The effects of spatial autoregressive dependencies on inference in ordinary least squares: a geometric approach

There is a common belief that the presence of residual spatial autocorrelation in ordinary least squares (OLS) regression leads to inflated significance levels in beta coefficients and, in particular, inflated levels relative to the more efficient spatial error model (SEM). However, our simulations show that this is not always the case. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to examine this question from a geometric viewpoint. The key idea is to characterize the OLS test statistic in terms of angle cosines and examine the geometric implications of this characterization. Our first result is to show that if the explanatory variables in the regression exhibit no spatial autocorrelation, then the distribution of test statistics for individual beta coefficients in OLS is independent of any spatial autocorrelation in the error term. Hence, inferences about betas exhibit all the optimality properties of the classic uncorrelated error case. However, a second more important series of results show that if spatial autocorrelation is present in both the dependent and explanatory variables, then the conventional wisdom is correct. In particular, even when an explanatory variable is statistically independent of the dependent variable, such joint spatial dependencies tend to produce “spurious correlation” that results in over-rejection of the null hypothesis. The underlying geometric nature of this problem is clarified by illustrative examples. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of some possible remedies for this problem.     

Mineralogical and geochemical compositions of modern bivalve shells from the Mediterranean coast of Egypt

The stable isotopic composition (¹³C and ¹⁸O) and elemental (Sr and Mg) of marine molluscs are presented for Carditacea and Solenacea shells collected off the Mediterranean coast of Egypt. Based on shell microstructures and mineralogy, the bivalve shells are preserved in their original mineralogy and chemistry.The Sr and Mg concentrations of the bivalve shells have mean values of 1960 ppm and 226 ppm respectively. The stable isotopic composition generally show high values of ¹⁸O and ¹³C. The ¹⁸O values range from +0.1 to –1.8 PDB and most shells are highly enriched in¹³C; averaging +2.5 PDB. These elemental and isotopic signatures are analogous to modern marine bivalves from other localities.The oxygen and carbon isotopes, together with the calculated temperatures, suggest that the aragonitic bivalve shells were precipitated in isotopic equilibrium from warm marine waters.     

Civil engineering meets geology: at the Panama Canal

The Panama Canal ranks high among the world's greatest feats of civil engineering. The sheer scales of its ground excavations, its concrete structures and its economic significance are truly spectacular. It is also remarkable for the geology of the massive landslides that developed within its Culebra Cut.     

Laboratory simulation of the salt weathering of schist: II. Fragmentation of fine schist particles

Recent developments in long term landform evolution modelling have created a new demand for quantitative salt weathering data, and in particular data describing the size distribution of the weathered rock fragments. To enable future development of rock breakdown models for use in landscape evolution and soil production models, laboratory work was undertaken to extend existing schist/salt weathering fragmentation studies to include an examination of the breakdown of sub‐millimetre quartz chlorite schist particles in a seasonally wet tropical climate. Laser particle sizing was used to assess the impact of different experimental procedures on the resulting particle size distribution. The results reveal that salt weathering under a range of realistic simulated tropical wet season conditions produces a significant degree of schist particle breakdown. The fragmentation of the schist is characterized by splitting of the larger fragments into mid‐sized product with finer material produced, possibly from the breakdown of mid‐sized fragments when weathering is more advanced. Salinity, the salt addition method and temperature were all found to affect weathering rates. Subtle differences in mineralogy also produce variations in weathering patterns and rates. It is also shown that an increase in drying temperature leads to accelerated weathering rates, however, the geometry of the fracture process is not significantly affected. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Old stellar population synthesis： new age and mass estimates for Mayall Ⅱ = G1

Mayall Ⅱ = G1 is one of the most luminous globular clusters （GCs） in M31. Here, we determine its age and mass by comparing multicolor photometry with theoretical stellar population synthesis models. Based on far- and near-ultraviolet GALEX photometry, broad-band UBVRI, and infrared JHKs 2MASS data, we construct the most extensive spectral energy distribution of G 1 to date, spanning the wavelength range from 1538 to 20 000A. A quantitative comparison with a variety of simple stellar population （SSP） models yields a mean age which is consistent with G1 being among the oldest building blocks of M31 and having formed within ～1.7 Gyr after the Big Bang. Irrespective of the SSP model or stellar initial mass function adopted, the resulting mass estimates （of order 10^7M⊙） indicate that GI is one of the most massive GCs in the Local Group. However, we speculate that the cluster＇s exceptionally high mass suggests that it may not be a genuine GC. Our results also suggest that G1 may contain, on average, （1.65±0.63） × 10^2L⊙ far-ultraviolet-bright, hot, extreme horizontal-branch stars, depending on the adopted SSP model. In addition, we demonstrate that extensive multi-passband photometry coupled with SSP analysis enables one to obtain age estimates for old SSPs that have similar accuracies as those from integrated spectroscopy or resolved stellar photometry, provided that some of the free parameters can be constrained independently.     

Shear strength characterization of municipal solid waste at the Suzhou landfill, China

The current practice of slope stability analysis for a municipal solid waste (MSW) landfill usually overlooks the dependence of waste properties on the fill age or embedment depth. Changes in shear strength of MSW as a function of fill age were investigated by performing field and laboratory studies on the Suzhou landfill in China. The field study included sampling from five boreholes advanced to the bottom of the landfill, cone penetration tests and monitoring of pore fluid pressures. Twenty-six borehole samples representative of different fill ages (0 to 13 years) were used to perform drained triaxial compression tests. The field and laboratory study showed that the waste body in the landfill can be sub-divided into several strata corresponding to different ranges of fill age. Each of the waste strata has individual composition and shear strength characteristics. The triaxial test results showed that the MSW samples exhibited a strain-hardening and contractive behavior. As the fill age of the waste increased from 1.7 years to 11 years, the cohesion mobilized at a strain level of 10% was found to decrease from 23.3 kPa to 0 kPa, and the mobilized friction angle at the same strain level increasing from 9.9° to 26°. For a confinement stress level greater than 50 kPa, the shear strength of the recently-placed MSW seemed to be lower than that of the older MSW. This behavior was consistent with the cone penetration test results. The field measurement of pore pressures revealed a perched leachate mound above an intermediate cover of soils and a substantial leachate mound near the bottom of the landfill. The measurements of shear strength properties and pore pressures were utilized to assess the slope stability of the Suzhou landfill.     

Temporary labour migration and sustainable post-conflict return in Sierra Leone

Economic and social development indicators suggest that the small West African state of Sierra Leone is among the poorest countries in the world. Sierra Leone’s economy and quality of life deteriorated rapidly during a decade of political instability and civil war in the 1990s, when many people fled their homes and abandoned their livelihoods due to the rebel insurgency. This paper examines the post-war reconstruction scenario in Sierra Leone and presents recent evidence from two rural communities in the Eastern Province that were badly affected by the conflict. The paper considers the links between the farming and diamond mining sectors, which, despite severe dislocation during the conflict period, have proved to be remarkably resilient. It is argued that seasonal labour mobility associated with this dual economy has not only continued to be a key ingredient in sustaining livelihood portfolios, but is actually an essential pre-condition for the creation of an enabling environment for sustainable post-conflict return.

New Zealand geography: Sharpening the focus,raising the profile

Geography seems to be in good hands in New Zealand's schools and universities, but we cannot afford to be complacent. What are the key priorities for further strengthening geography in New Zealand in the years ahead? The New Zealand Geographical Society has to play a crucial role by helping to bring together geographers in the different sectors, as well as in promoting New Zealand geography internationally, and raising its profile in the media. Most of all, we need to demonstrate the vibrancy, significance and relevance of geography to the wider community.     

Late Pleistocene woodlands in the Bolson de Mapimi: A refugium for the Chihuahuan Desert Biota?

Packrat middens radiocarbon dated at 12,280 ± 345 and 12,700 ± 165 yr B.P. record expansions of junipers and papershell pinyon (Pinus remota) into the desert lowlands of Durango and Coahuila, Mexico (26° N). Extralocal trees and shrubs presently occur 24–580 km in nearly all directions including more subtropical areas to the northeast and southeast. An equable Late Wisconsin climate marked by mild winters with increased precipitation and by cool summers with reduced summer monsoons is proposed. The extensive playas of the Bolson de Mapimi probably held water at that time. The Bolson de Mapimi was not a geographical refugium unaffected by glacial climates, although many Chihuahuan Desert plants and animals probably remain in situ as members of equable woodlands. Equable climates, low extinction rates, and repeated, rapid glacial/interglacial climatic fluctuations may have been important in the evolution and accumulation of species at lower latitudes.