Model simulations of carbon sequestration in the northwest Pacific by patch fertilization

Iron fertilization of nutrient-rich surface waters of the ocean is one possible way to help slow the rising levels of atmospheric CO₂ by sequestering it in the oceans via biological carbon export. Here, I use an ocean general circulation model to simulate a patch of nutrient depletion in the subpolar northwest Pacific under various scenarios. Model results confirm that surface fertilization is an inefficient way to sequester carbon from the atmosphere (Gnanadesikan et al., 2003), since only about 20% of the exported carbon comes initially from the atmosphere. Fertilization reduces future production and thus CO₂ uptake by utilizing nutrients that would otherwise be available later. Effectively, this can be considered as leakage when compared to a control run. This “effective” leakage and the actual leakage of sequestered CO₂ cause a significant, rapid decrease in carbon retention (only 30–45% retained after 10 years and less than 20% after 50 years). This contrasts markedly with the almost 100% retention efficiency for the same duration using the same model, when carbon is disposed directly into the northwest Pacific (Matsumoto and Mignone, 2005). As a consequence, the economic effectiveness of patch fertilization is poor in two limiting cases of the future price path of carbon. Sequestered carbon in patch fertilization is lost to the atmosphere at increasingly remote places as time passes, which would make monitoring exceedingly difficult. If all organic carbon from one-time fertilization reached the ocean bottom and remineralized there, acidification would be about −0.05 pH unit with O₂ depletion about −20 μmol kg⁻¹. These anomalies are probably too small to seriously threaten deep sea biota, but they are underestimated in the model because of its large grid size. The results from this study offer little to advocate purposeful surface fertilization as a serious means to address the anthropogenic carbon problem.     

Evolution of Mount Fuji,Japan: Inference from drilling into the subaerial oldest volcano,pre‐Komitake

A buried, old volcanic body (pre‐Komitake Volcano) was discovered during drilling into the northeastern flank of Mount Fuji. The pre‐Komitake Volcano is characterized by hornblende‐bearing andesite and dacite, in contrast to the porphyritic basaltic rocks of Komitake Volcano and to the olivine‐bearing basaltic rocks of Fuji Volcano. K‐Ar age determinations and geological analysis of drilling cores suggest that the pre‐Komitake Volcano began with effusion of basaltic lava flows around 260 ka and ended with explosive eruptions of basaltic andesite and dacite magma around 160 ka. After deposition of a thin soil layer on the pre‐Komitake volcanic rocks, successive effusions of lava flows occurred at Komitake Volcano until 100 ka. Explosive eruptions of Fuji Volcano followed shortly after the activity of Komitake. The long‐term eruption rate of about 3 km³/ka or more for Fuji Volcano is much higher than that estimated for pre‐Komitake and Komitake. The chemical variation within Fuji Volcano, represented by an increase in incompatible elements at nearly constant SiO₂, differs from that within pre‐Komitake and other volcanoes in the northern Izu‐Bonin arc, where incompatible elements increase with increasing SiO₂. These changes in the volcanism in Mount Fuji may have occurred due to a change in regional tectonics around 150 ka, although this remains unproven.     

Gelifluction within a solifluction lobe in the Kärkevagge valley, Swedish Lapland

Soil displacement, soil temperature, depths of thaw plane and groundwater level were continuously monitored during the period from July 1999 to June 2000 within a solifluction lobe in the Kärkevagge valley, northern Sweden. The strain–probe method was used to measure soil displacement, and we found significant soil displacements in the thawing period 2000. These displacements were the result of gelifluction. The ice content profile showed that gelifluction occurred at the same time as the thaw plane reached the layers with high ice content at shallow soil depths (0–6 and 16–25 cm deep). In contrast, gelifluction did not occur when the thaw plane reached the layers with high ice content at greater depth (46–49 cm deep). These observations indicate that thawing of ice lenses in the near–surface layer triggers gelifluction.     

Lunar gravity field determination using SELENE same-beam differential VLBI tracking data

A lunar gravity field model up to degree and order 100 in spherical harmonics, named SGM100i, has been determined from SELENE and historical tracking data, with an emphasis on using same-beam S-band differential VLBI data obtained in the SELENE mission between January 2008 and February 2009. Orbit consistency throughout the entire mission period of SELENE as determined from orbit overlaps for the two sub-satellites of SELENE involved in the VLBI tracking improved consistently from several hundreds of metres to several tens of metres by including differential VLBI data. Through orbits that are better determined, the gravity field model is also improved by including these data. Orbit determination performance for the new model shows improvements over earlier 100th degree and order models, especially for edge-on orbits over the deep far side. Lunar Prospector orbit determination shows an improvement of orbit consistency from 1-day predictions for 2-day arcs of 6 m in a total sense, with most improvement in the along and cross-track directions. Data fit for the types and satellites involved is also improved. Formal errors for the lower degrees are smaller, and the new model also shows increased correlations with topography over the far side. The estimated value for the lunar GM for this model equals 4902.80080±0.0009 km³/s² (10 sigma). The lunar degree 2 potential Love number k ₂ was also estimated, and has a value of 0.0255 ± 0.0016 (10 sigma as well).     

A simplified analysis method for piled raft foundations subjected to ground movements induced by tunnelling

A simplified method of numerical analysis has been developed to estimate the deformation and load distribution of piled raft foundations subjected to ground movements induced by tunnelling and incorporated into a computer program ‘PRAB’. In this method, a hybrid model is employed in which the flexible raft is modelled as thin plates, the piles as elastic beams, and the soil is treated as interactive springs. The interactions between structural members, pile–soil–pile, pile–soil–raft and raft–soil–raft interactions, are modelled based on Mindlin's solutions for both vertical and lateral forces. The validity of the proposed method is verified through comparisons with some published solutions for single piles and pile groups subjected to ground movements induced by tunnelling. Thereafter, the solutions from this approach for the analysis of a pile group and a piled raft subjected to ground movements induced by tunnelling are compared with those from three‐dimensional finite difference program. Good agreements between these solutions are demonstrated. The method is then used for a parametric study of single piles, pile groups and piled rafts subjected to ground movements induced by tunnelling. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Field Survey of Tsunami Effects in Sri Lanka due to the Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake of December 26, 2004

The December 26, 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake that registered a moment magnitude (M_w) of 9.1 was one of the largest earthquakes in the world since 1900. The devastating tsunami that resulted from this earthquake caused more casualties than any previously reported tsunami. The number of fatalities and missing persons in the most seriously affected countries were Indonesia - 167,736, Sri Lanka - 35,322, India - 18,045 and Thailand - 8,212. This paper describes two field visits to assess tsunami effects in Sri Lanka by a combined team of Japanese and Sri Lankan researchers. The first field visit from December 30, 2004 – January 04, 2005 covered the western and southern coasts of Sri Lanka including the cities of Moratuwa, Beruwala, Bentota, Pereliya, Hikkaduwa, Galle, Talpe, Matara, Tangalla and Hambantota. The objectives of the first field visit were to investigate the damage caused by the tsunami and to obtain eyewitness information about wave arrival times. The second field visit from March 10–18, 2005 covered the eastern and southern coasts of Sri Lanka and included Trincomalee, Batticaloa, Arugam Bay, Yala National Park and Kirinda. The objectives of the second visit were mainly to obtain eyewitness information about wave arrival times and inundation data, and to take relevant measurements using GPS instruments.     

Tsunami deposit associated with the 2011 Tohoku‐oki tsunami in the Hasunuma site of the Kujukuri coastal plain,Japan

We describe the detailed sedimentary characteristics of a tsunami deposit associated with the 2011 Tohoku‐oki tsunami in Hasunuma, a site on the Kujukuri coastal plain, Japan. The thick tsunami deposit was limited to within 350 m from the coastline whereas the inundation area extended about 1 km from the coastline. The tsunami deposit was sampled by excavation at 29 locations along three transects and studied using peels, soft‐X imaging and grain‐size analysis. The deposit covers the pre‐existing soil and reached a maximum measured thickness of 35 cm. It consists mainly of well‐sorted medium to fine sand. On the basis of sedimentary structures and changes in grain size, we divided the tsunami deposit into several sedimentary units, which may correspond to multiple inundation flows. The numbers of units and their sedimentary features vary among the three transects, despite the similar topography. This variation implies a considerable influence of local effects such as elevation, vegetation, microtopography, and distance from footpaths, on the tsunami‐related sedimentation.     

Migration of a volcanic front inferred from K–Ar ages of late Miocene to Pliocene volcanic rocks in central Japan

K–Ar ages have been determined for 14 late Miocene to Pliocene volcanic rocks in the north of the Kanto Mountains, Japan, for tracking the location of the volcanic front through the time. These samples were collected from volcanoes located behind the trench–trench–trench (TTT) triple junction of the Pacific, Philippine Sea, and North American plates. This junction is the site of subduction of slabs of the Pacific and the Philippine Sea plates, both of which are thought to have influenced magmatism in this region. The stratigraphy and K–Ar ages of volcanic rocks in the study area indicate that volcanism occurred between the late Miocene and the Pliocene, and ceased before the Pleistocene. Volcanism in adjacent areas of the southern NE Japan and northern Izu–Bonin arcs also occurred during the Pliocene and ceased at around 3 Ma with the westward migration of the volcanic front, as reported previously. Combining our new age data with the existing data shows that before 3 Ma the volcanic front around the TTT junction was located about 50 km east of the preset‐day volcanic front. We suggest that northward subduction of the Philippine Sea Plate slab ended at ～3 Ma as a result of collision between the northern margin of the plate with the surface of the Pacific Plate slab. This collision may have caused a change in the subduction vector of the Philippine Sea Plate from the original north‐directed subduction to the present‐day northwest‐directed subduction. This indicates that the post ～3 Ma westward migration of the volcanic front was a result of this change in plate motion.     

The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300

We present the greenhouse gas concentrations for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and their extensions beyond 2100, the Extended Concentration Pathways (ECPs). These projections include all major anthropogenic greenhouse gases and are a result of a multi-year effort to produce new scenarios for climate change research. We combine a suite of atmospheric concentration observations and emissions estimates for greenhouse gases (GHGs) through the historical period (1750?C2005) with harmonized emissions projected by four different Integrated Assessment Models for 2005?C2100. As concentrations are somewhat dependent on the future climate itself (due to climate feedbacks in the carbon and other gas cycles), we emulate median response characteristics of models assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report using the reduced-complexity carbon cycle climate model MAGICC6. Projected ??best-estimate?? global-mean surface temperature increases (using inter alia a climate sensitivity of 3°C) range from 1.5°C by 2100 for the lowest of the four RCPs, called both RCP3-PD and RCP2.6, to 4.5°C for the highest one, RCP8.5, relative to pre-industrial levels. Beyond 2100, we present the ECPs that are simple extensions of the RCPs, based on the assumption of either smoothly stabilizing concentrations or constant emissions: For example, the lower RCP2.6 pathway represents a strong mitigation scenario and is extended by assuming constant emissions after 2100 (including net negative CO₂ emissions), leading to CO₂ concentrations returning to 360 ppm by 2300. We also present the GHG concentrations for one supplementary extension, which illustrates the stringent emissions implications of attempting to go back to ECP4.5 concentration levels by 2250 after emissions during the 21^st century followed the higher RCP6 scenario. Corresponding radiative forcing values are presented for the RCP and ECPs.     

An emission pathway for stabilization at 6?Wm?2 radiative forcing

Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0 (RCP6) is a pathway that describes trends in long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), short-lived species, and land-use/land-cover change leading to a stabilisation of radiative forcing at 6.0 Watts per square meter (Wm^?2) in the year 2100 without exceeding that value in prior years. Simulated with the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM), GHG emissions of RCP6 peak around 2060 and then decline through the rest of the century. The energy intensity improvement rates changes from 0.9% per year to 1.5% per year around 2060. Emissions are assumed to be reduced cost-effectively in any period through a global market for emissions permits. The exchange of CO₂ between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystem through photosynthesis and respiration are estimated with the ecosystem model. The regional emissions, except CO₂ and N₂O, are downscaled to facilitate transfer to climate models.