Measures of Parameter Uncertainty in Geostatistical Estimation and Geostatistical Optimal Design

Studies of site exploration, data assimilation, or geostatistical inversion measure parameter uncertainty in order to assess the optimality of a suggested scheme. This study reviews and discusses measures for parameter uncertainty in spatial estimation. Most measures originate from alphabetic criteria in optimal design and were transferred to geostatistical estimation. Further rather intuitive measures can be found in the geostatistical literature, and some new measures will be suggested in this study. It is shown how these measures relate to the optimality alphabet and to relative entropy. Issues of physical and statistical significance are addressed whenever they arise. Computational feasibility and efficient ways to evaluate the above measures are discussed in this paper, and an illustrative synthetic case study is provided. A major conclusion is that the mean estimation variance and the averaged conditional integral scale are a powerful duo for characterizing conditional parameter uncertainty, with direct correspondence to the well-understood optimality alphabet. This study is based on cokriging generalized to uncertain mean and trends because it is the most general representative of linear spatial estimation within the Bayesian framework. Generalization to kriging and quasi-linear schemes is straightforward. Options for application to non-Gaussian and non-linear problems are discussed.     

Island shadow effects and the wave climate of the Western Tuamotu Archipelago (French Polynesia) inferred from altimetry and numerical model data

To implement a numerical model of atoll lagoon circulation, we characterized first the significant wave height (Hs) regime of the Western Tuamotu Archipelago and the local attenuation due to the protection offered by large atolls in the south Tuamotu. Altimetry satellite data and a WAVEWATCH III two-way nested wave model at 5km resolution from 2000 to 2010 were used. Correlation between altimetry and model was high (0.88) over the period. According to the wave model, the archipelago inner seas experienced attenuated Hs year-long with a yearly average Hs around 1.3m vs a minimum of 1.6m elsewhere. The island shadow effect is especially significant in the austral winter. In contrast with southern atolls, Western Tuamotu experienced only few days per year of Hs larger than 2.5m generated by very high Hs southern swell, transient western local storms, strong easterly winds, and during the passage of distant hurricanes.     

Seismic Ground Motion Expected for the Eastern District of Naples

The seismic ground motion of a test area in the eastern district of Naples is computed with a hybrid technique based on the mode summation and the finite difference methods. This technique allows us the realistic modelling of source and propagation effects, including local soil conditions. In the modelling, we consider the 1980 Irpinia earthquake, a good example of strong shaking for the area of Naples, which is located about 90 km from the epicenter.The detailed geological setting is reconstructed from a large number of drillings. The sub-soil is mainly formed by alluvial (ash, stratified sand and peat) and pyroclastic materials overlying a pyroclastic rock (yellow neapolitan tuff), representing the neapolitan bedrock. The detailed information available on mechanical properties of the sub-soil and its geometry warrants the application of the sophisticated hybrid technique.As expected, the sedimentary cover causes an increase of the signal's amplitudes and duration. If thin peat layers are present, the amplification effects are reduced, and the peak ground accelerations are similar to those observed for the bedrock model. This can be explained by the backscattering of wave energy at such layers, that tend to seismically decouple the upper from the lower part of the structure.For SH-waves, the influence of the variations of the S-wave velocities on the spectral amplification is studied, by considering locally measured velocities and values determined from near-by down-hole measurements. The comparison between the computed spectral amplifications confirms the key role of an accurate determination of the seismic velocities of the different layers.The comparison performed between a realistic 2-D seismic response and a standard 1-D response, based on the vertical propagation of waves in a plane layered structure, shows considerable difference, from which it is evident that serious caution must be taken in the modelling of expected ground motion at a specific site.     

Formation Mechanism of Mud Bank Along the Southwest Coast of India

Mud bank formation during the southwest monsoon along the southwest coast of India remains an enigma to the researchers and coastal community in spite of several earlier studies. The present study attempts to unravel the mystery through a high-frequency, season-long time-series observation at Alappuzha, located at the southern part of the west coast of India, a region of frequent occurrence of mud bank. Using 7-month-long weekly time-series observation, we identified strong winds and high waves associated with onset of the southwest monsoon and subsequent three episodic atmospheric low-pressure events (LPEs).With the help of in situ time-series data, we show that the strong winds and high waves associated with southwest monsoon pre-conditions the near shore bottom sediment to bring it into suspension. The high amplitude waves associated with the southwest monsoon, while propagating from the deep water to shallow water region, interact with the bottom initiating bottom-sediment movement and its suspension due to wave refraction and shoaling. The sporadic occurrence of the atmospheric LPEs enhances the process of suspension of bottom sediment in the near shore region leading to the formation of fluid mud. Simulations with a cohesive sediment transport model yielded realistic estimates of sediment transport, in the presence of an onshore current, a pre-requisite for transporting the fluid mud toward the coast. The prevailing onshore upwelling current during the southwest monsoon provides the favorable pre-requisite conditions for transporting the fluid mud through depression channel network towards the coast. Once sufficient quantity and thickness of fluid mud is accumulated in the near shore region, it acts as a wave damper for subsequent high monsoon waves, as indicated by the time-series wave data, leading to the formation of tranquil mud bank region. Depression channel networks extending from the shelf to the coast off Alappuzha, Kochi, Ponnani, Beypore, and Ullal were found in the bathymetric charts, thus explaining why mud banks occur only at few locations in spite of the prevalence of similar monsoon conditions.     

Numerical simulation of undersea cable dynamics

A fully three-dimensional code has been written to compute the motion of a towed cable. The code is based on a robust and stable finite difference approximation to the differential equations derived from basic dynamics. A 3500-ft (1.07 km) cable pulled at 18.5 knots (34.3 km hr⁻¹) through a circular turn of 700 yd (0.64 km) radius has been computed in about half of the real time of the maneuver. The computed displacements are close to the measured ones; the changes in depth are within 2%.     

Velocity and Density Heterogeneities of the Tien-Shan Lithosphere

—The Tien-Shan orogene is a region in which the earth’s crust undergoes considerable thickening and tangential compression. Under these conditions the lithosphere heterogeneities (composi tion, rheological) create the prerequisites for the development of various phenomena of tectonic layering (lateral shearing, different deformation of layers). To study the distribution of velocity, density and other elastic parameters, the results from a seismic tomography study on P-wave as well as S-wave velocities were used. Using empirical as well as theoretical formulas on the relationship between velocity, density and silica content in rocks, their distribution in the Tien-Shan’s lithosphere has been calculated. In addition, other elastic parameters, such as Young’s modulus, shear modulus, Poisson’s ratio and coefficient of general compressions have been determined. Zoning of different types of crust was carried out for the region investigated. The characteristics of the "crust-mantle" transition have been investi gated. Large blocks with different types of the earth’s crust were distinguished. Layers with inverse values of velocity, density and shear and Young modulus are revealed in the Tien-Shan lithosphere. All of the above described features open new ways to solve geodynamics problems.     

Anomalous luminescence of subglacial sediment at Haut Glacier d'Arolla,Switzerland – a consequence of resetting at the glacier bed?

Swift, D. A., Sanderson, D. C. W., Nienow, P. W., Bingham, R. G. & Cochrane, I. C. 2010: Anomalous luminescence of subglacial sediment at Haut Glacier d'Arolla, Switzerland – a consequence of resetting at the glacier bed? Boreas, Vol. 40, pp. 446–458. 10.1111/j.1502‐3885.2010.00196.x. ISSN 0300‐9483. Luminescence has the potential to elucidate glacial geomorphic processes because primary glacial sediment sources and transport pathways are associated with contrasting degrees of exposure to light. Most notably, sediment entrained from extraglacial sources should be at least partially reset, whereas sediment produced by glacial erosion of subglacial bedrock should retain substantial luminescence commensurate with a geological irradiation history. We set out to test the validity of this assumption at Haut Glacier d'Arolla, Switzerland using sediment sampled extraglacially and from the glacier bed. Contrary to our expectations, the subglacial samples exhibited natural signals that were substantially lower than those of other sample groups, and further (albeit limited) analyses have indicated no obvious differences in sample‐group luminescence characteristics or behaviour that could account for this observation. For glaciological reasons, we can eliminate the possibilities that the subglacial sediment has been extraglacially reset or exposed in situ to heat or light. We therefore advocate investigation of possible resetting processes related to subglacial crushing and grinding, and speculate that such processes, if more generally present, may enable the dating of subglacially deposited tills using luminescence‐based techniques.     

Performance of seismically loaded shearwalls on nonlinear shallow foundations

If utilized, the energy dissipative capability of seismically loaded shallow foundations due to inelastic behavior can result in more economic design, provided the consequences, such as excessive deformations are accounted for. In this article, a Beam‐on‐Nonlinear‐Winkler‐Foundation (BNWF) model is used to assess the performance of shearwall‐foundation systems with different attributes, when subjected to ground motions of varied hazard levels. The numerical study indicates that the force and drift demands to the shearwall reduce significantly, when nonlinear foundation behavior is realized, while permanent settlement is well below the permissible limit. These results support the concept of shallow foundation capacity mobilization in future design. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.