Expert judgment and climate forecasting: A methodological critique of “climate change to the year 2000”

The National Defense University's study of climate change to the year 2000 was based largely on the judgments of the members of two expert panels. Although the study has been widely distributed and apparently read by policy makers in the U.S. and abroad, the method of eliciting and analyzing expert judgment has not been critically reviewed. This paper uses the literature on judgment and subjective probability to evaluate the expert judgment methods used in the study.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

Salinity-induced survival strategy of Vibrio cholerae associated with copepods in Cochin backwaters

The occurrence of Vibrio cholerae in water, sediment and copepods was studied over a wide range of salinity using conventional and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) techniques in the Cochin backwaters. V. cholerae occurred either as culturable or non-culturable form in this tropical estuary. During the pre monsoon period when high salinity prevailed (35.5psu) V. cholerae was associated with copepods only in non-culturable form, but with the onset of monsoon when lower salinity prevailed, copepod-associated-V. cholerae reverted back to culturable form. The optimum salinity range for culturability was found to be 15-20psu. This points to the fact that salinity is a major factor that which influences V. cholerae's culturability and its association with copepods in Cochin backwaters.