Frictional discharge at fault asperities: Origin of fractal seismo-electromagnetic radiation

To investigate the relation between the rock friction and the fractal electromagnetic radiation before the main-shock of earthquakes, we conducted a friction experiment simulating the motion of an asperity on a fault plane, and observed photon emissions due to electric discharge by dielectric breakdown of ambient gases from friction contacts between rock minerals. This indicates that frictional discharges (plasma generations) could occur locally at microscopic asperities on fault surfaces. From concepts on the fractal size-distribution and temporal evolution of fault asperities, the frictional discharge occurring at asperities on the fault plane can be one of origins of the fractal electromagnetic radiation (Benioff electromagnetic radiation) prior to earthquakes.     

Formation of Distinct Granitic Magma Batches by Partial Melting of Hybrid Lower Crust in the Izu Arc Collision Zone, Central Japan

The Miocene Kofu Granitic Complex (KGC) occurs in the Izu CollisionZone where the Izu–Bonin–Mariana (IBM) arc has beencolliding with the Honshu arc since the middle Miocene. TheKGC includes rocks ranging in compositions from biotite-bearinggranite (the Shosenkyo and Mizugaki plutons), and hornblende–biotite-bearinggranodiorite, tonalite, quartz-diorite, and granite (the Shiodaira,Sanpo, Hirose and Sasago plutons), to hornblende-bearing tonaliteand trondhjemite (the Ashigawa–Tonogi pluton), indicatingthat it was constructed from multiple intrusions of magma withdifferent bulk chemistry. The Sr-isotopic compositions correctedto sensitive high-resolution ion microprobe (SHRIMP) zirconages (SrI) suggest that the primary magmas of each pluton wereformed by anatexis of mixed lower crustal sources involvingboth juvenile basalt of the IBM arc and Shimanto sedimentaryrocks of the Honshu arc. After the primary magmas had formed,the individual plutons evolved by crystal fractionation processeswithout significant crustal assimilation or additional mantlecontribution. SHRIMP zircon U–Pb ages in the KGC rangefrom 16·8 to 10·6 Ma and overlap the resumptionof magmatic activity in the IBM and Honshu arcs at c. 17 Maand the onset of IBM arc–Honshu arc collision at c. 15Ma. The age of the granite plutons is closely related to theepisodic activity of arc magmatism and distinct granitic magmabatches could be formed by lower crustal anatexis induced byintrusion of underplated mantle-derived arc magmas. Based onpressures determined with the Al-in-hornblende geobarometer,the KGC magmas intruded into the middle crust. Thus, the KGCcould represent an example of the middle-crust layer indicatedthroughout the IBM arc by 6·0–6·5 km/s seismicvelocities. This granitic middle-crust layer acted buoyantlyduring the IBM arc–Honshu arc collision, leading to accretionof buoyant IBM arc middle crust to the Honshu arc. KEY WORDS: arc–arc collision; crustal anatexis; granite; Izu–Bonin–Mariana (IBM) arc; Izu Collision Zone     

Geostatistical techniques for incorporating spatial correlation into land use change models

Land use modeling requires large amounts of data that are typically spatially correlated. This study applies two geostatistical techniques to account for spatial correlation in residential land use change modeling. In the first approach, we combined generalized linear model (GLM) with indicator kriging to estimate the posterior probability of residential development. In the second approach, generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) was used to simultaneously model spatial correlation and regression fixed effects. Spatial agreement between actual and modeled land use change was higher for the GLM incorporating indicator kriging. The GLMM produced more reliable estimates and could be more useful in analyzing the effects of driving factors of land use change for land use planning.     

Effect of the development of notches and tension cracks on instability of limestone coastal cliffs in the Ryukyus, Japan

Notches cut by waves are currently developing at the base of vertical coastal limestone cliffs in Okinawa, Japan. The cliff height varies from 3.0–22.1 m, and the maximum notch depth is 8.8 m. Many rectangular or cubic blocks, which appear to have originated from cliff failures, are found on platforms in front of the cliffs. On the flat top surface of the cliff, tension cracks often run parallel to the cliff face. The vertical face of the cliffs displays small undulations but no sliding striation, suggesting that cliff failures have been caused by toppling rather than by shearing or sliding. We use slope stability analysis to determine the critical condition for toppling failure. Physical and mechanical properties of the cliff material were first obtained from laboratory tests. The results indicate that the strength of limestone shows a scale effect, such that the strength decreases with increasing size of the test specimens. Based on this result, we estimated the strength of a rock mass corresponding to the size of the coastal cliff. Cliff stability was then analyzed using a cantilever beam model. Comparison of the stability analysis and the dimension of fallen blocks indicates that toppling failure is strongly associated with the development of notches and tension cracks.     

Multi-Wavelength Observation of the 3n/x3.3 Flare of 28 November 1998

The 3N/X3.3 flare of 28 November 1998 was observed in multiple wavelength simultaneously. The available data include H images, spectra in Hei 1083 nm and Caii 854.2 nm from Purple Mountain Observatory (PMO), soft X-ray (SXR) and hard X-ray (HXR) images and flux from Yohkoh. Morphological relationship investigation and spectral analysis of these data show: (1) The sudden brightening at loop top above the active region and the steep increase of SXR flux before flare onset suggest that the corona there had already been heated to some extent in the preflare phase. (2) The scales of the Caii 854.2 nm emission areas are very similar to those of the H line, but the emission profiles look like those of the Caii K line. Most of the Hei 1083 nm emissions exist in the bright H kernels and can last to the decay phase. (3) Flare spectra show that line shift and asymmetry are very common in this flare not only in the impulsive phase but also in the decay phase. The difference in the line shifts or asymmetry between Caii 854.2 nm and Hei 1083 nm, as well as the difference between the line center and wings of Caii 854.2 nm imply the existence of a velocity gradient in the line-of-sight direction. (4) Post-flare loops with very deep absorption (70%) and very-high-velocity red shifts (30–90 km s^–1) were observed in Hei 1083 nm during the decay phase. However, only a slight dip can be found in the Caii 854.2 nm profile.     

Comparison of the lethal effect of CO2 and acidification on red sea bream (Pagrus major) during the early developmental stages

To compare the acute toxicity of CO(2)- and HCl-acidified seawater, eggs and larvae of a marine fish, Pagrus major, were exposed to seawater equilibrated with CO(2)-enriched gas mixtures (CO(2)=5% or 10%, O(2)=20.95% balanced with N(2)) or seawater acidified with 1 N HCl at two pH levels (pH 6.2 (=5% CO(2)) and 5.9 (=10% CO(2))) for 6 h (eggs) or 24 h (larvae). Mortalities of eggs were 85.8% (CO(2)) and 3.6% (HCl) at pH 6.2, and 97.4% (CO(2)) and 0.9% (HCl) at pH 5.9, while those of larvae were 61.2% (CO(2)) and 1.6% (HCl) at pH 6.2, and 100% (CO(2)) and 5.0% (HCl) at pH 5.9. Thus, previous research on the effects of acidified seawater on marine organisms, as a substitute for CO(2), has largely underestimated the toxic effects of CO(2).     

Decision-theoretic sensitivity analysis for reservoir development under uncertainty using multilevel quasi-Monte Carlo methods

At various stages of petroleum reservoir development, we encounter a large degree of geological uncertainty under which a rational decision has to be made. In order to identify which parameter or group of parameters significantly affects the output of a decision model, we investigate decision-theoretic sensitivity analysis and its computational issues in this paper. In particular, we employ the so-called expected value of partial perfect information (EVPPI) as a sensitivity index and apply multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods to efficient estimation of EVPPI. In a recent paper by Giles and Goda, an antithetic MLMC estimator for EVPPI is proposed and its variance analysis is conducted under some assumptions on a decision model. In this paper, for an improvement on the performance of the MLMC estimator, we incorporate randomized quasi-Monte Carlo methods within the inner sampling, which results in an multilevel quasi-Monte Carlo (MLQMC) estimator. We apply both the antithetic MLMC and MLQMC estimators to a simple waterflooding decision problem under uncertainty on absolute permeability and relative permeability curves. Through numerical experiments, we compare the performances of the MLMC and MLQMC estimators and confirm a significant advantage of the MLQMC estimator.     

Petrology and shock history of the first depleted-like poikilitic shergottite Asuka 12325

Asuka (A) 12325 is the first poikilitic shergottite having a depleted pattern in light rare earth elements (REE). Compared with known poikilitic shergottites, A 12325 has smaller but more abundant pyroxene oikocrysts with remarkable Fe-rich pigeonite rims, indicating that A 12325 cooled relatively faster at a shallower part of the crust. The redox condition (logfO₂ = IW + 0.6-IW + 1.7) and Fe-rich chemical compositions of each mineral in A 12325 are close to enriched shergottites. The intermediate shergottites could not form by a simple mixing between parent magmas of A 12325 and enriched shergottites. Although A 12325 contains various high-pressure minerals such as majorite and ringwoodite, plagioclase is only partly maskelynitized. Therefore, the maximum shock pressure may be within 17–22 GPa. Thermal conduction and ringwoodite growth calculation around a shock vein revealed that the shock dwell time of A 12325 is at least 40 ms. The weaker shock pressure and longer shock dwell time in A 12325 may be attained by an impact event similar to those of nakhlites and Northwest Africa (NWA) 8159. Such a weak shock ejection event may be as common on Mars as a severe shock event recorded in shergottites. Alteration of sulfide observed in A 12325 may imply the presence of magmatic fluid in its reservoir on Mars. A 12325 expands a chemical variety of Martian rocks and has a unique shock history among poikilitic shergottites while A 12325 also implies that poikilitic shergottites are common rocks on Mars regardless of their sources.     

Vertical heat transfer based on direct microstructure measurements in the ice-free Pacific-side Arctic Ocean: the role and impact of the Pacific water intrusion

This study quantifies diapycnal mixing and vertical heat transfer in the Pacific side of the Arctic Ocean, where sea-ice cover has disappeared between July and September in the last few decades. We conducted microstructure measurements in the open water region around the Canada Basin from late summer to fall in 2009 and 2010 using R/V Mirai. In the study domain, the dissipation rate of turbulent kinetic energy, ε, is typically as low level as O(10^?10) W kg^?1, resulting in vertical heat diffusivity of O(10^?7) m² s^?1, which is close to the molecular diffusivity of heat, suggesting comparatively little predominance of mechanical turbulent mixing. An exception is the case at the Barrow Canyon, where the strong baroclinic throughflow generates substantial vertical mixing, producing ε > O(10^?7) W kg^?1, because of the shear flow instability. Meanwhile, in the confluence region, where the warm/salty Pacific water and the cold/fresh Arctic basin water encounter, the micro-temperature profiles revealed a localized enhancement in vertical diffusivity of heat, reaching O(10^?5) m² s^?1 or greater. In this region, an intrusion of warm Pacific water creates a horizontally interleaved structure, where the double-diffusive mixing facilitates vertical heat transfer between the intruding Pacific water and the surrounding basin waters.     

FDM Simulation of Seismic Waves, Ocean Acoustic Waves, and Tsunamis Based on Tsunami-Coupled Equations of Motion

We have developed a new, unified modeling technique for the total simulation of seismic waves, ocean acoustic waves, and tsunamis resulting from earthquakes, based on a finite difference method simulation of the 3D equations of motion. Using the equilibrium between the pressure gradient and gravity in these equations, tsunami propagation is naturally incorporated in the simulation based on the equations of motion. The performance of the parallel computation for the newly developed tsunami-coupled equations using a domain partitioning procedure shows a high efficiency coefficient with a large number of CPU cores. The simulation results show how the near-field term associated with seismic waves produced by shallow earthquakes leads to a permanent coseismic deformation of the ground surface, which gives rise to the initial tsunami on the sea surface. Propagation of the tsunami along the sea surface as a gravity wave, and ocean acoustic waves in seawater with high-frequency multiple P-wave reflections between the free surface and sea bottom, are also clearly demonstrated by the present simulations. We find a good agreement in the tsunami waveform between our results and those obtained by other simulations based on an analytical model and the Navier–Stokes equations, demonstrating the effectiveness of the tsunami-coupling simulation model. Based on this simulation, we show that the ratio of the amplitude of ocean acoustic waves to the height of the tsunami, both of which are produced by the earthquake, strongly depends on the rise time of the earthquake rupture. This ratio can be used to obtain a more detailed understanding of the source rupture processes of subduction zone earthquakes, and for implementing an improved tsunami alert system for slow tsunami earthquakes.