气候变化对中国农业生产的影响

根据１９５８￣１９９７年中国３１０个气象站的月平均最高、最低气温,月平均降水量,日照时数等气象参数分析了中国气候的背影特征。用３个大气环流模型,即ＨａｄＣＭ２、ＣＧＣＭ１、ＥＣＨＡＭ４来模拟未来中国气候变化的情景。同时,建立未来气候变化的６种方案。最后,根据３个ＧＣＭｓ模拟的结果,利用国际应用系统分析研究所（ＩＩＡＳＡ）发展并改进的农业生态地带模型（ＡＥＺ）评估气候变化对中国农业生产的影响。评估主     

Spatial patterns of urban land use growth in Beijing

By using digitized land use maps of Beijing in 1982, 1992 and 1997 and employing GIS spatial analysis techniques, this paper conducts an empirical study on the spatial differentiation and spatial patterns of urban land use growth in Beijing in the period of 1982–1997. It is observed that urban land use growth in Beijing went beyond the control of urban planning, in terms of the extraordinary high growth rate and undesired spatial pattern. The rate of urban expansion after 1982, which was predominated by growth of industrial land, was extraordinary high compared to its historical period. While its growth centers have been actively shifting toward the northern part, rather than toward the southern and eastern parts as designated by the latest General Plan (1991–2010) of Beijing, its spatial pattern of urban land use growth in general was in distinct concentric sprawl, which seriously violated the General Plan of Beijing.     

The impact of the US retreat from the Paris Agreement: Kyoto revisited?

The United States’ decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement (pending possible re-engagement under different terms) may have significant ramifications for international climate policy, but the implications of this decision remain contested. This commentary illustrates how comparative analysis of US participation in multilateral environmental agreements can inform predictions and future assessments of the decision. We compare and contrast US non-participation in the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement, focusing on four key areas that may condition the influence of US treaty decisions on international climate policy: (i) global momentum on climate change mitigation; (ii) the possibility of US non-participation giving rise to alternative forms of international collaboration on climate policy; (iii) the timing and circumstances of the US decision to exit; and (iv) the influence of treaty design on countries’ incentives to participate and comply. We find that differences across the two treaties relating to the first three factors are more likely to reduce the negative ramifications of US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement compared to the Kyoto Protocol. However, the increased urgency of deep decarbonization renders US non-participation a major concern despite its declining share of global emissions. Moreover, key design features of the Paris Agreement suggest that other countries may react to the US decision by scaling back their levels of ambition and compliance, even if they remain in the Agreement.

Key policy insights

• Increasing global momentum on mitigation since 1997 means that US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement is potentially less damaging than its non-participation in the Kyoto Protocol

• Despite the declining US share of global emissions, greater urgency of deep decarbonization means that the non-participation of a major player, such as the US, remains problematic for global cooperation and achieving the Paris Agreement’s goals

• Differences in the design of the Kyoto Protocol and Paris Agreement suggest that US non-participation is more likely to prompt reluctant countries to stay within the Paris framework but reduce levels of ambition and compliance, rather than exit the Agreement altogether

     

Spatial patterns of urban land use growth in Beijing

By using digitized land use maps of Beijing in 1982, 1992 and 1997 and employing GIS spatial analysis techniques, this paper conducts an empirical study on the spatial differentiation and spatial patterns of urban land use growth in Beijing in the period of 1982-1997. It is observed that urban land use growth in Beijing went beyond the control of urban planning, in terms of the extraordinary high growth rate and undesired spatial pattern. The rate of urban expansion after 1982, which was predominated by growth of industrial land, was extraordinary high compared to its historical period. While its growth centers have been actively shifting toward the northern part, rather than toward the southern and eastern parts as designated by the latest General Plan (1991-2010) of Beijing, its spatial pattern of urban land use growth in general was in distinct concentric sprawl, which seriously violated the General Plan of Beijing.     

Relative Impacts of Natural Stressors on Life History Traits Underlying Resilience of Intertidal Eelgrass (Zostera marina L.)

Seagrasses are a critical marine habitat and are in decline worldwide. Previous studies have demonstrated that factors such as sediment conditions, resource availability, and desiccation can influence life history transitions and morphology in intertidal eelgrass (Zostera marina L.) and therefore potential for recovery after a disturbance. We combined these factors in an exploratory path model linking environmental conditions to eelgrass vegetative (shoot size and density) and reproductive traits (branching, flowering, seedling recruitment). In this construction, significant path coefficients reveal factors influencing recovery potential. To test the path model, we collected abiotic and eelgrass data at 17 sites in the southern Salish Sea (Washington, USA) and assessed model fit with structural equation modeling. Significant path coefficients linked sediment organic content to shoot size and seedling recruitment, tidal amplitude to reduced flowering, and shoot size and density were inversely correlated. We found no significant links between any morphological or life history trait and nutrient availability, possibly reflecting consistently high nutrients across sites. Variable rates of asexual reproduction and a trade-off between shoot size and density may reflect light limitation in eelgrass’ intertidal range, where light is not expected to be strongly limiting. Overall, structural equation modeling identified organic-rich sediments as relatively more important than desiccation and nutrient conditions for resilience potential of intertidal eelgrass populations in this region. Life history and morphological traits provide eelgrass with recovery mechanisms from disturbance where sediments are muddy, which has implications for both conservation and restoration.     

Die geodynamische Entwicklung der Thiersee- und der Karwendelmulde (Nördliche Kalkalpen)

Zusammenfassung Die Thiersee- und die Karwendelmulde in den Nördlichen Kalkalpen sind als zwei getrennte, E-W-verlaufende Synklinen entwickelt. Ihre Länge zwischen Kufstein und Mittenwald beträgt über 70 km.Systematische geologische Aufnahmen — Kartierung, Stratigraphie, Sedimentologie und Gefügekunde — ergaben, daß die Thierseemuide im Raum von Achenkirch nicht — wie früher vermutet wurde — in die Karwendelmulde umbiegt. Die Auswertung von mehr als 45 000 Gefügemessungen mit Hilfe eines EDV-Programms bewies vielmehr, daß Thierseemuide und Karwendelmulde zwei parallele, unabhängige Strukturen sind, die durch die komplizierte tektonische Zone von Achenkirch getrennt werden.Die paläogeographische Entwicklung und der Ablauf der Bewegungen werden im Überblick skizziert.

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Systematic geological survey showed that the Thiersee and Karwendel synclines in the Northern Calcareous Alps are two parallel structures, separated by a slightly folded intersection. The synclines do not turn into each other, as was presumed by earlier workers.The tectonic situation in the area of Achenkirch was cleared by evaluation of more than 45,000 field texture data by a computer program. Mapping as well as stratigraphical and sedimentological analysis supports the tectonic model. The paleogeographic development and tectonic history are briefly described.

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Résumé Les dépressions du «Thiersee» et du «Karwendel», dans les Alpes calcaires du Nord, sont deux synclinaux indépendants de direction Est-Ouest. Elles font 70 km de long entre Kufstein et Mittenwald.Des relevés géologiques systématiques — levés géologiques, stratigraphie, sédimentologie et structurologie — démontrèrent que, dans la région d'Achenkirch, la dépression du «Thiersee» ne contourne pas la dépression du «Karwendel» (comme on l'a longtemps supposé!). L'exploitation par ordinateur de plus de 45.000 mesures structurales révéla au contraire, que ces dépressions sont deux structures parallèles et indépendantes, séparées par la zone tectonique complexe d'Achenkirch.Le développement paléogéographique et le déroulement des mouvements font l'objet d'une vue d'ensemble.

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How much water do Chilean forests use? A review of interception losses in forest plot studies

After several years of decreased annual rainfall and water shortages, the Chilean society is demanding that forest plantations take accountability of their role in consuming scarce water resources. Evidence has shown that interception losses are considerable when determining water production in watersheds. The aim of this study was to determine if site and stand variables explain interception losses by Chilean forests for the development of an empirical model that could predict the potential impacts of forest management practices and land‐use change. A total of 127 data from annual water balance plot studies in Chile were compiled to derive relationships between interception and precipitation, species composition, plantation age and other stand and site variables. The reviewed data indicated that annual interception losses are mainly explained by annual rainfall and basal area of the forest stands, with a clear difference between the northern (dryer) and southern (wetter) regions of Chile. For a wide latitudinal gradient, forest composition and age, annual interception accounted for approximately 21% of incoming precipitations. Broadleaved forest stands (including native broadleaved and eucalypt forests) generally presented higher interception losses than conifers. Interception was higher in northern zones, indicating that forests have greater impacts on water resources in dryer regions. Our results were compiled in empirical models, which can be used to estimate forest interception in a latitudinal gradient in Chile and to support policy making. These results are also proposed as an approximate analogue of the changes in forest interception losses, which may occur as vegetation belts shift latitudinally as a result of the impact of climate change. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A gender analysis of quality of life in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan

While many community initiatives have attempted to assess the nature and determinants of their citizens’ quality of life (QOL), these initiatives have produced little about whether the key determinants of life quality differ by gender. Using both quantitative and qualitative data from a recent QOL research project in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada, this study explores whether factors that predict poor QOL are similar for women and men. The study also examines whether the nature of these gender differences varies across low, medium and high socio-economic status locales. Results showed that men and women were very similar in: (1) their QOL ratings, (2) reports of deterioration in neighborhood QOL, and (3) rating particular aspects of their neighborhood. Few gender differences were also found when analyzing data referring to place characteristics and social cohesion. Multivariate analysis revealed further similarities: (1) being divorced/widowed was a significant predictor of poor QOL, and (2) a negative view of community security issues was associated with deterioration in perceived neighborhood quality of life. For women, however, other variables were important predictors of QOL: being middle aged, being single, and having a poor opinion of the overall quality of their neighborhood. Qualitative analysis revealed that while men and women shared concern about general areas such as safety and neighborhood supports, their perceptions of the details around these issues differed. The multi-method results suggest that urban policy actions should include a gendered discussion of common QOL issues.     

Mercury mobilization by oxidative dissolution of cinnabar (α-HgS) and metacinnabar (β-HgS)

Cinnabar (α-HgS) and metacinnabar (β-HgS) dissolved at environmentally significant rates in oxygenated slurry experiments simulating a low-flow fluvial system. Based on SO₄²⁻ production, cinnabar dissolution rates were 2.64 to 6.16 μmol (SO₄²⁻) m^− 2 day^− 1, and metacinnabar dissolution rates were 1.20 to 1.90 μmol (SO₄²⁻) m^− 2 day^− 1. Monodentate-bound thiosulfate (S₂O₃²⁻) was identified as an oxidation product on the HgS surface by ATR-IR spectroscopy based on strong infrared absorption bands in the 1140–1145 cm^− 1 and 1006–1014 cm^− 1 regions. The presence of sulfide oxidation intermediates on the HgS surface indicates that SO₄²⁻ concentration underestimates α-HgS and β-HgS dissolution in this setting. Mercury release rates during dissolution were more than two orders of magnitude less than SO₄²⁻ production, but were significant: 0.47 mg (Hg) m^− 2 y^− 1 from cinnabar [6.45 nmol (Hg) m^− 2 day^− 1], and 0.17 mg (Hg) m^− 2 y^− 1 from metacinnabar [2.29 nmol (Hg) m^− 2 day^− 1]. The Hg mobilized during α-HgS and β-HgS dissolution is sufficient to form natural Au–Hg amalgam in downstream placer settings. The proportion of mercury that is not remobilized during α-HgS and β-HgS dissolution likely adsorbs to the dissolving mercuric sulfide. Adsorption of Hg²⁺ to cinnabar was detected in situ by anodic stripping voltammetry using a cinnabar-modified carbon paste electrode following accumulation of Hg²⁺ on the electrode at open circuit potential.