A case for a reassessment of the risks of extreme hydrological hazards in the Caribbean

There is an urgent need for the development and implementation of modern statistical methodology for long-term risk assessment of extreme hydrological hazards in the Caribbean. Notwithstanding the inevitable scarcity of data relating to extreme events, recent results and approaches call into question standard methods of estimation of the risks of environmental catastrophes that are currently adopted. Estimation of extreme hazards is often based on the Gumbel model and on crude methods for estimating predictive probabilities. In both cases the result is often a remarkable underestimation of the predicted probabilities for disasters of large magnitude. Simplifications do not stop here: assumptions of data homogeneity and temporal independence are usually made regardless of potential inconsistencies with genuine process behaviour and the fact that results may be sensitive to such mis-specifications. These issues are of particular relevance for the Caribbean, given its exposure to diverse meteorological climate conditions.In this article we present an examination of predictive methodologies for the assessment of long-term risks of hydrological hazards, with particular focus on applications to rainfall and flooding, motivated by three data sets from the Caribbean region. Consideration is given to classical and Bayesian methods of inference for annual maxima and daily peaks-over-threshold models. We also examine situations where data non-homogeneity is compromised by an unknown seasonal structure, and the situation in which the process under examination has a physical upper limit. We highlight the fact that standard Gumbel analyses routinely assign near-zero probability to subsequently observed disasters, and that for San Juan, Puerto Rico, standard 100-year predicted rainfall estimates may be routinely underestimated by a factor of two.     

青藏高原东部全新世冬夏季风变化的高分辨率泥炭记录

在建立了全新世泥炭沉积物高分辨率冬夏季风代用指标时间序列的基础上, 发现青藏高原若尔盖地区全新世冬夏季风的变化具有此消彼长和同时消长两种基本的模式, 冬季风与夏季风在不同时间尺度上两种模式又相互嵌套. 由冬夏季风指标叠加效应合成的气候状况却有与全球同步的规律性, 表现出千年-百年尺度的不稳定性, 6.2 ka的季风突然减弱事件要比8.0 ka的事件更显著, 反映了亚洲季风的区域特点或它本身就是全球气候的一个窗口.     

The effect of organic materials on the mobility and toxicity of metals in contaminated soils

Organic materials such as compost are often proposed as suitable materials for the remediation of contaminated brownfield sites intended for soft end-use. In addition to vitalising the soil, they are also believed to immobilise metals thereby breaking contaminant-receptor pathways and reducing the ecotoxicity of the contaminants. However, some research has demonstrated contradictory effects between composts on metal immobilisation. In the present study, four different composts and a liming product containing organic matter (LimeX70) were tested to examine both their metal retention and toxicity reduction capabilities on three different metal contaminated soils. Leaching tests, a plant growth test with Greek cress (Lepidium sativum), an earthworm (Eisenia fetida) survival and condition test and a bacterial toxicity test using Vibrio fischeri were carried out. The leaching test results showed that spent mushroom compost caused an increase in metal concentration in the leachates, while LimeX70 caused a decrease. The variation in behaviour between different amendments for each soil was high, so a generic conclusion could not be drawn. Toxicity tests showed significant reduction of metal bioavailability and toxicity for Greek cress, earthworms and bacteria. The results also suggest that more research should be undertaken to understand the mechanisms involved in metal complexation using different types of organic matter, in order to optimise the use of organic materials like compost for soil remediation.     

Analysis of the impact of conservation measures on stream flow regime in catchments of the Loess Plateau,China

Catchments in the Loess Plateau have been under the influence of human activities for centuries. In the last four decades, soil conservation measures have accelerated and intensified. These measures were designed to reduce soil erosion, improve agricultural productivity, and enhance environmental quality. It is important to evaluate the effects of these measures on hydrology in order to develop sustainable catchment management plans in the region. This study evaluated changes in stream flow data for four selected catchments in the Loess Plateau following large‐scale soil conservation measures. The non‐parametric Mann–Kendall test was used to identify trends in annual stream flow and the results showed significant downward trends in three of the four catchments. The Pettitt test indicated that a change point occurred in 1978 in these three catchments. Annual precipitation in all the catchments showed no significant trend during the period of record. Comparison of daily flow duration curves for two 20‐year periods (1957–1978) and (1979–2003) showed significant changes in stream flow regime. Reduction in most percentile flows varied between 20 and 45%, and the reduction in low flows was greatest. Overall, the reductions in daily flow were increasing with time, with significant changes occurring in the 1990s. However, it is not clear whether these catchments have seen the full effects of the soil conservation measures, so the results of this study might underestimate the final impact of soil conservation on stream flow regime. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The problem of underpowered rivers

This study has hypothesized that for many rivers the trade-off between flow accumulation and the decrease in slope along channel length means that stream power increases downstream and, moreover, that given the low slope angles in headwater and low-order streams, they would have insufficient stream power to erode let alone transport sediment. The study considered the stream power profile, the particle travel distances and the application of the Hjulström curve based on the velocity profile of nine, large UK catchments. The study showed that:

1. Some rivers never showed a maximum in their longitudinal stream power profile, implying that some rivers never develop a deposition zone before they discharge at the tidal limit.
2. Particle travel distances during a bankfull discharge event showed that for some rivers 91% of the upper main channel would not be cleared of sediment. Furthermore, while some rivers could transport a 2 mm particle their entire length in one bankfull event, for another river it would take 89 such events.
3. The Hjulström curve shows that for three of the study rivers the upper 20 km of the river was not capable of eroding a 2 μm particle.
4. The study has shown that for all rivers studied, erosion is focused downstream and deposition upstream. Many UK rivers have a dead zone where, on time scales of the order of centuries, no erosion or transport occurs and erosion only occurs in the lower courses of the channel where discharge rather than slope dominates – we propose these as underpowered rivers.

© 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd     

An optimal extraction algorithm for imaging photometry

This paper is primarily an investigation of whether the 'optimal extraction' techniques used in CCD spectroscopy can be applied to imaging photometry. It is found that using such techniques provides a gain of around 10 per cent in signal-to-noise ratio over normal aperture photometry. Formally, it is shown to be equivalent to profile fitting, but offers advantages of robust error estimation, freedom from bias introduced by mis-estimating the point spread function, and convenience. In addition some other techniques are presented, which can be applied to profile fitting, aperture photometry and the 'optimal' photometry. Code implementing these algorithms is available at http://www.astro.keele.ac.uk/~timn/.     

A Discussion of IGS Solutions and Their Impact on Geodetic and Geophysical Applications

The International Association of Geodesy officially established the International GPS Service (IGS) on Janaury 1, 1994. Its prime objective is to provide support and a rerefence system for a wide variety of scientific and practical applications involving GPS. To fulfill its role the IGS also generates, in addition to its fundamental products (orbital/staion positions and consistent Earth orientation parameters), additional reference-system products providing the necessary infrastructure, standards, and means of calibrations for timing and various atmospheric applications of GPS. The generation and efficient application of IGS products and their impact on a number of positioning and atmospheric applications, including low earth orbit satellites, is reviewed and discussed. @ 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Interplanetary scintillation observations of interaction regions in the solar wind

Co-rotating interaction regions (CIRs) between fast and slow streams of plasma are a prominent feature of the solar wind. Measurements of interplanetary scintillation (IPS) using the three widely separated antennas of the EISCAT facility have been used to detect the compression regions at the leading edges of interaction regions and to determine the location and velocity of the structure. Observations show that interaction regions have developed as close to the Sun as 25–30 solar radii, a result supported by theoretical modelling which shows that the conditions needed for CIRs to develop exist inside 30 solar radii.     

U-Series Chronology of Lacustrine Deposits in Death Valley, California

Uranium-series dating on a 186-m core (DV93-1) drilled from Badwater Basin in Death Valley, California, and on calcareous tufas from nearby strandlines shows that Lake Manly, the lake that periodically flooded Death Valley during the late Pleistocene, experienced large fluctuations in depth and chemistry over the last 200,000 yr. Death Valley has been occupied by a long-standing deep lake, perennial shallow saline lakes, and a desiccated salt pan similar to the modern valley floor. The average sedimentation rate of about 1 mm/yr for core DV93-1 was punctuated by episodes of more-rapid accumulation of halite. Arid conditions similar to the modern conditions prevailed during the entire Holocene and between 120,000 and 60,000 yr B.P. From 35,000 yr B.P. to the beginning of the Holocene, a perennial saline lake existed, over 70 m at its deepest. A much deeper and longer lasting perennial Lake Manly existed from about 185,000 to 128,000 yr B.P., with water depths reaching about 175 m, if not 330 m. This lake had two significant “dry” excursions of 10²–10³yr duration about 166,000 and 146,000 yr B.P., and it began to shrink to the point of halite precipitation between 128,000 and 120,000 yr B.P. The two perennial lake periods correspond to marine oxygen isotopic stages (OIS) 2 and 6. Based on the shoreline tufa ages, we do not rule out the possible existence 200,000 yr ago of yet a third perennial lake comparable in size to the OIS 6 lake. The²³⁴U/²³⁸U data suggest that U in tufa owes its origin mainly to Ca-rich springs fed by groundwater that emanated along lake shorelines in southern Death Valley, and that an increase of this spring-water input relative to the river-water input apparently occurred during OIS 6.     

Modelling the X-ray cluster dipole and cluster contribution to the soft X-ray background

We investigate the sampling and dipole convergence properties of flux-limited samples of mock X-ray clusters in relation to their underlying 'parent' cluster distribution. To this purpose, we resort to numerical simulations of the cluster distribution and extract samples resembling the main observational features of X-ray selected cluster samples. The flux-limited samples, being quite sparse, underestimate the amplitude of the 'parent' cluster dipole by ≈ 15 per cent on average for Local Group-like observers. However, the general shapes of their dipole amplitude profiles are in relatively good agreement. We also calculate the expected contribution of clusters, selected according to the relevant criteria, to the soft (i.e. 0.1–2.4 keV) extragalactic X-ray background (XRB), using the ESO Key Project X-ray luminosity function, assuming a flat universe with vanishing cosmological constant. We obtain a value of about 10 per cent of the observed XRB flux.