Towards the detection and attribution of an anthropogenic effect on climate

It has been hypothesized recently that regional-scale cooling caused by anthropogenic sulfate aerosols may be partially obscuring a warming signal associated with changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. Here we use results from model experiments in which sulfate and carbon dioxide have been varied individually and in combination in order to test this hypothesis. We use centered [R (t)] and uncentered [C (t)] pattern similarity statistics to compare observed time-evolving surface temperature change patterns with the model-predicted equilibrium signal patterns. We show that in most cases, the C (t) statistic reduces to a measure of observed global-mean temperature changes, and is of limited use in attributing observed climate changes to a specific causal mechanism. We therefore focus on R (t), which is a more useful statistic for discriminating between forcing mechanisms with different pattern signatures but similar rates of global mean change. Our results indicate that over the last 50 years, the summer (JJA) and fall (SON) observed patterns of near-surface temperature change show increasing similarity to the model-simulated response to combined sulfate aerosol/CO₂ forcing. At least some of this increasing spatial congruence occurs in areas where the real world has cooled. To assess the significance of the most recent trends in R (t) and C (t), we use data from multi-century control integrations performed with two different coupled atmosphere-ocean models, which provide information on the statistical behavior of 'unforced' trends in the pattern correlation statistics. For the combined sulfate aerosol/CO₂ experiment, the 50-year R (t) trends for the JJA and SON signals are highly significant. Results are robust in that they do not depend on the choice of control run used to estimate natural variability noise properties. The R (t) trends for the CO₂-only signal are not significant in any season. C (t) trends for signals from both the CO₂-only and combined forcing experiments are highly significant in all seasons and for all trend lengths (except for trends over the last 10 years), indicating large global-mean changes relative to the two natural variability estimates used here. The caveats regarding the signals and natural variability noise which form the basis of this study are numerous. Nevertheless, we have provided first evidence that both the largest-scale (global-mean) and smaller-scale (spatial anomalies about the global mean) components of a combined CO₂/anthropogenic sulfate aerosol signal are identifiable in the observed near-surface air temperature data. If the coupled-model noise estimates used here are realistic, we can be highly confident that the anthropogenic signal that we have identified is distinctly different from internally generated natural variability noise. The fact that we have been able to detect the detailed spatial signature in response to combined CO₂ and sulfate aerosol forcing, but not in response to CO₂ forcing alone, suggests that some of the regional-scale background noise (against which we were trying to detect a CO₂-only signal) is in fact part of the signal of a sulfate aerosol effect on climate. The large effect of sulfate aerosols found in this study demonstrates the importance of their inclusion in experiments designed to simulate past and future climate change. Received: 10 November 1994 / Accepted: 19 July 1995     

Applying Higher Order DIRK Time Steps to the "Modified Picard" Method

The “modified Picard” iteration method, which offers global mass conservation, can also be described as a form of Newton's iteration with lagged nonlinear coefficients. It converges to a time step with first-order discretization error. This paper applies second- and third-order diagonally implicit Runge Kutta (DIRK) time steps to the modified Picard method in one example. It demonstrates improvements over the first-order time step in rms error and error-times-effort model quality by factors ranging from two to over two orders of magnitude, showing that the “modified Picard” and DIRK methods are compatible.     

The Application of Petroleum Hydrocarbon Fingerprint Characterization in Site Investigation and Remediation

Tremendous resources have been and continue to be spent investigating and remediating petroleum hydrocarbon compounds (PHCs) in soil and ground water. Investigating and planning a remedial strategy for sites affected by PHCs is often a challenging task because of the complex chemical nature of the PHCs. the complex regulatory environment related to PHC cleanup, and the use of analytical methods that provide quantitation but not identification of PHCs. From a technical standpoint, the PHC impacting soil and/or ground water is frequently inadequately characterised, both in identification as well as in is general properties (solubility, toxicity). From a regulatory standpoint, promulgated or recommended total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH) cleanup levels generally relate to assumed properties of specific unweathered products and are inconsistent among different agencies and regions. This produces a prime situation for unwillingly spending more resources on investigation or remediation than may be necessary, especially when the PHC in the subsurface has different properties from unweathered products such as gasoline or diesel.
Accurately identifying the PHC and its nature, a process known as fingerprint characterization, is critical to the determination of appropriate regulatory goals and design of cost-effective remedial approaches. This paper presents several case studies in which fingerprint characterization made a significant difference in the project outcome. In each instance the nature of the organic material was better understood, the regulatory cleanup levels were negotiated based on the nature of the material, and a remedial approach was implemented that differed significantly from and was generally less costly than what would have been required without fingerprint characterization data.     

Characteristics of hydrothermal plumes from two vent fields on the Juan de Fuca Ridge, northeast Pacific Ocean

Deep CTD/transmissometer tows and water bottle sampling were used during 1985 to map the regional distribution of the neutrally-buoyant plumes emanating from each of two major vent fields on the Southern Symmetrical Segment (SSS) and Endeavour Segment (ES) of the Juan de Fuca Ridge. At both vent fields, emissions from point and diffuse hydrothermal sources coalesced into a single 200-m-thick plume elongated in the direction of current flow and with characteristic temperature anomalies of 0.02–0.05°C and light-attenuation anomalies of 0.01–0.08 m⁻¹ (10–80 μg/l above background). Temperature anomalies in the core of each plume were uniform as far downcurrent as the plumes were mapped (10–15 km). Downcurrent light-attenuation trends were non-uniform and differed between plumes, apparently because different vent fluid chemistries at each field cause significant differences in the settling characteristics of the hydrothermal precipitates. Vent fluids from the SSS are metal-dominated and mostly precipitate very fine-grained hydrous Fe-oxides that remain suspended in the plume. Vent fluids from the ES are sulfur-dominated and precipitate a high proportion of coarser-grained Fe-sulfides that rapidly settle from the plume. The integrated flux of each vent field was estimated from measurements of the advective transport of each plume. Heat flux was 1700 ± 1100 MW from the ES and 580 ± 351 MW from the SSS. Particle flux varied from 546 ± 312 g/s to 204 ± 116 g/s at the ES depending on distance from the vent field, and was 92 ± 48 g/s from the SSS.     

Dissolution of secondary copper sulphides using complex-forming agents (EDTA,EDA). Part I: Covellite dissolution in EDTA and EDA

Problems of dissolution of the so-called secondary copper sulphides are very important for dynamic as well as percolation leaching of ores. This paper deals with dissolution kinetics of sulphides in an alkaline medium, using complex-forming agents in connection with possibility to leach basic, partially oxidized ores. Natural minerals and their polydispersions were investigated and the so-called geometrical model was used for evaluation. Basic dependences of the dissolution rate on the reagent concentration and pH value of the leaching solution were found and an attempt at their mathematical expression and physical interpretation was made. The first part of this work refers to the systems of covellite-ethylene diamine tetra-acetic acid (EDTA) and covellite-ethylene diamine (EDA). The established dependences are not only of theoretical but also of practical importance.     

Dissolution of secondary copper sulphides using complex-forming agents (EDTA,EDA). Part II: Chalcocite dissolution in EDTA and EDA

This work is immediate continuation of Part I, using an identical method and evaluation for kinetic studies. The systems chalcocite-ethylene diamine tetra-acetic acid and chalcocite-ethylene diamine were studied. It was necessary to refine the geometrical model method for chalcocite in order to establish dissolution kinetics of polydispersions. This work confirms that chalcocite leaching proceeds through covellite even in the medium of complex-forming agents and kinetic equations for both leaching stages were evaluated with an attempt at physical interpretation.     

Proterozoic seawater — felsic volcanics interaction W. Bergslagen,Sweden. Evidence for high REE mobility and implications for 1.8 Ga seawater compositions

Mg enrichment in diffusely bounded, schistose alteration zones occurring in Proterozoic submarine felsic volcanics NE of Hjulsjö, W. Bergslagen is shown to result from felsic rock-seawater interaction in a sub-seafloor hydrothermal system. The alteration is apparently in two stages, feldspar being altered first to a kaolinite-type clay which is then replaced by Mg-chlorite. Major and trace element data are presented for the schist and sheridanite (chlorite). Relative to the least altered felsic volcanics, and for negligible volume change, the schist shows strong addition of Mg and to a lesser extent Si; K, Al and Rb are apparently conserved, while most other elements are strongly depleted, including the REEs which are removed for ～75%, indicating a high degree of mobility. The chlorite, with its HREE enriched pattern, is considered to have equilibrated with the hydrothermal fluid, which consisted predominantly of seawater. Comparison with modern seawater leads to the tentative conclusion that the Proterozoic seawater HREE composition was not drastically different from that of modern seawater.