Spatial probabilistic modeling of slope failure using an integrated GIS Monte Carlo simulation approach

Spatial probabilistic modeling of slope failure using a combined Geographic Information System (GIS), infinite-slope stability model and Monte Carlo simulation approach is proposed and applied in the landslide-prone area of Sasebo city, southern Japan. A digital elevation model (DEM) for the study area has been created at a scale of 1/2500. Calculated results of slope angle and slope aspect derived from the DEM are discussed. Through the spatial interpolation of the identified stream network, the thickness distribution of the colluvium above Tertiary strata is determined with precision. Finally, by integrating an infinite-slope stability model and Monte Carlo simulation with GIS, and applying spatial processing, a slope failure probability distribution map is obtained for the case of both low and high water levels.     

Pn arrivals and lateral variations of Moho geometry beneath the Kaapvaal craton

Pn arrivals from mining-induced earthquakes on the edge of the Witwatersrand basin show that the P wavespeeds in the uppermost mantle are almost constant throughout most of the Kaapvaal craton. The presence of only small wavespeed variations allows the use of a simple method of estimating crustal thicknesses below the stations of the Kaapvaal broad-band network using Pn times that has been compared with results from receiver functions. One thousand three hundred thirty-seven Pn arrivals were used to derive crustal thicknesses at 46 stations on the Kaapvaal craton. The average crustal thicknesses for 19 centrally located stations on each of the northern and southern regions of the craton that yielded well-constrained thicknesses were 50.52±0.88 km and 38.07±0.85 km, respectively. In contrast, the corresponding average thicknesses determined from receiver functions were 43.58±0.57 km and 37.58±0.70 km, respectively. The systematically lower values for receiver functions in the northern part of the Kaapvaal craton that was affected by the Bushveld magmatism at 2.05 Ga, suggest that the receiver functions do not enable the petrological crust mantle boundary to be reliably resolved due to variations in composition and metamorphic grade in a mafic lower crust. The Pn times also suggest pervasive azimuthal anisotropy with maximum wavespeeds of about 8.40 km/s at azimuths of about 15° and 217° in the northern and southern regions of the craton, respectively, and minimum wavespeeds of about 8.25 km/s.     

The chemical composition of stars in the globular clusters M 10, M 12, and M 71

The abundances of 19 chemical elements in the atmospheres of five stars belonging to three globular clusters have been determined by applying the model-atmospheremethod to 430.0–790.0 nm spectra obtained with the échelle spectrometer of the 6-m telescope of the Special Astrophysical Observatory. The abundances of silicon, calcium, iron-peak elements, copper, zinc, and neutron-capture elements follow the abundance patterns for halo stars. The abundance of sodium in M 10 giants provides evidence that different mixing mechanisms operate in halo and cluster stars or that light elements are enriched in different ways in the pre-stellar matter from which some globular clusters and halo stars were formed.     

Preliminary Rock-Slope-Susceptibility Assessment Using GIS and the SMR Classification

This paper aims to examine the impact of large-scale structuraladjustments (like the Greater Dhaka Flood Protection Project, GDFPP) on local living environment.It focuses the importance of environmental factors in flood hazard mitigation, and examines theenvironmental attitudes of the floodplain residents arising from the large-scale structural adjustments.Based on `perceived natural hazard research perspectives', this paper examines: (i) the reasons for persistentfloodplain occupation, and (ii) the importance of environmental factors in the choice, motivations and decision-makingof floodplain residents.This research used data collected from 300 households situated inthe eastern part of Dhaka. The face-to-face household survey data provided individuals' responses to a structuredquestionnaire on hazards and environment. Survey concerned urban floodplains, and looked fordata on housing, household characteristics, and residents' attitudes. Results of interview surveys wereused to: (i) explore the reasons of floodplain occupation, and (ii) residents' attitudes to tolerable levelof flood risk and willingness to accept environmental change resulting from the proposed structural embankments inthe eastern perimeter of Dhaka City, Bangladesh.Findings revealed that floodplain occupation (by theindividuals' decision-making) was a result of overall reaction to the Government's structuraladjustment policies that resulted from institutional, locational and socio-economic factors. The attitude survey results provided residents' perception to hazards and environment to be dependenton the socio-economic factors – but in a complex manner, many factors are interrelated.In addition to support for structural embankments, the study sample displayed a common concernand widespread environmental awareness. In terms of any `trade-off' between thebenefits (resources) from the embankments and costs (hazards) due to the detrimental impact on environment, the residents of Dhaka, despite some concern forsacrificing embankments for environment, tended to show a generalconsensus for embankments.     

Origin of Hydrocarbons in Hydrothermal Sulfide Ores in the Mid-Atlantic Ridge

The Rainbow hydrothermal field (36° N Mid-Atlantic Ridge) is one of the three presently known fields related to serpentinization of ultramafic rocks accompanied by the formation of hydrogen- and methane-rich solutions. Gas chromatographic (GC) and molecular gas chromatographic–mass spectrometric (GC-MS) investigations of sulfide ores and sediments from this field confirmed a predominantly biological nature of bitumoids related to the high-temperature transformation of biomass of the hydrothermal biological community. At the same time, ores of the Rainbow field contain significant amounts of compounds that are not directly related to biogenic synthesis. This fact suggests the possibility of an abiogenic synthesis of methane and even complex hydrocarbons during the serpentinization of ultramafic rocks.     

Impact of Sea-level Rise and Storm Surges on a Coastal Community

A technique to evaluate the risk of storm tides (the combination of a storm surge and tide) under present and enhanced greenhouse conditions has been applied to Cairns on the north-eastern Australian coast. The technique combines a statistical model for cyclone occurrence with a state-of-the-art storm surge inundation model and involves the random generation of a large number of storm tide simulations. The set of simulations constitutes a synthetic record of extreme sea-level events that can be analysed to produce storm tide return periods. The use of a dynamic storm surge model with overland flooding capability means that the spatial extent of flooding is also implicitly modelled. The technique has the advantage that it can readily be modified to include projected changes to cyclone behaviour due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. Sea-level heights in the current climate for return periods of 50, 100, 500 and 1000 years have been determined to be 2.0 m, 2.3 m, 3.0 m and 3.4 m respectively. In an enhanced greenhouse climate (around 2050), projected increases in cyclone intensity and mean sea-level see these heights increase to 2.4 m, 2.8 m, 3.8 m and 4.2 m respectively. The average area inundated by events with a return period greater than 100 years is found to more than double under enhanced greenhouse conditions.     

Mineralized Microbiota: A Possible Indicator of Hydrocarbon Flows in the Rift Zone of Iceland

Relationships of mineralized microbiota with the content of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in hydrothermal systems are considered. It has been established that the mineralized microbiota can serve as an indicator of hydrothermal hydrocarbon flows in present-day and ancient deposits.     

Reliability based risk index for the design of reinforced earth structures

The design methods currently used for earth reinforcement are mostly based on deterministic properties of both the soil and the construction materials used. Nowadays, however, the general trend is designing at a specific degree of reliability. This is even more true where the raw data such as soil properties exhibit significant variation. Deterministic solutions, in this case, may not suffice. Therefore, this paper will attempt to use probabilistic formulations thereby modifying the existing design procedure of reinforced earth retaining walls to account for uncertainties and variabilities. Through a first order Taylor's series expansion about the mean, the mean and variance of the strip reinforcing components, namely width and length, are derived in terms of the variations in the soil properties. Design charts that enable estimation of both mean and variance are developed to avoid extensive partial differentiation involved in the computations. Using appropriate probability distributions along with the mean and variance, the final design outputs are determined for a selected failure probability by introducing what is refered to as 'risk index'. The results indicate that the risk index increases with an increase in the coefficient of variations and a decrease in failure probability. Furthermore, it is shown that in some cases, depending on the variabilities of the soil properties, the classical design technique produced a relatively high failure probability. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.