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191.
Climate change is expected to increase temperatures and lower rainfall in Mediterranean regions; however, there is a great degree of uncertainty as to the amount of change. This limits the prediction capacity of models to quantify impacts on water resources, vegetation productivity and erosion. This work circumvents this problem by analysing the sensitivity of these variables to varying degrees of temperature change (increased by up to 6·4 °C), rainfall (reduced by up to 40%) and atmospheric CO2 concentrations (increased by up to 100%). The SWAT watershed model was applied to 18 large watersheds in two contrasting regions of Portugal, one humid and one semi‐arid; incremental changes to climate variables were simulated using a stochastic weather generator. The main results indicate that water runoff, particularly subsurface runoff, is highly sensitive to these climate change trends (down by 80%). The biomass growth of most species showed a declining trend (wheat down by 40%), due to the negative impacts of increasing temperatures, dampened by higher CO2 concentrations. Mediterranean species, however, showed a positive response to milder degrees of climate change. Changes to erosion depended on the interactions between the decline in surface runoff (driving erosion rates downward) and biomass growth (driving erosion rates upward). For the milder rainfall changes, soil erosion showed a significant increasing trend in wheat fields (up to 150% in the humid watersheds), well above the recovery capacity of the soil. Overall, the results indicate a shift of the humid watersheds to acquire semi‐arid characteristics, such as more irregular river flows and increasingly marginal conditions for agricultural production. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
192.
Declustering of Clustered Preferential Sampling for?Histogram and Semivariogram Inference 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Ricardo A. Olea 《Mathematical Geology》2007,39(5):453-467
Measurements of attributes obtained more as a consequence of business ventures than sampling design frequently result in samplings
that are preferential both in location and value, typically in the form of clusters along the pay. Preferential sampling requires
preprocessing for the purpose of properly inferring characteristics of the parent population, such as the cumulative distribution
and the semivariogram. Consideration of the distance to the nearest neighbor allows preparation of resampled sets that produce
comparable results to those from previously proposed methods. A clustered sampling of size 140, taken from an exhaustive sampling,
is employed to illustrate this approach. 相似文献
193.
Ricardo A. Olea 《Mathematical Geosciences》2007,39(5):453-467
Measurements of attributes obtained more as a consequence of business ventures than sampling design frequently result in samplings that are preferential both in location and value, typically in the form of clusters along the pay. Preferential sampling requires preprocessing for the purpose of properly inferring characteristics of the parent population, such as the cumulative distribution and the semivariogram. Consideration of the distance to the nearest neighbor allows preparation of resampled sets that produce comparable results to those from previously proposed methods. A clustered sampling of size 140, taken from an exhaustive sampling, is employed to illustrate this approach. 相似文献
194.
The Influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on Rainfall Triggering of Landslides near Lisbon 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Ricardo?M.?TrigoEmail author José L.?Zêzere Maria?L.?Rodrigues Isabel?F.?Trigo 《Natural Hazards》2005,36(3):331-354
The majority of landsliding episodes in the area north of Lisbon are associated with rainfall events of short (less than 5
days) medium (5–20 days) or long duration (more than 20 days). The precipitation regime in Portugal is highly irregular, with
large differences between wet and dry years. We have assessed the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on both the
winter precipitation and the timing and magnitude of associated landslide events. Results show that the large inter-annual
variability of winter precipitation is largely modulated by the NAO mode. The precipitation composite corresponding to high
NAO index presents a considerable lower median value (47 mm/month) than the corresponding low NAO index class (134 mm/month).
The entire precipitation distribution associated with the low NAO index composite encompasses a wider range of values than
the corresponding high NAO index composite. This non-linear behavior is reflected in the probability of occurrence of a very
wet month (precipitation above the 90% percentile) that is just 1% for the positive NAO class and 23% for low NAO index months.
Results for the low NAO class are crucial because these months are more likely associated with long-lasting rainfall episodes
responsible for large landslide events. This is confirmed by the application of a 3-month moving average to both NAO index
and precipitation time series. This procedure allowed the identification of many months with landslide activity as being characterized
by negative average values of the NAO index and high values of average precipitation (above 100 mm/month). Finally, using
daily data we have computed the return periods associated with the entire set of landslide episodes and, based on these results,
obtained a strong linear relationship between critical cumulative rainfall and the corresponding critical rainfall event duration. 相似文献
195.
Ricardo?A.?Locarnini Larry?P.?AtkinsonEmail author Arnoldo?Valle-Levinson 《Estuaries and Coasts》2002,25(1):1-5
We used an extensive temperature and salinity data set to develop a statistically meaningful way of estimating mean temperature and salinity from discrete measurements in the mouth of Chesapeake Bay. From April 1992 to December 1998, the Center for Coastal Physical Oceanography completed 73 monthly hydrographic sections at high spring tide across the mouth of Chesapeake Bay. Time series of area weighted mean bay mouth temperature (MBMT) and salinity (MBMS) were calculated. We found that at any time the temperature at any location in the section correlated with the MBMT with a r2 of 0.95 or better. A similar analysis for salinity showed that the best correlation was about 0.9 with many locations below 0.8. A correlation between MBMT and temperature at a nearby tide station indicated it was possible to estimate MBMT from the temperature at the tide station to ±0.74°C (90% confidence interval). Salinity was not measured at the tide station, but the correlation at a location in the section similar to the tide station indicates that MBMS can be estimated with an error of ±1.5 (90% confidence interval). 相似文献
196.
J. Delgado C. López Casado J. Giner A. Estévez A. Cuenca S. Molina 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2000,157(9):1445-1462
197.
Mark R. Abbott James G. Richman Ricardo M. Letelier Jasmine S. Bartlett 《Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography》2000,47(15-16)
The US Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS) conducted a series of survey and process studies in part to understand the processes regulating primary productivity and carbon flux in the APFZ, which is a high-nutrient, low-chlorophyll (HNLC) region. We deployed a high-resolution array of 12 moorings (average horizontal spacing 30 km) equipped with bio-optical and physical sensors to study the temporal and spatial scales of biological and physical processes in the APFZ. The moorings collected data from November 1997 to March 1998, effectively observing the growing season. Estimates of chlorophyll and sun-stimulated fluorescence/chlorophyll (F/C) were derived from the bio-optical measurements. Each mooring showed a strong spring bloom beginning in early December as the upper ocean began to stratify, with chlorophyll levels nearly quadrupling. The time series, along with ship studies, suggest that phytoplankton were initially light-limited as a result of deep, late spring mixing, followed by intense zooplankton grazing or silicate limitation, which controlled the maximum chlorophyll concentration, and finally by iron limitation, which led to increasing photoadaptive stress. These results suggest that phytoplankton in the APFZ are regulated by a confluence of processes involving light, grazing, silicate, and iron, and that models comprising a single mechanism may not be sufficient. The spring bloom in the APFZ is a transient event, persisting for only a few weeks, and therefore it is difficult to draw conclusions from sporadic ship cruises. Moreover, its spatial scales are also small so that widely spaced hydrographic stations can easily overlook critical processes. 相似文献
198.
J. Ignacio Martínez Yusuke Yokoyama Andres Gomez Adriana Delgado Hiroyuki Matsuzaki Esteban Rendon 《Journal of South American Earth Sciences》2010,29(2):214-224
The detailed stratigraphic survey and paleontological study (mollusks, corals, foraminifera and ostracods) of four low-level, ~3 m, marine terrace sections: Punta Canoas, Manzanillo del Mar, Playa de Oro, and Tierra Bomba Island, from the Cartagena region, southern Caribbean, supplemented with 22 radiocarbon dates, reveals that the northern terraces were deposited as parasequences in a clastic depositional system compared to the Tierra Bomba Island succession that was deposited in a carbonate depositional system between ~3600 and ~1700 cal yrs BP. Drier conditions and the southern location of the ITCZ at about 3 ka triggered stronger easterly Trades and more dynamic southwestward sediment drift fed by the Magdalena River mouth, thus promoting the formation of sand spits that ultimately isolated the Cienaga de Tesca coastal lagoon from the Caribbean Sea. Our estimates support the hypothesis that the present position of the terraces is the product of neotectonism rather than a higher 3 ka, sea-level. Upheaval of the terraces varies between ~3.8 mmyr?1 at Punta Canoas and ~2.2 mmyr?1 at Tierra Bomba to ~1.5 mmyr?1 at Manzanillo del Mar and Playa de Oro terraces. Our study corroborates previous contentions on the role of mud diapirism and the dynamics of the Dique Fault as late Holocene upheaval mechanisms. 相似文献
199.