离散选择模型研究进展

本文从离散选择模型(discrete choice model, DCM)体系的一般原理和应用价值出发,总结了各经典模型的基本理论和典型应用,并概括了近来年一些重要的研究新动向。多项Logit模型(multinomial logit model, MNL)是离散选择模型体系的基础,具有简洁、可靠、易实现等优点,但也存在固有的理论缺陷,由此产生了对更加精细化模型的需求。替代的精细化模型中,嵌套Logit模型(nested logit model, NL)常用于处理备选项相关、“都不选”备选项、数据合并等问题,一般极值模型(generalized extreme value model, GEV)体系是其更一般的形式;混合Logit模型(mixed logit model, MXL)可用于解决随机偏好问题和多种相关问题,包括备选项相关、面版数据相关、随机系数相关、数据合并等,与之类似的潜在类别模型也有着广泛应用;多项Probit模型(multinomial probit model, MNP)具有极高的灵活性,但其复杂的模型设定与庞大的运算量大大制约了其应用范围。本文在研究新动向上介绍了4个重要的研究关注点：由多种经典模型形式相结合而成的复杂模型;面向RP/SP数据、定序、排序、多选等不同数据类型的适宜模型;基于各种受限理性选择策略的更为真实的模型;以及考虑选择的时空背景的模型。     

基于响应面法对丹参毛状根诱导条件的优化研究

目的：应用响应面法优化丹参毛状根诱导条件,提高其诱导率。方法：采用发根农杆菌ATCC15834侵染丹参无菌苗获得毛状根,在单因素实验的基础上,利用Box-Benhnkcn设计和响应面分析方法对丹参毛状根诱导过程的培养条件（叶片大小、农杆菌活力、侵染时间、共培养时间、抗生素浓度）进行分析,优选最佳培养条件。结果：丹参毛状根在无外源激素的MS培养基上自主生长,表现出典型的发根特征。毛状根的最优培养条件为：叶片大小0.8cm,农杆菌OD600为1.0,共培养时间2d,农杆菌侵染时间5min,头孢噻吩浓度400ng/L。在此条件下,丹参毛状根的诱导率为69.8%。结论：该研究优化了丹参毛状根的培养条件,为丹参的进一步开发利用提供了依据。     

Quantitative human risk analysis of 2015 Shenzhen dump failure considering influence of urbanization

With the rapid development of urbanization, a large amount of construction spoil was stockpiled around cities and formed extensive dumps. Construction spoil is one of the main construction and demolition(CD) waste and municipal solid waste(MSW). Once the construction spoil dump becomes unstable, it will bring great risks to the surrounding residents. A catastrophic dump failure occurred on 20 December 2015 in Guangming New Strict, Shenzhen, China. Approximately 2.51×106 m3 of construction waste slid out from the dumpsite, destroying 33 houses and causing total 77 casualties. This paper attempts to analyze the failure probability of the construction spoil dump using Monte Carlo simulation considering the spatial variability of soil properties, and to quantify the dynamic human risk considering the increasing urbanization. Influence of urbanization on the human element at risk is analyzed by referring to multi-temporal remote sensing images. A quantitative human risk assessment model is employed to determine the landslide human risk referring an assessment criteria curve between frequency of number fatalities and number of fatalities(F-N curve). It is found that the societal risk at daytime was 0.078, 0.088, and 1.432 in 2002, 2014, and 2015, respectively. Meanwhile, the societal risk at night was 0.034, 0.037, and 0.611 in 2002, 2014, and 2015, respectively. The quantitative method was benchmarked by the other landfill failure. It implies that the human risk increased with the development of urbanization and its value at daytime was approximately twice as much as at night. The new approach for the human risk assessment provides guidance for modern MSW landfills and highlights the obvious influence of urbanization on the human risk in other areas.     

北祁连拉硐超基性岩体铬尖晶石特征研究及找矿意义

拉硐超基性岩体位于青海省祁连县城东北约15 km处,面积约7．6 km2,岩性主要由蛇纹石化橄榄岩、蛇纹石化辉榄岩、蛇纹岩及纯橄岩组成,共发现157个铬铁矿小矿体,铬铁矿体成群出现,依据野外铬铁矿体分布范围,自西向东划分为10个矿带,通过对其中铬尖晶石取样分析研究,并与区内其他含矿岩体中铬尖晶石样品化验分析结果对比,确定该类岩体不同岩性组合带的找矿方向。     

宜昌煤系煅烧高岭土表面改性及其在电缆胶料中的应用

利用硅烷/脂肪酸复配偶联剂对煤系煅烧高岭土进行表面改性实验,通过红外光谱分析和活化率测定表明,硅烷偶联剂接枝到煅烧高岭土表面,改性的煅烧高岭土由亲水性变为亲油性;实验中探讨了煅烧高岭土的粒度和填充量对电缆胶料物理机械性能的影响.表面改性的煅烧高岭土用于电缆胶料,能明显提高其物理机械性能,各项指标达到或超过有关技术标准.     

Water and sediment quality assessment in the mid-Black Sea coast of Turkey using multivariate statistical techniques

The aim of this study was to investigate the water and sediment quality in the mid-Black Sea coast of Turkey. The samples were collected from six stations during 2007. Investigated parameters were total carbon (TC), total inorganic carbon (TIC), total organic carbon (TOC), ammonium-nitrogen (NH₄-N), nitrate-nitrogen (NO₃-N), nitrite-nitrogen (NO₂-N), total phosphorus (TP), sulphate, total hardness, methylene blue active substances (MBAS), phenol, adsorbable organic halogens (AOX), dissolved oxygen (DO), pH and electrical conductivity (EC) in water samples and TC, TIC, TOC, TP, pH, electrical conductivity (EC), redox potential (Eh) and water content (WC) in sediment samples. Different multivariate statistical techniques were used to evaluate variations in surface water and sediment quality. Principal component analysis helped in identifying the factors or sources responsible for water and sediment quality variations. Five factors were found responsible for 87.63% of the total variance in the surface waters. In sediments, three factors explained 84.73% of the observed total variance. Cluster analysis classified the monitoring sites into two groups based on similarities of water and sediment quality characteristics.     

基于加密自动气象观测站和国家气象观测站的山东省极端短时强降水时空分布特征的对比分析

利用2008—2017年4一10月山东省加密自动气象观测站(简称全部站)和国家气象观测站(简称国家站)逐小时1 mm以上降水量资料,通过对比分析,探究不同分辨率数据对极端短时强降水时空分布特征的刻画效果。结果表明如下:全部站小时降水量的偏态特征比国家站明显,若分析小时降水量的平均状态,两者均具有代表性,若分析短时强降水的极端性,全部站数据更具有优越性。将各站第99.5%分位数作为极端短时强降水的阈值最合理,全部站和国家站对于30～45 mm阈值的空间分布特征相似,45 mm以上的阈值,全部站的数值和范围均大于国家站。山东省大部地区的极端短时强降水强度集中在40～60 mm·h~(-1),全部站和国家站在此区间的空间分布特征相似。国家站数据不能刻画40 mm·h~(-1)以下和60 mm·h~(-1)以上的极端短时强降水的空间分布特征。极端短时强降水强度的空间分布特征与地理位置及地形特征密切相关。鲁东南地区的极端短时强降水强度、日最大降水量及夏季降水量、年降水量均居山东省之首,鲁西北地区虽然强降水频次高、强度大,但与年降水量和夏季降水量没有正相关关系。全部站与国家站极端短时强降水频次的月变化和日变化特征一致,但国家站不能完全代表山东省极端短时强降水强度的月变化和日变化平均状况,全部站数据能更准确地反映山东省的时间变化特征。     

面向福祉和公平的需求侧减排路径、潜力与政策

需求侧减排是协同实现碳中和目标与民生福祉、社会公平改善的重要抓手,也是以“人”为中心连接不同可持续发展目标的关键纽带。IPCC第六次评估报告首次独立成章（第五章）介绍应对气候变化的需求侧解决方案。报告将需求侧减排与福祉、公平等目标关联起来,依循“避免-转变-改进（ASI）”的战略框架,梳理了需求侧的减排措施和减排潜力;揭示了社会文化、心理活动、技术水平和基础设施等因素对需求侧减排的关键驱动作用,指出多种驱动因素之间相互依赖,呈现叠加效应;明确了激发需求侧减排的动力和能力需要科学的行为干预和政策设计以推动系统性变革。文中对该章主要结论做扼要解读,同时就该章节对中国的相关研究和政策启示展开讨论。     

松辽盆地白垩系泉头组碎屑沉积岩Nd、Pb同位素组成及成岩物质来源初步探讨

本文研究了松辽盆地庆安地区盖层白垩系泉头组碎屑沉积岩以及相关基底花岗岩的Nd、Pb同位素组成。结果表明,白垩系泉头组碎屑沉积岩和花岗岩都为地壳物质产物,其物质来源以先存陆壳的再循环物质为主,并且碎屑沉积岩和粗粒黑云母花岗岩和粗粒似斑状二长花岗岩的物质来源主要为上地壳,而细粒碱长花岗岩主要为下地壳;Pb同位素组成表明碎屑沉积岩和粗粒黑云母花岗岩和粗粒似斑状二长花岗岩属于同源产物,细粒碱长花岗岩则不同于前两者。通过对比Nd同位素组成,表明松辽盆地庆安地区的物质环境和物源与华北地块相近,而不同于华南地块,似应归于华北地块范畴。     

印度尼西亚红土型镍矿

红土型镍矿分布在环太平洋亚热带-热带多雨地区。镍矿体产于趟基性岩上部的红土风化壳中,受地形控制明显,成因类型为红土型硅酸镍氧化矿,以褐铁矿型和腐岩型为主,矿石质量和可利用性均较好。