Monte Carlo modeling of sodium in Mercury’s exosphere during the first two MESSENGER flybys

We present a Monte Carlo model of the distribution of neutral sodium in Mercury’s exosphere and tail using data from the Mercury Atmospheric and Surface Composition Spectrometer (MASCS) on the MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) spacecraft during the first two flybys of the planet in January and September 2008. We show that the dominant source mechanism for ejecting sodium from the surface is photon-stimulated desorption (PSD) and that the desorption rate is limited by the diffusion rate of sodium from the interior of grains in the regolith to the topmost few monolayers where PSD is effective. In the absence of ion precipitation, we find that the sodium source rate is limited to ∼10⁶-10⁷ cm⁻² s⁻¹, depending on the sticking efficiency of exospheric sodium that returns to the surface. The diffusion rate must be at least a factor of 5 higher in regions of ion precipitation to explain the MASCS observations during the second MESSENGER flyby. We estimate that impact vaporization of micrometeoroids may provide up to 15% of the total sodium source rate in the regions observed. Although sputtering by precipitating ions was found not to be a significant source of sodium during the MESSENGER flybys, ion precipitation is responsible for increasing the source rate at high latitudes through ion-enhanced diffusion.     

A century of climate and ecosystem change in Western Montana: what do temperature trends portend?

The physical science linking human-induced increases in greenhouse gasses to the warming of the global climate system is well established, but the implications of this warming for ecosystem processes and services at regional scales is still poorly understood. Thus, the objectives of this work were to: (1) describe rates of change in temperature averages and extremes for western Montana, a region containing sensitive resources and ecosystems, (2) investigate associations between Montana temperature change to hemispheric and global temperature change, (3) provide climate analysis tools for land and resource managers responsible for researching and maintaining renewable resources, habitat, and threatened/endangered species and (4) integrate our findings into a more general assessment of climate impacts on ecosystem processes and services over the past century. Over 100 years of daily and monthly temperature data collected in western Montana, USA are analyzed for long-term changes in seasonal averages and daily extremes. In particular, variability and trends in temperature above or below ecologically and socially meaningful thresholds within this region (e.g., ?17.8°C (0°F), 0°C (32°F), and 32.2°C (90°F)) are assessed. The daily temperature time series reveal extremely cold days (≤??17.8°C) terminate on average 20 days earlier and decline in number, whereas extremely hot days (≥32°C) show a three-fold increase in number and a 24-day increase in seasonal window during which they occur. Results show that regionally important thresholds have been exceeded, the most recent of which include the timing and number of the 0°C freeze/thaw temperatures during spring and fall. Finally, we close with a discussion on the implications for Montana’s ecosystems. Special attention is given to critical processes that respond non-linearly as temperatures exceed critical thresholds, and have positive feedbacks that amplify the changes.     

Mechanisms and pathways of lateral flow on aspen‐forested,Luvisolic soils,Western Boreal Plains,Alberta, Canada

Rainfall simulation experiments by Redding and Devito ( 2008 , Hydrological Processes 23: 4287–4300) on two adjacent plots of contrasting antecedent soil moisture storage on an aspen‐forested hillslope on the Boreal Plain showed that lateral flow generation occurred only once large soil storage capacity was saturated combined with a minimum event precipitation of 15–20 mm. This paper extends the results of Redding and Devito ( 2008 , Hydrological Processes 23: 4287–4300) with detailed analysis of pore pressure, soil moisture and tracer data from the rainfall simulation experiments, which is used to identify lateral flow generation mechanisms and flow pathways. Lateral flow was not generated until soils were wet into the fine textured C horizon. Lateral flow occurred dominantly through the clay‐rich Bt horizon by way of root channels. Lateral flow during the largest event was dominated by event water, and precipitation intensity was critical in lateral flow generation. Lateral flow was initiated as preferential flow near the soil surface into root channels, followed by development of a perched water table at depth, which also interacted with preferential flow pathways to move water laterally by the transmissivity feedback mechanism. The results indicate that lateral flow generated by rainfall on these hillslopes is uncommon because of the generally high available soil moisture storage capacity and the low probability of rainfall events of sufficient magnitude and intensity. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Delineation of capture zones for municipal wells in fractured dolomite, Sturgeon Bay, Wisconsin, USA

A wellhead protection study for the city of Sturgeon Bay, Wisconsin, USA, demonstrates the necessity of combining detailed hydrostratigraphic analysis with groundwater modeling to delineate zones of contribution for municipal wells in a fractured dolomite aquifer. A numerical model (MODFLOW) was combined with a particle tracking code (MODPATH) to simulate the regional groundwater system and to delineate capture zones for municipal wells. The hydrostratigraphic model included vertical and horizontal fractures and high-permeability zones. Correlating stratigraphic interpretations with field data such as geophysical logs, packer tests, and fracture mapping resulted in the construction of a numerical model with five high-permeability zones related to bedding planes or facies changes. These zones serve as major conduits for horizontal groundwater flow. Dipping fracture zones were simulated as thin high-permeability layers. The locations of exposed bedrock and surficial karst features were used to identify areas of enhanced recharge. Model results show the vulnerability of the municipal wells to pollution. Capture zones for the wells extend several kilometers north and south from the city. Travel times from recharge areas to all wells were generally less than one year. The high seasonal variability of recharge in the study area made the use of a transient model necessary. Electronic Publication     

Precambrian plate tectonics: The midcontinent gravity high

Examination of the shape of the midcontinent gravity high of central North America has led to the hypothesis that the Keweenawan rift system that caused it is the result of plate tectonic interaction. A numerical test has been carried out on the width and postulated transform fault offsets of the gravity high. The exactness of fit to a plate tectonic geometry implies that the continental lithosphere behaved as rigid plates during the Late Precambrian, about 1.1 by ago. This exactness of fit also suggests that the total amount of separation on the Keweenawan rifts is equal to the width of the gravity high. Gravity modelling studies bear out the plausibility of a major amount of rifting, up to 90 km under central Lake Superior. The midcontinent gravity high may represent an intermediate stage of continental rifting, since similar gravity highs and strong associated magnetic anomalies are found on the modern rifted margins of the Atlantic Ocean.     

Experimental cpx/melt partitioning of 24 trace elements

Cpx/melt partition coefficients have been determined by ion probe for 24 trace elements at natural levels in an alkali basalt experimentally equilibrated at 1,380°C and 3 GPa. One goal was to intercompare Ds for both high-field-strength elements and rare earth elements (REE) in a single experiment. Relative to the REE spidergram, Hf and Ti show virtually no anomaly, whereas Zr exhibits a major negative anomaly. Other incompatible elements (Ba, K, Nb) fall in the range of published values, as do elements such as Sr, Y, Sc, Cr and V. Pb shows a value intermediate between La and Ce. Values for Be, Li and Ga are reported for the first time, and show that Be is as incompatible as the light REEs whereas Li and Ga are somewhat more compatible than the heavy REE.     

Using logistic regression to merge mineral resource databases

The purpose of this project was to develop and test a methodology for determining the likelihood that mineral resource location records from two nationwide mineral resource information databases represent the same site. The long-term goal is to create a comprehensive database by merging the Mineral Resource Data System (MRDS) of the U.S. Geological Survey, and the Mineral Availability System/Mineral Industry Location System (MAS/MILS) of the U.S. Bureau of Mines (now part of the Geological Survey). Part of that process involves linking records for the same site from each database. Match probabilities were estimated using a logistic regression of mineral resource location attributes, derived from known matched (cross-referenced) and known unmatched randomly sampled mineral site pairs from within the conterminous United States (n=10,000). Model accuracy was assessed using a randomly sampled test dataset, not used in logistic model development (n=4,000). Probability distributions were similar between the development and test datasets. The overall agreement beyond chance was good for the test data set using the kappa statistic. Classification accuracy was 89.6% for known matched site pairs and 84.0% for known unmatched site pairs based on a probability threshold of 0.50 for a match. Distributions of attributes were similar between the development and test datasets. This classification method is a viable approach for estimating match probabilities between database records.