Association of proportions

Simple correlation leads to misleading results when applied to the proportions of materials in mixtures, because of the constraint that the total of the proportions is less than one. A simple mainly graphical procedure to determine whether the proportions in mixtures are associated after allowing for the constraint is presented. No assumptions about the form of the underlying probability distributions are required. The technique is extended to problems where other constraints apply.     

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Expert judgment and climate forecasting: A methodological critique of “climate change to the year 2000”

The National Defense University's study of climate change to the year 2000 was based largely on the judgments of the members of two expert panels. Although the study has been widely distributed and apparently read by policy makers in the U.S. and abroad, the method of eliciting and analyzing expert judgment has not been critically reviewed. This paper uses the literature on judgment and subjective probability to evaluate the expert judgment methods used in the study.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

Normalized 87Sr86Sr by multiple collection and comparison to a standard

A system for precisely determining normalized ${}^{87}\text{Sr}{}^{86}\text{Sr}$ by comparing unknown to standard in a solid-source quadruple-collector mass spectrometer is outlined. This is made possible by a mathematical approximation in the data-reduction process.