Statistical analysis of the largest possible earthquake magnitudes on the Ecuadorian coast for selected return periods

ABSTRACT

In this work, we have studied the largest earthquake magnitudes on the Ecuadorian coast by using the principles of Extreme Value Analysis based on its two approaches: Block Maxima and Peaks-over-Threshold. First, before modelling the recorded earthquakes, the K-means clustering technique was applied to determine a classification according to the level of magnitude of the earthquakes. Then, models based on the Extreme Value theory of earthquake magnitudes were developed for each of the four clusters that were found, and finally, the best-fitted models were those known as Fréchet and Gumbel ones. The zone with the greatest earthquake magnitudes on the Ecuadorian coast is located between the north of the province of Manabí and the south of the province of Esmeraldas, with a return period of 50 years for an earthquake with magnitude greater than 7.7 M_W.     

Minor improvement for intertidal seaweeds and invertebrates after acid mine drainage diversion at Britannia Beach, Pacific Canada

In December 2001, acid mine drainage (AMD) from an abandoned copper mine at Britannia Beach (British Columbia, Canada) was diverted to flow from Britannia Creek into an outfall at 30 m depth in Howe Sound. Britannia Beach was studied in early 2003 to determine whether AMD diversion resulted in improved conditions for intertidal organisms. Species number and abundance have increased at the intertidal zone since AMD diversion, although they were still lower than at an unpolluted control site nearby (Furry Creek). Survivorship and growth rates of transplanted Mytilus trossulus (mussel) have increased since AMD diversion, although they were still significantly lower than at the control site. Transplanted Fucus gardneri (seaweed) performed better than before the AMD diversion; at Britannia Beach the chlorophyll a concentration in tissues was not significantly different from that at the control site, although the concentration of chlorophyll c in tissues and the chlorophyll c to a ratio was lower than at the control site six weeks after transplantation. Britannia Beach is still subject to leaching of metals from surrounding soils, low levels of AMD coming down the creek, and AMD discharge from the deep outfall. Although there has been an improvement, the intertidal environment at Britannia Beach still seems unable to support normal growth and survival of organisms.     

A participatory approach to integrated aquifer management: The case of Guanajuato State,Mexico

Guanajuato State, located in central Mexico, with less than 2% of the countrys area, has almost 17,000 deep water wells, from which nearly 4,000 cubic hectometers (hm³) per year are being extracted, more than 1,000 hm³ over the estimated renewable yield. Since, in Mexico, water is administered under federal jurisdiction by the National Water Commission (CNA, for its Spanish acronym), the state government faces the challenge of ensuring its populations economic development without formal means of intervention. Being thus limited to apply mandatory policies and measures, the state water program has focused on the implementation of a two-sided strategy. First, basic hydrogeological studies and mathematical groundwater hydrodynamic models were developed upon a comprehensive survey of existing wells and a general revision of the states geological framework. Second, a structure for water users participation in water management actions was promoted (from the dissemination of information to the implementation of pilot efficient water use projects) with financial, technical and political support from the state. Simultaneously, a coordinated effort towards the completion of the water users registry was performed with the federal authority along with other supporting measures such as training and monitoring programs. In this paper, a general overview of the projects achievements and challenges is presented.To make direct contact with the water-user associations mentioned in this paper, please write to Eng. Aurelio Navarrete of the State Water Council at: cehgto@prodigy.net.mx.     

Central Configurations of the Symmetric Restricted 4-Body Problem

We consider the symmetric planar (3 + 1)-body problem with finite masses m ₁ = m ₂ = 1, m ₃ = µ and one small mass m ₄ = . We count the number of central configurations of the restricted case = 0, where the finite masses remain in an equilateral triangle configuration, by means of the bifurcation diagram with as the parameter. The diagram shows a folding bifurcation at a value consistent with that found numerically by Meyer [9] and it is shown that for small > 0 the bifurcation diagram persists, thus leading to an exact count of central configurations and a folding bifurcation for small m ₄ > 0.     

Geology and tectonics of the basin of Mexico and their relationship with the damage caused by the earthquakes of September 1985

Summary The earthquakes of 19 September 1985 (18.2° N, 102.7° W and a magnitude of 8.1 Richter scale) and of 20 (17.6° N, 101.8° W and a magnitude of 7.5 Richter scale) September 1985, caused the total or partial destruction of more than 2000 structures in Mexico City. The most affected areas are located along the fringes of and bordering old roadways, earthworks (dikes), aquaducts and pre-hispanic population centres. Ancient construction artificially modified the sedimentation in the basin of the Mexico Valley Lakes making the sub-soil of Mexico City more rigid near to the surface, and producing deviations of the surface seismic waves (Rayleigh waves and Love waves). Also, when earthquakes occur on the Pacific coast, seismic waves travel quickly through plutonic, metamorphics and continental and marine rocks of different ages, having high seismic velocities. When the seismic waves enter the poorly consolidated lake sediments having low seismic velocities in the Mexico City Basin, they produce an energy buildup that causes the phenomenon called magnification.There exists a direct relation between the amplification mentioned above and the presence of rigid bodies that are buried in the sub-soil. The length of these bodies is of the order of tens of kilometres horizontally with thicknesses less than 50 metres. These Rigid Barriers produce reflections and refractions of the surface waves along their borders with destructive consequences for the buildings. A correlation between the buildings and the houses damaged and destroyed and the location of the prehispanic construction on the sub-soil has been made which shows that the most damage happened in the borders of old roadways (i.e. Tlalpan road), perimeter walls (i.e. San Lazaro), aqueducts (i.e. Chapultepec Avenue), pyramids (i.e. Templo Mayor) and population centres (i.e. Tlaltelolco).     

Single Particle Characterisation of the Aerosol in the Marine Boundary Layer and Free Troposphere over Tenerife, NE Atlantic, during ACE-2

In the framework of the 2nd Aerosol Characterization Experiment (ACE-2), in June and July 1997, size segregated samples were collected for single particle analysis on the island of Tenerife, in both the marine boundary layer (MBL) and the free troposphere (FT), to study the characteristics of the North Atlantic aerosol. A systematic assessment was made of the aerosol under background conditions and when the environment was perturbed by European emissions and/or Saharan dust. The aerosol particles were analysed by automated and manual SEM-EDX, followed by cluster analysis to identify the different particle types and their abundance. Basing on back trajectory calculations, particle numbers and volume concentrations, different periods can be identified regarding the origin of the sampled air masses. In the FT, the air masses were classified as clean Atlantic, Saharan dust from Africa or pollution from Europe. In the MBL, air masses were classified as clean, polluted or perturbed by emissions from Europe. For both the FT and MBL samples, the main changes in chemical composition were observed between the fine and coarse mode aerosol. The FT fine mode aerosol is dominated by S-poor aluminosilicates (62%) in the event of the dust samples or sulphates, carbonaceous particles (20%) and S-rich aluminosilicates (46%) in the polluted samples. For the larger fractions, a strong decreasing trend was observed for the sulphates (less than 20%) and carbonaceous particles (10%) in the polluted samples. The MBL fine mode was completely dominated by S-rich particles (polluted 55% and perturbed 59%), and to a lesser extent, carbonaceous and aged sea salt particles. In the coarse mode, the polluted air mass is dominated by sea salt particles (62%). Contrary to the fine fraction, the polluted air mass in the coarse fraction contained 5.3% of S-rich particles. The combined interpretation of the data from the analysis of size-fractioned particles and the calculated backward trajectories for air masses coming from Europe, Africa and the Atlantic, results in better insights on aerosol chemistry, especially for the comparison of the particle composition in the FT and the MBL.     

Large Scale Rockfall Reach Susceptibility Maps in La Cabrera Sierra (Madrid) performed with GIS and Dynamic Analysis at 1:5,000

For the testing of the effect on the tsunami prevention facilities, a simplified methodfor tsunami risk assessment was suggested without wave run-up analysis. This methodis proposed using calculated offshore tsunami waveform and field reconnaissance suchas the seawall height, time necessary for residents' evacuation and tsunami warninginsurance. Then, two normalized values are evaluated; one is the ratio of calculatedmaximum tsunami height to seawall height, the other is the ratio of time betweentsunami over-topping and evacuation completion to total time required for evacuation.These two values are used to qualitatively estimate the safety of residents and the effectof tsunami prevention facilities, eliminating the necessity to compute complicatedtsunami run-up onshore.     

Mixing Methodologies in Seismic Hazard Assessment via a Logic Tree Procedure: An Application for Eastern Spain

This study provides a procedure for assessing seismic hazardand uncertainties in regions that are characterised by a large non-instrumental earthquakedatabase and a seismic and tectonic behaviour which doesn't allow an evident seismic zonation.This procedure is a synthesis of the non-zoning or non-parametric methodology (using extremevalues distribution functions as proposed by Epstein and Lomnitz, 1966) and the zoning orparametric methodology (using the theorem of total probability as proposed by Cornell, 1968)via a logic tree procedure taking into consideration the advantages offered by each of these.Taking the area which we shall describe as the east coast of Spain and surrounding inland areas,an application was made and a specific logic tree was developed in order to solve the problems anduncertainties related to the evaluation of the seismic hazard using both methodologies. The use of thelogic tree allowed the systematisation of a large number of solutions obtained. A number of relevantresults were obtained which show that in some cases there are great differences in the seismichazard results provided by the non-zoning and the zoning methodologies. In these cases, mean value andstandard deviation of the obtained results provide an intermediate solution to the over-conservativeestimation provided by the non-zoning methodology and the lowest results provided by the zoningmethodology. In other cases results provided by both methodologies are significantly closer.In any case, synthesis among both methodologies gives a wider knowledge of the uncertaintiesassociated with the seismic hazard results. Finally uncertainties increase with the decreaseof the annual probability of exceedence and in sites with a seismic history of large size earthquakes.