Risk-based flood zoning employing expected annual damages: the Chenab River case study

Flooding proves to be the most devastating and annihilating natural hazard in Pakistan. Existing flood management strategies are riveted primarily to the structural measures that contribute limited loss reduction capability at the national level. Non-structural measures are not part of regular practices, as the adopted design standards, which are probabilistic in nature, are unable to assess their feasibilities. An improved risk-based assessment using expected annual damages (EAD) is introduced in this article for the evaluation of combined impacts. EAD treat the probabilistic nature of losses and provide an extended visualization of risk distributions in the form of damage curves and expected annual damages distribution maps. The Chenab River floodplain was selected to study the coalesced response of embankments and flood zoning, preliminary in economic terms. In this regard, the impacts of all likely floods are considered instead of the traditional focus on a single design flood. Damage curves and maps are compiled using estimated losses and probabilities of all floods. Flood zoning for agricultural land is performed. The results support choosing a multidirectional conjunctive approach that considers multiple measures to reduce flood losses. These results can be used as a vital input for the decision-making process.     

Effect of Fe2+ amendment on photodegradation kinetics of imidacloprid in moist soil

The present study deals with the effect of Fe²⁺ on degradation kinetics of imidacloprid in moist soil under UV system. The moist soil samples were spiked with imidacloprid and irradiated in specially designed UV-photoreactor. The analysis of imidacloprid was carried out by using HPLC–DAD system. UV irradiation caused about ten fold increase in photodegradation rate of the pesticide. Amendment of soil with Fe²⁺ at concentrations of 30 mg/kg led to a further increase in the rate of photodegradation, i.e., a 98 % degradation of imidacloprid was observed in the presence of iron after 32 days of irradiation. Moreover, the half-life of imidacloprid in Fe²⁺ -amended soil was observed to be reduced to 7 days that in the absence of Fe²⁺ was recorded to be 21 days. Iron was also observed to affect the half-life of imidacloprid in dark. When compared with unsterilized Fe²⁺-amended batch treatments, the t _1/2 in sterilized Fe²⁺-amended batch treatments increased from 58 to 96 days. Imidacloprid-urea was detected by HPLC as the only stable photodegradation byproduct of imidacloprid in the soil.     

Photo-induced degradation of emamectin benzoate: effect of iron amendments and solvent system

Photodegradation is the major dissipation pathway for emamectin benzoate (EB) in water. Therefore, the photolysis of EB was studied in distilled water (DW) and methanol under different irradiation conditions such as natural sunlight, UV tube, and artificially stimulated light (mercury lamp 125 W). The results of the study showed that EB degrades rapidly in DW than in methanol as evidenced by a photodegradation efficiency of about 75 % achieved in DW, after 24 h of irradiation with UV light, while in methanol, it was only 59.3 %. The addition of iron to EB solution in DW further enhanced its photodegradation. The rate of photodegradation of EB was recorded to be increased from 5.5 × 10^?2 to 1.0 × 10^?1 k/h after amendment with iron. The order for the rate of photodegradation of EB was DW + Fe > DW > methanol, with their respective t _1/2 values of 6.5, 12.6, and 18.7 h. Fe amendment was also found to enhance the degradation efficiency of EB even in the absence of any light (dark).     

Seasonal and Interannual Sea Surface Temperature Variability in the Coastal Cities of Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal

The sea surface temperature (SST) variations play a veryimportant role in the genesis and maintenance of meteorological and oceanographic processessuch as monsoon depressions and subsequent floods, large-scale sea level fluctuationsand genesis of tropical cyclones. Many low lying coastal regions of South Asia are adjacentto river deltas and have large population. The dense population, poor economy and severalother socio-economic factors make these areas most vulnerable to the impact of climate change.Variability of sea surface temperature (SST) is importantas the duration and intensity of SST provide the basis for studies related to climatic changescenario. In this study an attempt has been made to estimate the recent SST trends in the coastalwaters of some cities, which lie on the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. The annual andinterannual variability has also been studied. The SST variations have then been linkedwith the El Nino and La Nina events.The NOAA-NASA Pathfinder Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) SST fields from 1985-1998, created in the Jet Propulsion Laboratory(JPL), USA are used in this study. Here the quality of data is an important factor toobtain reliable estimates of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) trends and other related parameters.However, this is not possible with the conventional type data, due to low quality as wellas sparse data in the region. Though the satellite based SST climatologies have shorterobservation lengths, they can provide reliable estimates of recent SST variability overa large oceanic areas with sparse or no data.Increasing trend of SST is observed throughout all theseasons in the northern Arabian Sea extending from Oman to Karachi and Mumbai and furthersouth to Salalah and Colombo. However, in coastal islands stations further south ofIndia such as at Colombo the increment is not significant. Though the increasing trend in SSTduring winter is not significant, nevertheless it shows the increasing influence of coldspells on this Island. An interesting situation has been observed in the Bay of Bengal. On anaverage, increasing trends in the annual SST were observed in Visakhaputnam. But at thestations located in the northeastern part of Bay of Bengal, namely Hiron Point and Cox'sBazar reverse conditions are observed. In the Southern Bay of Bengal variations in SST isnot significant which reflects in the SST analysis of Chennai and Port Blair stations. Locationof these stations at lower latitudes (near by equator) probably is the reason for this insignificantchange. It has been found that the interannual mode of SST variations dominate the linear SSTtrends which is characterized by the El Nino Southern Oscillations (ENSO) scale cycle.     

Emission quantification of refrigerant CFCs,HCFCs and HFCs in megacity Lahore (Pakistan) and contributed ODPs and GWPs

An integrated assessment of emissions of some important refrigerant ozone depleting substances (ODSs) (CFC-11, CFC-12, HCFC-141b and HFC-134a) and their contributed ozone depletion potentials (ODPs) and global warming potentials (GWPs) have been made in the megacity Lahore (Pakistan) for the period from 2005 to 2013. During the production of 6.488 million refrigerator units, the cumulative estimated emissions of CFC-11, CFC-12, HCFC-141b and HFC-134a were 129.7, 6.8, 1257 and 104 mega grams (1 Mg = 10⁶ grams). The estimated GWP (CO₂-eq) and ODP (CFC 11-eq) associated with production phase emissions of these four gases were 616.07, 73.52, 910.96, and 87.36 kilotonnes, and 129.7, 6.8, 139.4, and 0 tonnes, respectively. ODP of HFC-134a is considered to be zero. In addition, the repair and maintenance of 81.2 thousand units resulted in 10.8 Mg emissions of CFC-12 with 10.8 tonnes ODP(CFC 11-eq) and 117,802 tonnes GWP (CO₂-eq) that were higher than the HFC-134a emissions recorded at 4.3 Mg causing 4563 tonnes GWP(CO₂-eq). A decrease in ODP (CFC 11-eq) and GWP (CO₂-eq) at the rate of ?8.3% and ?8.2% per year is observed to be contributed by all the selected ODSs during the study period.     

Satellite and ground-based remote sensing of aerosols during intense haze event of October 2013 over lahore,Pakistan

Due to increase in population and economic development, the mega-cities are facing increased haze events which are causing important effects on the regional environment and climate. In order to understand these effects, we require an in-depth knowledge of optical and physical properties of aerosols in intense haze conditions. In this paper an effort has been made to analyze the microphysical and optical properties of aerosols during intense haze event over mega-city of Lahore by using remote sensing data obtained from satellites (Terra/Aqua Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO)) and ground based instrument (AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET)) during 6-14 October 2013. The instantaneous highest value of Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) is observed to be 3.70 on 9 October 2013 followed by 3.12 on 8 October 2013. The primary cause of such high values is large scale crop residue burning and urban-industrial emissions in the study region. AERONET observations show daily mean AOD of 2.36 which is eight times higher than the observed values on normal day. The observed fine mode volume concentration is more than 1.5 times greater than the coarse mode volume concentration on the high aerosol burden day. We also find high values (~0.95) of Single Scattering Albedo (SSA) on 9 October 2013. Scatter-plot between AOD (500 nm) and Angstrom exponent (440-870 nm) reveals that biomass burning/urban-industrial aerosols are the dominant aerosol type on the heavy aerosol loading day over Lahore. MODIS fire activity image suggests that the areas in the southeast of Lahore across the border with India are dominated by biomass burning activities. A Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model backward trajectory showed that the winds at 1000 m above the ground are responsible for transport from southeast region of biomass burning to Lahore. CALIPSO derived sub-types of aerosols with vertical profile taken on 10 October 2013 segregates the wide spread aerosol burden as smoke, polluted continental and dust aerosols.     

A new method of determining the inclination angle in interacting binaries

We describe a method of determining the system parameters in non-eclipsing interacting binaries. We find that the extent to which an observer sees the shape of the Roche lobe of the secondary star governs the amount of distortion of the absorption-line profiles. The width and degree of asymmetry of the phase-resolved absorption-line profiles show a characteristic shape, which depends primarily on the binary inclination and gravity darkening exponent. We show that, in principle, by obtaining high spectral and time resolution spectra of quiescent cataclysmic variables or low-mass X-ray binaries in which the mass-losing star is visible, fitting the shape of absorption-line profiles will allow one to determine not only the mass function of the binary, but also the binary inclination and hence the mass of the binary components.     

Improving the level of seismic hazard parameters in Saudi Arabia using earthquake location

Saudi Arabia is characterized as largely aseismic; however, the tectonic plate boundaries that surround it are very active. To improve characterization of seismicity and ground motion hazard, the Saudi Arabian Digital Seismic Network (SANDSN) was installed in 1998 and continues to be operated by the Saudi Geological Survey (SGS) and King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology (KACST). This article describes research performed to improve seismic hazard parameters using earthquake location and magnitude calibration of the high-quality SANDSN data. The SANDSN consists of 38 seismic stations, 27 broadband, and 11 short period. All data are telemetered in real time to a central facility at KACST in Riyadh. The SANDSN stations show low background noise levels and have good signal detection capabilities; however, some stations show cultural noise at frequencies above 1.0 Hz. We assessed the SANDSN event location capabilities by comparing KACST locations with well-determined locations derived from ground truth or global observations. While a clear location bias exists when using the global average iasp91 earth model, the locations can be improved by using regional models optimized for different tectonic source regions. The article presents detailed analysis of some events and Dead Sea explosions where we found gross errors in estimated locations. New velocity models we calculated that should improve estimated locations of regional events in three specific regions include (1) Gulf of Aqabah—Dead Sea region, (2) Arabian Shield, and (3) Arabian Platform. Recently, these models were applied to the SANDSN to improve local and teleseismic event locations and to develop an accurate magnitude scale for Saudi Arabia. The Zagros Thrust presents the most seismic hazard to eastern Saudi Arabia because of the frequent occurrence of earthquakes. Although these events are 200 km or further from the Arabian coast, wave propagation through sedimentary structure of the Gulf causes long-duration ground motions for periods between 3 and 10 s. Such ground motions could excite response in large engineered structures (e.g., tall buildings and long bridges) such as was experienced after the November 22, 2005 Qeshm Island earthquake off the southern coast of Iran.