard linear regression, simple kriging with varying local means, co-located cokriging and kriging with an external drift, were used in this study to incorporate exhaustive GPR data in predictive estimation the base of a bauxite ore unit within a lateritic bauxite deposit in Australia. Cross-validation was used to assess the performance of each technique. The most robust estimates are produced using ordinary co-located cokriging in accordance with the cross-validation analysis. Comparison of the estimates against the actual mine floor indicates that the inclusion of ancillary GPR data substantially improves the quality of the estimates representing the bauxite base surface.