Transitions in Human Health: Surviving This Millennium by Learning from the Past One Hundred Millennia

We have been living through several decades of great and rapid changes in the human condition. Life expectancies increased markedly during the twentieth century; populations are becoming 'older'; disease profiles are changing. The world is connecting up economically and electronically, market forces have become increasingly dominant, the post-Cold War political landscape has been transformed, cities are expanding rapidly, and material wealth is accruing — albeit unevenly. Meanwhile, however, a range of large-scale environmental changes is occurring, of which the most apparent is global climate change. This reflects a more fundamental process: the biosphere and its life-support systems are straining under the weight of human numbers, intensified food production, escalating carbon-based energy use and the spread of mass consumption behaviours. This revised version was published online in September 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Tourism as a local development strategy in South Africa

The promotion of tourism has been identified as a key strategy that can lead to economic upliftment, community development and poverty relief in the developing world. In the last few years, tourism has also emerged as a significant development option in post–apartheid South Africa. In the context of some current debates on tourism in poor countries, the paper examines how economic, social and environmental resources are being utilized to promote tourism as a local economic development strategy in South Africa, and more specifically it focuses on current local government endeavours in this regard and two communities that have suffered the loss of their economic resource base. Tourism–based development initiatives, one in KwaZulu–Natal and one in the Western Cape, are evaluated in the context of generating economic growth, alleviating poverty and addressing the apartheid legacy of discrimination and inequality. The significance of the dynamics of development processes involved in these initiatives has much wider relevance for local economic development, both within South Africa and elsewhere.     

Automated Digital Photogrammetry: A Valuable Tool for Small‐scale Geomorphological Research for the Non‐photogrammetrist?

Digital photogrammetry provides a tool with which to automatically generate digital elevation models (DEMs). The necessary equipment is now both readily available and affordable: thus there is considerable potential for this technique to be widely adopted in geomorphological studies. But is it possible for geomorphologists without a background in photogrammety to use it successfully? As part of a larger study into rill initiation by overland flow, a non‐metric digital camera and ERDAS IMAGINE OrthoMAX software were used to generate small‐scale DEMs of soil surface microtopography. This paper reports on the procedure used, highlights potential pitfalls, and comments on the quality of the resultant DEMs. Whilst acquisition of high‐quality images using a digital camera is relatively straightforward, problems were subsequently encountered due to the small size of the internal imager and the need for camera calibration. Potential stumbling blocks in the use of the software lay in the setting‐up of ground control points and the use of tie‐points and check‐points, as well as several software glitches not identified in the current manual. Nonetheless, once these problems were overcome the technique proved to be a simple, effective and fast tool for generating high quality microtopographical DEMs. This methodology shows great promise for future geomorphological studies that require these kinds of surface data.     

Global Change and Health — The Good, The Bad and The Evidence

Debates over the merits and demerits of globalisation for health are increasingly polarised. Conclusions range from globalisation being essentially positive for health, albeit with a need to smooth out some rough edges, to one of utter condemnation, with adverse effects on the majority of the world's population. Anyone wading into this debate is immediately confronted by seemingly irreconcilable differences in ideology, opinion and interests. Both camps agree that global changes are occurring, and with them many of the determinants of population health status. While some skepticism persists about whether “globalisation” has value beyond being a fashionable buzzword, most agree that we need better understanding of these changes. Two difficult questions arise: (i) What are the health impacts of these changes; and (ii) how can we respond more effectively to them? To move beyond the stand-offs that have already formed within the health community, this paper reviews the main empirical evidence that currently exists, summarises key points of debate that remain, and suggests some ways forward for the research and policy communities. In particular, there is need for an informed and inclusive debate about the positive and negative health consequences of globalisation.     

Hydrothermal Alteration and Cu-Au Mineralization at Nena High Sulfidation-type Deposit, Frieda River, Papua New Guinea

Abstract. The Nena Cu‐Au deposit, located in the Frieda River mineral district of northwestern mainland Papua New Guinea, is a composite structurally‐lithologically controlled high sulfidation (HS) system. Its hydrothermal alteration and Cu‐Au mineralization are presented in this paper. Initially propylitized andesitic volcanics veined by epithermal quartz were pervasively superimposed by zoned HS alteration. The zonation grades from vuggy silica core to sulfur‐rich, pyritic silica‐alunite halo followed by pyrophyllite‐dickite‐kaolinite interval and finally to thin illite‐smectite margin, suggesting progressive decrease in temperature and increase in pH. This zonation is enveloped by chlorite‐epidote‐calcite‐gypsum alteration. The acid altered rocks were then invaded by multiple phases of pyrite, subsequently crosscut by quartz, vein alunite and barite. Then sequential deposition of bladed covellite, enargite, luzonite and stibioluzonite occurred from the NW to the SE portions of the deposit, forming a zonation suggestive of progressive decrease in temperature, sulfur fugacity and sulfidation stage. Most ore mineralization occurs in the vuggy silica core. Gold mineralization commenced from the transition of enargite to luzonite and continued throughout the stibioluzonite stage. Associated with gold deposition are Au‐rich pyrite, tennantite‐tetrahedrite, chalcopyrite‐bornite, native tellurium, electrum, calaverite, bismuthinite and galena. Native sulfur occupied the remaining cavities and represents the waning stage of the hydrothermal system. Fluid inclusions studies distinguished magmatic (>300–350d?C, 9–15 wt% NaCl equiv.) and meteoric (<150–200d?C, 1–2 wt% NaCl equiv.) fluids (Holzberger et al., 1996). Temperatures and salinities of fluid inclusions from barite associated with Cu sulfides show a general decrease from NW (330d?C, 9–15 wt% NaCl equiv.) to SE (172d?C, 10 wt% NaCl equiv.) parts of the deposit, indicating gradual entrainment of ground water (Hitchman and Espi, 1997). Interaction of magmatic fluids with meteoric water accompanied by changes in temperature, salinity, acidity and oxidation state of the resultant fluids is interpreted to have been the main cause of metal precipitation. Finally, supergene processes generated Au zone with an underlying chalcocite‐covellite‐digenite blanket over the primary sulfides at depth. Gold occurs as lattice constituent in scorodite, limonite‐goethite and jarosite. Chalcocite is more abundant and widespread than other Cu sulfides. Acidic fluids deposited powdery alunite and kaolinite, vein alunite and amorphous silica. Weakly secondary biotite‐quartz altered porphyry located below the known HS Cu‐Au deposit contains chalcopyrite‐bornite and is overprinted by quartz‐alunite‐pyro‐phyllite‐pyrite assemblage. This feature indicates close temporal, spatial and genetic relation between the two deposit types.     

Global airline networks and nodal regions

Transportation infrastructure has always played an important role in the economic fate of regions. In particular, airline networks have dramatically decreased the geographic and temporal constraints of moving people, goods and information; all of which are increasingly crucial inputs for the information economy. As a result, regions have become more concerned with both the quantity and quality of airline connections. The purpose of this paper is to examine the emerging global hierarchy of airline network connectivity. Using a proprietary database of nearly 900 airline carrier schedules from 2006, we examine regional connectivity between 4,650 worldwide origins and destinations. Through the use of network analysis and graph theoretical techniques, results indicate an increasingly complex web of nodal hierarchies in North America, Europe and Asia.

Characteristics of three recent earthquake sequences in the Taupo Volcanic Zone, New Zealand

We have analysed three recent earthquake sequences in the northern part of the Taupo Volcanic Zone. A 1998 sequence at Haroharo with a largest event of M_L 4.8, and a 2004 sequence near Lake Rotoehu (largest event M_L 5.4), had normal b-values, and displayed an aftershock decay pattern, with most of the activity within the first few days. In contrast, a 2005 sequence a few tens of kilometres away at Matata (largest event M_L 4.1), had very different characteristics, with a slow development and decay, no tendency for enhanced seismicity after the larger events, and a very high b-value.The focal mechanisms of the Rotoehu and Matata events are normal, and have stress patterns consistent with the geodetically observed extension of the Taupo Volcanic Zone in a northwest–southeast direction. The extensive recent volcanism in the Okataina Volcanic Centre does not seem to have affected the stress pattern in this area.The Rotoehu sequence showed a strong resemblance, particularly in the time distribution of events, to the well-known swarm activity in the Vogtland region on the German/Czech border, in which larger events were followed by a burst of seismicity, as in a normal aftershock sequence. Some of the arguments that have been advanced to explain the Vogtland swarm as seismicity induced by fluid injection apply to Rotoehu, but there is no direct evidence of fluid involvement. The Matata sequence appears to have a continuing trigger mechanism, either a slow injection of fluid, or a slow slip event, in an environment in which opening pore spaces prevent high overpressures developing. The Matata sequence occurred close to the area of the 1987 M_L 6.3 Edgecumbe Earthquake, so exhibiting two extremes of seismic temporal pattern, namely mainshock–aftershock and a swarm with many events of similar magnitude, within a small area.