The Delphi technique and judgmental forecasting

The Delphi technique for judgmental forecasting by expert groups is described and the controversy surrounding its use is summarized. The technique clearly does not eliminate all unwanted psychological effects on group judgment. Furthermore, the design of most Delphi studies makes it impossible to separate the signal from the noise in expert judgment. A methodological standard for evaluating judgmental forecasts is proposed.     

Magma mixing: the Marsco suite,Isle of Skye,Scotland

Magma mixing has been proposed as a major mechanism for the origin of a wide variety of rock suites. In mid-ocean basalts there are few obstacles to mixing because of the similarities in chemical and physical properties of the proposed end-members. However, in calc-alkaline rocks the proposed end-members have disparate properties and these present obstacles to mixing.The Marsco suite is ideal to evaluate the process of magma mixing because it is considered to be a classic example of magma mixing of diverse magma types and because compositionally diverse, coexisting liquids were present throughout the area.The results of this study are that the chemical data for the Marsco suite fit a mixing model remarkably well and that the mixing did not take place at the present level of exposure. The Marsco mixed suite is similar to the experiments of Kouchi and Sunagawa (1982, 1983) in which mixing was produced by forced convection. Based on the Marsco suite, a similar occurrence in Ardnamurchan, and the experimental data, we conclude that mixing was dominated by mechanical mixing and this mechanical mixing was efficient enough to allow diffusional processes to homogenize the liquids.It is postulated that injection of mafic magma into the base of a silicic magma system leads to mixing and mobilization of the system. The mechanical interaction that produces the mixing also leads to disruption of the system. Liquids involved with the mixing process at depth are mobilized and coexist at shallower levels.     

Analysis of groundwater quality using water quality index and conventional graphical methods: the Volta region,Ghana

Conventional graphical and statistical methods were used with water quality indices to characterize the hydrochemistry of groundwater from the northern part of the Volta region of Ghana. The objective was to determine the processes that affect the hydrochemistry and the variation of these processes in space among the three main geological terrains: the Buem formation, Voltaian System and the Togo series that underlie the area, and to determine the suitability of groundwater from the area for drinking purposes. The Q-mode cluster analysis reveals three main water groups. The groups established from the Q-mode HCA appear to indicate different degrees of weathering which could further indicate varying levels of fracturing aquifer hydraulic properties. R-mode HCA and factor analysis (using varimax rotation and Kaiser Criterion) were then applied to determine the significant sources of variation in the hydrochemistry. This study finds that groundwater hydrochemistry in the area is controlled by the weathering of silicate and carbonate minerals, as well as the chemistry of infiltrating precipitation. Mineral activity diagrams for the CaO–Na₂O–Al₂O₃–SiO₂–H₂O and CaO–MgO–Al₂O₃–SiO₂–H₂O systems plotted for the area indicate stability in the smectite field and attribute hydrochemistry to the weathering of silicate minerals. Silicate mineral weathering and the effects of precipitation appear to be pervasive among all the three main geological terrains, whereas carbonate weathering is localized among the Voltaian aquifers. Cation exchange does not appear to play a significant role in the hydrochemistry but mild Water quality indices (WQI) were calculated for the samples using the concentrations of Na⁺, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, Cl⁻, NO₃ ⁻, F⁻, and EC at the various sample locations. The WQI values indicate that groundwater from the study area is of excellent quality for drinking purposes. WQI values from groundwater samples are averagely higher than samples taken from surface water sources in the area. This implies that geology has had an impact on the WQI of groundwater in the area.     

Analysis of the surface temperature and wind forecast errors of the NCAR-AirDat operational CONUS 4-km WRF forecasting system

Investigating the characteristics of model-forecast errors using various statistical and object-oriented methods is necessary for providing useful guidance to end-users and model developers as well. To this end, the random and systematic errors (i.e., biases) of the 2-m temperature and 10-m wind predictions of the NCAR-AirDat weather research and forecasting (WRF)-based real-time four-dimensional data assimilation (RTFDDA) and forecasting system are analyzed. This system has been running operationally over a contiguous United States (CONUS) domain at a 4-km grid spacing with four forecast cycles daily from June 2009 to September 2010. In the result an exceptionally useful forecast dataset was generated and used for studying the error properties of the model forecasts, in terms of both a longer time period and a broader coverage of geographic regions than previously studied. Spatiotemporal characteristics of the errors are investigated based on the 24-h forecasts between June 2009 and April 2010, and the 72-h forecasts between May and September 2010. It was found that the biases of both wind and temperature forecasts vary greatly seasonally and diurnally, with dependency on the forecast length, station elevation, geographical location, and meteorological conditions. The temperature showed systematic cold biases during the daytime at all station elevations and warm biases during the nighttime above 1,000 m above sea level (ASL), while below 600 m ASL cold biases occurred during the nighttime. The forecasts of surface wind speed exhibited strong positive biases during the nighttime, while the negative biases were observed in the spring and summer afternoons. The surface wind speed was mostly over-predicted except for the stations located between 1,000 and 2,100 m ASL, for which negative biases were identified for most forecast cycles. The highest wind-speed errors were found over the high terrain and near sea-level stations. The wind-direction errors were relatively large at the high-terrain elevation in the Rocky and Appalachian mountain ranges and the western coastal areas and the error structure exhibited notable diurnal variability.     

Quality control algorithms for rainfall measurements

One of the basic requirements for a scientific use of rain data from raingauges, ground and space radars is data quality control. Rain data could be used more intensively in many fields of activity (meteorology, hydrology, etc.), if the achievable data quality could be improved. This depends on the available data quality delivered by the measuring devices and the data quality enhancement procedures. To get an overview of the existing algorithms a literature review and literature pool have been produced. The diverse algorithms have been evaluated to meet VOLTAIRE objectives and sorted in different groups. To test the chosen algorithms an algorithm pool has been established, where the software is collected. A large part of this work presented here is implemented in the scope of the EU-project VOLTAIRE (Validation of multisensors precipitation fields and numerical modeling in Mediterranean test sites).     

Column Amounts of ClONO2, HCl, HNO3, and HF from Ground-Based FTIR Measurements Made Near Kiruna, Sweden, in Late Winter 1994

During SESAME phase I ground-based FTIR measurements were performed atEsrange near Kiruna, Sweden, from 28 January to 26 March 1994. Zenith columnamounts of ClONO₂, HCl, HF, HNO₃,O₃, N₂O, CH₄, and CFC-12 werederived from solar absorption spectra. Time series of ClONO₂and HCl indicate a chlorine activation at the end of January and around 1March. On 1 March a very low amount of HCl of 2.09times; 10¹⁵molec. cm^-2 was detected, probably caused by a second chlorineactivation phase starting from an already decreased amount of HCl. The ratioof column amounts of HCl to ClONO₂ decreased inside the vortexfrom about 1 in January to 0.4 in late March compared to values of about 2outside the vortex. Although the Arctic stratosphere was rather warm in winter1993/94 and PSCs occurred seldom, chlorine partitioning into its reservoirspecies HCl and ClONO₂ changed during that winter andClONO₂ is the major chlorine reservoir at the end of thewinter as in cold winters like 1991/92 and 1994/95.     

Distribution of cadmium, chromium, copper, lead and zinc in marine sediments in Hong Kong waters

Partitioning of heavy metals (Cd, Cr, Cu, Pb, Zn) in marine sediments collected from various sites in Hong Kong waters were determined using sequential extraction method. Sediments from Kellette Bank, located in Victoria Harbour, had higher metal concentrations especially Cu and Zn than most other sites. Slightly over 20% of total Cu and Cr existed as readily available forms in Peng Chau and Kellette Bank. At most sampling sites, over 15% of the Cu existed as the exchangeable form indicating that Cu could be readily released into the aqueous phase from sediments. A significantly higher percentage of Pb and Zn was associated with the three non-residual fractions. Hence, there is a greater environmental concern for remobilization of Pb and Zn compared with Cr. The high amount of residual Cd (>50%) and the relatively lower Cd content indicate that little environmental concern is warranted for the remobilization of Cd. Distribution of metals in sediments collected from different depth at Kellette Bank shows that metal concentrations decreased with profile depth. The levels of Pb and Zn associated with the two readily available fractions increased sharply in the surface sediment. These metals represented the pollutants, which were introduced into the area in the mid-eighties through early nineties as a result of rapid economic and industrial development in the territory. As significant portions of these metals were bound to the readily available phases in the surface sediments, metal remobilization could be a concern. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Combining ordination techniques and geostatistics to determine the patterns of diatom distributions at Lake Lama, Central Siberia

The patterns of spatial variation of diatom assemblages from surface sediments in Lake Lama were quantified using a combined approach of ordination and geostatistics. The aims were (i) to estimate the amount of variation between diatom assemblages within the lake, (ii) to model the spatial variability of the diatom assemblages and their diversity, and (iii) to map the diatom distributions in the lake. A correspondence analysis (CA) separated the diatom assemblages into a planktonic and a periphytic group. Rheophilic taxa were found within the periphytic group. Variogram analysis showed that only the sample scores of the first CA axis and the Shannon diversity index were spatially structured. The range of spatial correlation was estimated to be 55 km for both variables. The diversity and, to a lesser extent, the sample scores had considerable small-scale variability of about 20 and 3%, respectively. Estimates of the first component of the CA and the Shannon index were derived using block-kriging. The maps of the estimates provided a basis for partitioning Lake Lama according to the spatial structures into an eastern and a western basin, a north–south connection between the basins, and a north–south directed tip at the far eastern end. It was shown that variation in diatom assemblages is mainly spatially structured at the catchment scale and that there is a considerable amount of variation at smaller scales. According to the modeled spatial distribution, the assemblages are most likely affected by the lake size, morphology, and the water and nutrient input introduced by rivers. This has to be taken into account when paleolimnological interpretations are drawn from records of complex lake systems like Lake Lama.     

Global and continental water balance in a GCM

Surface hydrology is recognised as an important component of general circulation climate models. The global and regional climates simulated by such models are demonstrably sensitive to the parameterization of terrestrial hydrologic processes. There exists, therefore, a clear requirement to evaluate different parameterization approaches in terms of the representation of the terrestrial phase of the hydrologic cycle. One potential means of meeting this requirement is by using available continental water-balance summaries. In this study three versions of a GCM, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model Version l (CCM1), differing mainly in spatial resolution and the representation of the surface hydrology, are compared against existing water-balance studies. Additional streamflow data are incorporated as a means of further validating both the water-balance approach and the GCM surface hydrologic parameterization in capturing the gross features of continental-scale hydrology.     

Flow depletion in a small stream caused by ground water abstraction from wells

The interaction between a gaining stream and a water-table aquifer is studied at an outwash plain. The aquifer is hydraulically well connected to the stream. Pumping tests were carried out in 1997 and 1998 in two wells 60 m from the stream, screening different depths of the aquifer. Drawdown was measured on both sides of the stream. Hydraulic head, drawdown, and stream depletion data were analyzed using numerical flow models. Similar models were fitted to each of two different data sets: Model A was fitted to steady-state hydraulic head and streamflow gain data not influenced by pumping; and model B was fitted to drawdown data measured during the 1998 pumping test. Each calibrated model closely fits its calibration data; however, predictions were biased if model A was used to predict the calibration data of model B, and vice versa. To further test the models, they were used to predict streamflow depletion during the two pumping tests as well as the drawdown during the 1997 test. Neither of these data were used for calibration. Model A predicted the measured depletions fairly accurately during both tests, whereas the predicted drawdowns in 1997 were significantly larger than actually measured. Contrary to this, the 1997 drawdowns predicted by model B were nearly unbiased; the predicted depletions deviate significantly from the measured depletions in 1997, but they compare well with the observations in 1998. Thus, although field work and analyses were extensive and done carefully to develop a ground water flow model that could predict both drawdown and streamflow depletion, the model predictions are biased. Analyses indicate that the deviations between model and data may be because of error in the models' representations of either the release of water from storage or of the hydrology in the riparian zone.