Probabilistic Analysis of Tsunami Hazards*

Determining the likelihood of a disaster is a key component of any comprehensive hazard assessment. This is particularly true for tsunamis, even though most tsunami hazard assessments have in the past relied on scenario or deterministic type models. We discuss probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) from the standpoint of integrating computational methods with empirical analysis of past tsunami runup. PTHA is derived from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), with the main difference being that PTHA must account for far-field sources. The computational methods rely on numerical tsunami propagation models rather than empirical attenuation relationships as in PSHA in determining ground motions. Because a number of source parameters affect local tsunami runup height, PTHA can become complex and computationally intensive. Empirical analysis can function in one of two ways, depending on the length and completeness of the tsunami catalog. For site-specific studies where there is sufficient tsunami runup data available, hazard curves can primarily be derived from empirical analysis, with computational methods used to highlight deficiencies in the tsunami catalog. For region-wide analyses and sites where there are little to no tsunami data, a computationally based method such as Monte Carlo simulation is the primary method to establish tsunami hazards. Two case studies that describe how computational and empirical methods can be integrated are presented for Acapulco, Mexico (site-specific) and the U.S. Pacific Northwest coastline (region-wide analysis). * The U.S. Government’s right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty-free license in and to any copyright is acknowledged.     

Seismic risk evaluation of highway tunnel groups

Natural Hazards - Tunnels allow the continuity of rural road and urban transportation networks. Their shutdown provokes a loss in the transport system’s level service, which entails higher...     

Seismic wave propagation in laterally inhomogeneous poroelastic media via BIEM

This work addresses in‐plane pressure P and vertically polarized shear SV seismic wave propagation in a finite, laterally inhomogeneous, multilayered poroelastic geological region resting on the homogeneous elastic half‐space. The particular approach followed here is based on a combination of the (i) viscoelastic approximation (isomorphism) to Biot's equations of dynamic poroelasticity and on the (ii) boundary integral equation method (BIEM) using frequency‐dependent fundamental solutions of the governing wave equations. The problem is formulated under plane strain conditions and time‐harmonic motions are assumed. Validation of the viscoelastic isomorphism and verification of the BIEM is done by solution of benchmark examples. These simulation studies reveal that the proposed methodology is able to depict a sensitivity of the seismic signals recovered to the following parameters: (i) poroelastic properties of fluid saturated layers; (ii) lateral geological inhomogeneity; (iii) surface topography and (iv) frequency content and direction of the incident wave. It is concluded that the combination of viscoelastic isomorphism with BIEM software provides an effective numerical tool for evaluating site‐effect phenomena in multilayered, fluid saturated geological regions with complex geometry. The numerical results obtained demonstrate that dynamic poroelasticity interacting with other physical peculiarities of the Earth's surface layers, such as lateral heterogeneity, material properties along the wave path, local geological profile and type of elastic wave, gives rise to complex seismic signals on the free surface at the site of interest. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Questioning the virtues of pro-environmental behaviour research: Towards a phronetic approach

Drawing on Flyvbjerg’s (2001) call for the development of phronetic social science, this paper argues that much current research into pro-environmental behaviour (PEB) is misguided, and even potentially dangerous. After outlining Flyvbjerg’s argument, it reviews existing work on PEB and argues that, to date, it has predominantly sought after the Aristotelian intellectual virtues of either episteme or techne, and has neglected phronesis which Aristotle himself saw as most important. It then explores the ways in which aspects of a phronetic approach are being developed in cultural geography and environmental sociology, before offering a brief empirical case study of a PEB-change initiative to illustrate what a phronetic approach to research might look like. It concludes by calling for an improved and more reflexive dialogue between PEB researchers regarding the purpose and approach of their work, both in order to improve the relevance and impact of their research, and in order to help individuals and communities understand and confront the significant environmental challenges they currently face.     

Integrated geophysical and geological methods to investigate the inner and outer structures of the Quaternary Mýtina maar (W-Bohemia,Czech Republic)

The Mýtina maar is the first known Quaternary maar in the Bohemian Massif. Based on the results of Mrlina et al. (J Volcanol Geother Res 182:97–112, 2009), a multiparametric geophysical (electrical resistivity tomography, gravimetry, magnetometry, seismics) and geological/petrochemical research study had been carried out. The interpretation of the data has provided new information about the inner structure of the volcanic complex: (1) specification of the depth of post-volcanic sedimentary fill (up to ~100 m) and (2) magnetic and resistivity signs of one (or two) hidden volcanic structures interpreted as intrusions or remains of a scoria cone. The findings at the outer structure of the maar incorporate the (1) evidence of circular fracture zones outside the maar, (2) detection and distribution of volcanic ejecta and tephra-fall deposits at the surface, and (3) indications from electrical resistivity tomography and gravity data in the area between the Mýtina maar and ?elezná h?rka scoria cone, interpreted as a palaeovalley, filled by volcaniclastic rocks, and aligned along the strike line (NW–SE) of the Tachov fault zone. These findings are valuable contributions to extend the knowledge about structure of maar volcanoes in general. Because of ongoing active magmatic processes in the north-east part of the Cheb Basin (ca. 15–30 km north of the investigation area), the Mýtina maar-diatreme volcano and surroundings is a suitable key area for research directed to reconstruction of the palaeovolcanic evolution and assessment of possible future hazard potential in the Bohemian Massif.     

2006年ESRI开发者研讨会随笔

ESRI的国际用户研讨会5月17-18日在California举行,James Fee在自己的BLOG中谈到了这次研讨会中几个非常好的Comments,并对ArcGIS家族体系中的一些新特性给予了描绘。Web ADF它毫无疑问该排第一位。仅从用户及开发人员在9.1中配置专业地图存在的困难来说,Web ADF(译者注:Appli-