Modelling change in the Peruvian-Chilean Eastern Pacific Fisheries

Time-series analyses of the Peruvian-Chilean Eastern Pacific Fisheries output are presented. The paper discusses how human action and adverse environmental conditions have affected regional productivity levels and fish stock. It is shown that overfishing during critical environmental periods is the likely cause for fluctuations in regional output and the decline of Peru's fishing (anchovy) industry, in opposition to the theory that holds that stock depletion is caused solely by ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) events. Policy implications are drawn from empirical findings, tressing the need for strict resource management and future restrictions on fish captures when ENSO events are highly probable.     

Surface and subsurface sedimentary structures produced by salt crusts

The growth and subsequent dissolution of salts on or within sediment may alter sedimentary structures and textures to such an extent that it is difficult to identify the depositional origin of that sediment and, as a result, the sediment may be misinterpreted. To help to overcome such problems with investigating ancient successions, results are presented from a comprehensive study of the morphology and fabrics of three large areas of modern salt flats in SE Arabia: the Sabkhat Matti inland region and the At Taf coastal region, both in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi, and the Umm as Samim region in Oman. These salt flats are affected by tidal‐marine, alluvial and aeolian depositional processes and include both clastic‐ and carbonate‐dominated surficial sediments. The efflorescent and precipitated salt crusts in these areas can be grouped into two main types: thick crusts, with high relief (>10 cm) and a polygonal or blocky morphology; or thin crusts, with low relief (<10 cm) and a polygonal or blister‐like appearance. The thin crusts may assume the surface morphology of underlying features, such as ripples or biogenic mats. A variety of small‐scale textures were observed: pustular growths, hair‐like spikes and irregular wrinkles. Evolution of these crusts over time results in a variety of distinctive sedimentary fabrics produced by salt‐growth sediment deformation, salt‐solution sediment collapse, sediment aggradation and compound mixtures of these processes. Salt‐crust processes produce features that may be confused with aeolian adhesion structures. An example from the Lower Triassic Ormskirk Sandstone Formation of the Irish Sea Basin demonstrates how this knowledge of modern environments improves the interpretation of the rock record. A distinctive wavy‐laminated facies in this formation had previously been interpreted as the product of fluvial sheetfloods modified by soft‐sediment deformation and bioturbation. Close inspection of laminations seen in core reveals many of the same sedimentary fabrics seen in SE Arabia associated with salt crusts. This facies is the product of salt growth on aeolian sediment and is not of fluvial origin.     

Usage of strain and vorticity analyses to interpret large‐scale fold mechanisms along the Sanandaj–Sirjan HP‐LT metamorphic belt,SW Iran

3D finite strain analyses and kinematic vorticity measurements were carried out on the Loghon Anticline within the HP‐LT Sanandaj–Sirjan metamorphic belt (Neyriz area, SW Iran). Rƒ/φ and Fry methods were used on the strain markers (e.g. deformed fossils) to interpret geometric relationships between the fold axis, strain ellipsoid axes and shear zone boundaries. The results indicate the predominance of prolate strain in the anticline. Quantitative kinematic analyses show that the W_k parameter is 0. 67 ± 0. 06 (i.e. pure‐shear dominated non‐coaxial flow). This study quantitatively supports the establishment of a dextral transpressive system, which is responsible for the development of the large‐scale right‐lateral shear zones that strike sub‐parallel to the major folds. Flexural shear combined with regional dextral‐shear is suggested to be the most common mechanism of folding in this area. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seasonal rainfall–runoff relationships in a lowland forested watershed in the southeastern USA

Hydrological processes of lowland watersheds of the southern USA are not well understood compared to a hilly landscape due to their unique topography, soil compositions, and climate. This study describes the seasonal relationships between rainfall patterns and runoff (sum of storm flow and base flow) using 13 years (1964–1976) of rainfall and stream flow data for a low‐gradient, third‐order forested watershed. It was hypothesized that runoff–rainfall ratios (R/P) are smaller during the dry periods (summer and fall) and greater during the wet periods (winter and spring). We found a large seasonal variability in event R/P potentially due to differences in forest evapotranspiration that affected seasonal soil moisture conditions. Linear regression analysis results revealed a significant relationship between rainfall and runoff for wet (r² = 0·68; p < 0·01) and dry (r² = 0·19; p = 0·02) periods. Rainfall‐runoff relationships based on a 5‐day antecedent precipitation index (API) showed significant (r² = 0·39; p < 0·01) correspondence for wet but not (r² = 0·02; p = 0·56) for dry conditions. The same was true for rainfall‐runoff relationships based on 30‐day API (r² = 0·39; p < 0·01 for wet and r² = 0·00; p = 0·79 for dry). Stepwise regression analyses suggested that runoff was controlled mainly by rainfall amount and initial soil moisture conditions as represented by the initial flow rate of a storm event. Mean event R/P were higher for the wet period (R/P = 0·33), and the wet antecedent soil moisture condition based on 5‐day (R/P = 0·25) and 30‐day (R/P = 0·26) prior API than those for the dry period conditions. This study suggests that soil water status, i.e. antecedent soil moisture and groundwater table level, is important besides the rainfall to seasonal runoff generation in the coastal plain region with shallow soil argillic horizons. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Europe adapts to climate change: Comparing National Adaptation Strategies

For the last two decades, European climate policy has focused almost exclusively on mitigation of climate change. It was only well after the turn of the century, with impacts of climate change increasingly being observed, that adaptation was added to the policy agenda and EU Member States started to develop National Adaptation Strategies (NASs). This paper reviews seven National Adaptation Strategies that were either formally adopted or under development by Member States at the end of 2008. The strategies are analysed under the following six themes. Firstly, the factors motivating and facilitating the development of a national adaptation strategy. Secondly, the scientific and technical support needed for the development and implementation of such a strategy. Thirdly, the role of the strategy in information, communication and awareness-raising of the adaptation issue. Fourthly, new or existing forms of multi-level governance to implement the proposed actions. Fifthly, how the strategy addresses integration and coordination with other policy domains. Finally, how the strategy suggests the implementation and how the strategy is evaluated. The paper notes that the role of National Adaptation Strategies in the wider governance of adaptation differs between countries but clearly benchmarks a new political commitment to adaptation at national policy levels. However, we also find that in most cases approaches for implementing and evaluating the strategies are yet to be defined. The paper concludes that even though the strategies show great resemblance in terms of topics, methods and approaches, there are many institutional challenges, including multi-level governance and policy integration issues, which can act as considerable barriers in future policy implementation.     

Measurement of Carbon Dioxide Emissions Plumes from Prudhoe Bay, Alaska Oil Fields

Large carbon dioxide plumes with concentrations up to 45 ppm aboveambient levels were measured about 15 km downwind of the Prudhoe Bay, Alaskamajor oil production facilities, located at 70° N Lat. above the ArcticCircle. The measured emissions were 1.3 × 10³ metrictons (C) hour^-1 (11.4× 10⁶ metric tons(C) year^-1), six times greater than the combustion emissionsassumed by Jaffe and coworkers in J. Atmos. Chem. 20 (1995), 213–227,based on 1989 reported Prudhoe Bay oil facility fuel consumption data, andfour times greater than the total C emissions reported by the oil facilitiesfor the same months as the measurement time periods. Variations in theemissions were estimated by extrapolating the observed emissions at a singlealtitude for all tundra research transect flights conducted downwind of theoil fields. These 30 flights yielded an average emission rate of1.02 × 10³ metric tons (C) hour^-1 with astandard deviation of 0.33 × 10³. These quantity ofemissions are roughly equivalent to the carbon dioxide emissions of7–10 million hectares of arctic tussock tundra (Oechel and Vourlitis,Trends in Ecol. Evolution 9 (1994), 324–329).     

Soil moisture and rainfall intensity thresholds for runoff generation in southwestern Wisconsin agricultural watersheds

The goal of this study was to improve understanding of the factors that influence runoff generation during non‐frozen ground periods in small agricultural watersheds in southwestern Wisconsin where the landscapes are controlled by dolostone bedrock in order to provide agricultural producers with a manure management tool. Six small watersheds (ranging from 6 to 17 ha) within two southwestern Wisconsin farm sites (Discovery Farms Program (DFP) and Pioneer Farm (PF)) were instrumented, and surface runoff was continuously monitored from 2004 to 2007. The soils in all watersheds were formed in deep (~1 m) loessial sites. A direct‐plant management strategy and corn‐soybean crop rotation were utilized within watersheds at DFP. A conventional tillage system (chisel plow in the fall followed by soil finisher in the spring) and a corn‐oat‐alfalfa crop rotation were utilized within watersheds at PF. At PF, the amount of precipitation leaving the landscape as surface runoff (1.8%) was two times greater compared to DFP (0.9%), indicating that the direct‐plant management system was better at retaining precipitation than the chisel plow/soil finisher system. Using breakpoint regression analysis, a non‐linear response in runoff generation with antecedent soil moisture (ASM) was observed with a threshold ASM of 0.39 cm³cm^?3 (approximately 80% of total porosity) for all six watersheds. Below this threshold, runoff coefficients were near zero. Above this threshold, runoff coefficients increased with ASM. A non‐linear response in runoff generation with maximum 30 min rainfall intensity (I30) was also observed, and threshold I30 values increased as ASM decreased and as crop cover increased. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The influence of synoptic airflow on UK daily precipitation extremes. Part II: regional climate model and E-OBS data validation

We investigate how well the variability of extreme daily precipitation events across the United Kingdom is represented in a set of regional climate models and the E-OBS gridded data set. Instead of simply evaluating the climatologies of extreme precipitation measures, we develop an approach to validate the representation of physical mechanisms controlling extreme precipitation variability. In part I of this study we applied a statistical model to investigate the influence of the synoptic scale atmospheric circulation on extreme precipitation using observational rain gauge data. More specifically, airflow strength, direction and vorticity are used as predictors for the parameters of the generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution of local precipitation extremes. Here we employ this statistical model for our validation study. In a first step, the statistical model is calibrated against a gridded precipitation data set provided by the UK Met Office. In a second step, the same statistical model is calibrated against 14 ERA40 driven 25?km resolution RCMs from the ENSEMBLES project and the E-OBS gridded data set. Validation indices describing relevant physical mechanisms are derived from the statistical models for observations and RCMs and are compared using pattern standard deviation, pattern correlation and centered pattern root mean squared error as validation measures. The results for the different RCMs and E-OBS are visualised using Taylor diagrams. We show that the RCMs adequately simulate moderately extreme precipitation and the influence of airflow strength and vorticity on precipitation extremes, but show deficits in representing the influence of airflow direction. Also very rare extremes are misrepresented, but this result is afflicted with a high uncertainty. E-OBS shows considerable biases, in particular in regions of sparse data. The proposed approach might be used to validate other physical relationships in regional as well as global climate models.     

Empirical predictors of annual bed load travel distance,and implications for salmonid habitat restoration and protection

Measurements of annual travel distance (L_b) of bed load sediment at 16 locations in Alaska, the intermountain USA, west coast USA and Scotland are strongly correlated with bankfull channel width (r² = 0·86, p < 0·001). Travel distance of particles is probably limited by trapping in bars, which have a longitudinal spacing proportional to channel width. Increased abundance of woody debris reduces bar spacing and may reduce L_b. Longer cumulative duration of bed load transporting flows in a year appears to increase L_b. Other predictors of annual travel distance such as stream power per unit length, drainage area and bankfull discharge were less well correlated with L_b (r² ranging from 0·27 to 0·51). Stream power per unit bed area, basal shear stress and slope were not significantly related to L_b (r² < 0·05). Most correlations were improved when regressions were limited to data from the west coast USA. Travel distance estimates can be used to help identify reaches that may take longer to recover from large, short‐term increases in sediment supply. Published in 2001 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.