气候系统预测:基础创新和集成应用

随着全球变暖,极端天气气候事件增强,天气气候灾害造成的损失也愈发严重。当前气候预测的准确性远远不能满足社会需要,气候系统预测理论和方法面临着众多挑战性问题。为提档气候预测科学水平和准确率,由南京信息工程大学和中山大学承担的“气候系统预测研究中心”获得国家自然科学基金基础科学中心项目支持(2021年1月—2025年12月)。在该项目执行的前三年,项目团队开展了大量深入系统的研究,并取得了若干重要进展:1)揭示了气候系统的若干关键变化、驱动力和机制;2)剖析了海-陆-冰-气相互作用对我国重大极端气候事件的影响;3)在气候系统数值模式研发和预测系统集成方面取得重要进展;4)发展了延伸期-S2S-年代际的气候系统预测理论和方法。本文对这些进展作了扼要介绍,并针对气候与环境变化归因、古今气候环境研究融合、跨时空气候系统变异和极端气候、人工智能与气候科学、年代际预测和风险应对体系等关键科学问题做了展望。     

Late Miocene evaporite geochemistry of Lorca and Fortuna basins (Eastern Betics,SE Spain): Evidence of restriction and continentalization

The Lorca and Fortuna basins are two intramontane Neogene basins located in the eastern Betic Cordillera (SE Spain). During the Late Tortonian—Early Messinian, marine and continental evaporites precipitated in these basins as a consequence of increased marine restriction and isolation. Here we show a stratigraphic correlation between the evaporite records of these basins based on geochemical indicators. We use SO₄ isotope compositions and Sr isotopic ratios in gypsum, and halite Br contents to characterize these units and to identify the marine or continental source of the waters feeding the evaporite basins. In addition, we review the available chronological information used to date these evaporites in Lorca (La Serrata Fm), including a thick saline deposit, that we correlate with the First Evaporitic Group in Fortuna (Los Baños Fm). This correlation is also supported by micropalaeontological data, giving a Late Tortonian age for this sequence. The Second Evaporitic Group, (Chicamo Fm), and the Third Evaporitic Group (Rambla Salada Fm) developed only in Fortuna during the Messinian. According to the palaeogeographical scheme presented here, the evaporites of the Lorca and Fortuna basins were formed during the Late Tortonian—Early Messinian, close to the Betic Seaway closure. Sulphate isotope compositions and Sr isotopic ratios of the Ribera Gypsum Mb, at the base of the Rambla Salada Fm (Fortuna basin), match those of the Late Messinian selenite gypsum beds in San Miguel de Salinas, in the near Bajo Segura basin (40 km to the East), and other Messinian Salinity Crisis gypsum deposits in the Mediterranean. According to these geochemical indicators and the uncertainty of the chronology of this unit, the assignment of the Rambla Salada Fm to the MSC cannot be ruled out.     

The effect of chlorine and chlorine dioxide on pathogenic free‐living amoebae (PFLA) in simulated natural conditions: The presence of bacteria and organic matter

Bacteria and bovine faecal matter were introduced into cultures of pathogenic free‐living amoebae, with chlorine or chlorine dioxide. The bacteria and faeces were to simulate natural conditions for a more exacting test of disinfectant demand when compared to axenic conditions. Both chlorine and chlorine dioxide were effective disinfectants under all conditions tested. Axenically and monoxenically cultured amoebae were used, the latter exerted a greater disinfectant demand.     

Multibeam sonar backscatter data processing

Multibeam sonar systems now routinely record seafloor backscatter data, which are processed into backscatter mosaics and angular responses, both of which can assist in identifying seafloor types and morphology. Those data products are obtained from the multibeam sonar raw data files through a sequence of data processing stages that follows a basic plan, but the implementation of which varies greatly between sonar systems and software. In this article, we provide a comprehensive review of this backscatter data processing chain, with a focus on the variability in the possible implementation of each processing stage. Our objective for undertaking this task is twofold: (1) to provide an overview of backscatter data processing for the consideration of the general user and (2) to provide suggestions to multibeam sonar manufacturers, software providers and the operators of these systems and software for eventually reducing the lack of control, uncertainty and variability associated with current data processing implementations and the resulting backscatter data products. One such suggestion is the adoption of a nomenclature for increasingly refined levels of processing, akin to the nomenclature adopted for satellite remote-sensing data deliverables.     

ENSO evolution asymmetry: EP versus CP El Niño

Through an oceanic mixed-layer heat budget analysis, the dominant processes contributing to the largest decay rate (− 0.37 °C/mon) in EP El Nino, the moderate delay rate (− 0.22 °C/mon) in CP El Nino and the smallest decay rate (0.13 °C/mon) in La Nina, are identified. The result shows that both dynamic (wind induced equatorial ocean waves and thermocline changes) and thermodynamic (net surface solar radiation and latent heat flux changes) processes contribute to a fast decay and thus phase transition in EP El Niño composite, whereas the thermodynamic process has less effect on the decay rate for both CP El Niño and La Niña due to the westward shift of sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) centers. Thus, the difference in surface wind stress forcing is critical in contributing to evolution asymmetry between CP El Niño and La Niña, while the difference in both the wind stress and heat flux anomalies contribute to evolution asymmetry between EP El Niño and La Niña. It is interesting to note that El Nino induced anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific is stronger and shifts more toward the east during EP El Niño than during CP El Niño, while compared to CP El Niño, the center of an anomalous cyclone during La Niña shifts further to the west. As a consequence, both EP and CP El Niño decay fast and transform into a La Niña episode in the subsequent year, whereas La Niña has a much slower decay rate and re-develops in the second year.

     

Seasonal changes in community composition and trophic structure of fish populations of five salt marshes along the Essex coastline, United Kingdom

European intertidal salt marshes are important nursery sites for juvenile fish and crustaceans. Due to the increasing threat of habitat loss, the seasonal changes of salt marsh fish communities need to be understood in order to appreciate the ecological and economic importance of the saltmarsh habitat. This study was the first in Great Britain to investigate the seasonal changes of salt marsh fish communities and the variation in community structure between closely located marsh habitats. Between February 2007 and March 2008, five marshes on three estuaries of the Essex coastline were sampled using flume nets to block off intertidal creeks at high tide. Fourteen fish species were caught. The community overall was dominated by three species that made up 91.6% of the total catch: the common goby Pomatoschistus microps (46.2% of the total catch), juvenile herring Clupea harengus (24.3%), and juvenile and larval sea bass Dicentrarchus labrax (21.2%). Cluster analysis demonstrated clear seasonal patterns, with some community structures unique to specific marshes or estuaries. The marsh fish community shifts from a highly diverse community during spring, to a community dominated by D. labrax and P. microps in autumn, and low diversity during winter months. Gravimetric stomach content analysis of fish community identified three main trophic guilds; macroinvertivores, planktivores and omnivores. The macroinvertivore feeding guild contained D. labrax and P. microps, the two most frequently occurring species. This investigation demonstrates the importance of British salt marshes as nursery habitats for commercial fish species.     

The impact of artisanal fishing on coral reef fish health in Hat Thai Mueang,Phang-nga Province,Southern Thailand

This study investigates whether there has been a decline in fish stocks of a coral reef in Thailand, and if so, whether that decline is due to small-scale fishing. The research methods used included fish sampling by UVC, interviews and questionnaires with key informants and artisanal fishers. The results confirmed that there has been a decline in piscivores and carnivores (though not herbivores), and the main perceived threat came not from artisanal but from commercial fishing. Recommendations are to replace the largely unrestricted fishery with a more regulated regime backed by effective enforcement.     

Market access,population density,and socioeconomic development explain diversity and functional group biomass of coral reef fish assemblages

There is overwhelming evidence that many local-scale human activities (e.g. fishing) have a deleterious effect on coral reef fish assemblages. Our understanding of how broad social phenomena (e.g. socioeconomic development) affect the diversity and function of coral reef fish assemblages however, is still poor. Here, we use structural equation models to reveal how human population density, socioeconomic development, and market access affect fishing pressure and coral cover to, in turn, explain the diversity and biomass of key functional groups of reef fish assemblages within Solomon Islands. Fishing pressure is predominantly driven by both market access and local population density, and has a clear negative effect on the diversity and function of coral reef fishes. The strong positive effect of market access on fishing pressure makes clear the importance of understanding social-ecological linkages in the context of increasingly connected societies. This study highlights the need to address broad social phenomena rather than focusing on proximate threats such as fishing pressure, to ensure the continued flow of coral reef goods and services in this time of rapid global social and environmental change.     

Approaches to knowledge sharing and capacity building: The role of local information systems in marine and coastal management

This paper explores how coastal data and information can be mobilised in information systems and applied in coastal management. The concept of an Information System is defined and described, and the potential role of Local Information System (LIS) in integrated coastal management (ICM) is considered. Three examples, from the Severn Estuary, UK the coast of the North West of England and North Wales, and the Fal and Helford estuaries, are used to demonstrate the requirements of a LIS for coastal areas. The role of GIS as part of the solution is considered in detail. The paper demonstrates how ideas from the disciplines of information systems and information science can be practically applied in coastal areas. The findings promote a holistic approach for those involved in the development of technologies and dealing with data and information about coasts and oceans.