High resolution regional climate model simulations for Germany: part I—validation

A five-member ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) simulations for Europe, with a high resolution nest over Germany, is analysed in a two-part paper: Part I (the current paper) presents the performance of the models for the control period, and Part II presents results for near future climate changes. Two different RCMs, CLM and WRF, were used to dynamically downscale simulations with the ECHAM5 and CCCma3 global climate models (GCMs), as well as the ERA40-reanalysis for validation purposes. Three realisations of ECHAM5 and one with CCCma3 were downscaled with CLM, and additionally one realisation of ECHAM5 with WRF. An approach of double nesting was used, first to an approximately 50 km resolution for entire Europe and then to a domain of approximately 7 km covering Germany and its near surroundings. Comparisons of the fine nest simulations are made to earlier high resolution simulations for the region with the RCM REMO for two ECHAM5 realisations. Biases from the GCMs are generally carried over to the RCMs, which can then reduce or worsen the biases. The bias of the coarse nest is carried over to the fine nest but does not change in amplitude, i.e. the fine nest does not add additional mean bias to the simulations. The spatial pattern of the wet bias over central Europe is similar for all CLM simulations, and leads to a stronger bias in the fine nest simulations compared to that of WRF and REMO. The wet bias in the CLM model is found to be due to a too frequent drizzle, but for higher intensities the distributions are well simulated with both CLM and WRF at the 50 and 7 km resolutions. Also the spatial distributions are close to high resolution gridded observations. The REMO model has low biases in the domain averages over Germany and no drizzle problem, but has a shift in the mean precipitation patterns and a strong overestimation of higher intensities. The GCMs perform well in simulating the intensity distribution of precipitation at their own resolution, but the RCMs add value to the distributions when compared to observations at the fine nest resolution.     

Event and model dependent rainfall adjustments to improve discharge predictions

Most conceptual rainfall–runoff models use as input spatially averaged rainfall fields which are typically associated with significant errors that affect the model outcome. In this study, it was hypothesised that a simple spatially and temporally averaged event-dependent rainfall multiplier can account for errors in the rainfall input. The potentials and limitations of this lumped multiplier approach were explored by evaluating the effects of multipliers on the accuracy and precision of the predictive distributions. Parameter sets found to be behavioural across a range of different flood events were assumed to be a good representation of the catchment dynamics and were used to identify rainfall multipliers for each of the individual events. An effect of the parameter sets on identified multipliers was found; however, it was small compared to the differences between events. Accounting for event-dependent multipliers improved the reliability of the predictions. At the cost of a small decrease in precision, the distribution of identified multipliers for past events can be used to account for possible rainfall errors when predicting future events. By using behavioural parameter sets to identify rainfall multipliers, the method offers a simple and computationally efficient way to address rainfall errors in hydrological modelling.     

Geochemical aspects of permeability controlled partial melting and fractional crystallization

Magma accumulation in the mantle requires that the mantle be permeable. Experimental investigations show that the permeability threshold first will be attained after a certain degree of partial melting. The influence of the permeability threshold on the composition of partial melts is evaluated using the fayalite-forsterite system as an example. In addition the variation in trace element concentrations are calculated for different distribution coefficients. Primary magmas formed by accumulation when a minimal degree of partial melting is required for permeability display a remarkably small variation in composition up to 30% partial melting. It is suggested from REE abundances that primary tholeiitic magmas have been generated by permeability controlled partial melting. The compositions of the primary magmas generated by permeability controlled partial melting will not differ much from the compositions obtained by batch melting, but the degrees of partial melting will differ for similar compositions.     

Problems associated with luminescence dating of Late Quaternary glacial sediments in the NW Scottish Highlands

Linking the timing of glacial episodes and behaviour to climatic shifts that are documented in ice and marine sedimentary archives is key to understanding ocean-land interactions. In the NW Scottish Highlands a large number of closely spaced (‘hummocky’) moraines formed at retreating glacier margins. Independent age control on one palaeo-glacier limit is consistent with the timing of Younger Dryas (YD) glaciation in the area, but adjacent glacier lobes have remained undated due to the lack of sites and material for ¹⁴C dating. Direct dating of ice-marginal moraines using optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) techniques has never been attempted before in Scotland, but if successful, they may be the most appropriate methods for constraining the age of sediment deposition in the absence of organic material. Coarse-grained quartz and K-feldspar minerals from supraglacial sheet flow deposits and glacilacustrine sediments within ice-marginal moraines were analysed using the single-aliquot regenerative-dose (SAR) protocol. Independent age control and clear geomorphological relationships indicate that all samples should yield YD or post-Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) ages. Quartz OSL shine down curves showed low luminescence sensitivity, significant medium-to-slow components, a weak fast component, and scattered SAR data; Linearly Modulated-OSL (LM-OSL) measurements confirmed that the fast component was weak or absent. In contrast, feldspar infrared stimulated luminescence (IRSL) was highly sensitive with excellent SAR data. However, SAR data from 3 mm diameter aliquots of feldspar (200 grains) give higher than expected equivalent doses (D_e) by an order of magnitude. SAR measurements of small clusters of feldspar grains (ranging from 1–8) considerably broaden the apparent D_e distribution, but even the lowest value is about 2–3 times the expected D_e. Two possibilities arise to explain the quartz and feldspar data: (1) that glacial sequences in the NW Highlands re-work inherited (older) glacial deposits and that some of the pre-Devensian existing glacial landforms have only been modified during Devensian glaciation; or (2) that the sedimentary processes operating in these ice-marginal environments are not conducive to adequate bleaching of quartz and feldspar grains. Our study implies that ice-proximal supraglacial sediments from this region in NW Scotland reflect older ages of deposition, but dating YD sediments has not been possible.     

Alpine snow cover in a changing climate: a regional climate model perspective

An analysis is presented of an ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) experiments from the ENSEMBLES project in terms of mean winter snow water equivalent (SWE), the seasonal evolution of snow cover, and the duration of the continuous snow cover season in the European Alps. Two sets of simulations are considered, one driven by GCMs assuming the SRES A1B greenhouse gas scenario for the period 1951–2099, and the other by the ERA-40 reanalysis for the recent past. The simulated SWE for Switzerland for the winters 1971–2000 is validated against an observational data set derived from daily snow depth measurements. Model validation shows that the RCMs are capable of simulating the general spatial and seasonal variability of Alpine snow cover, but generally underestimate snow at elevations below 1,000 m and overestimate snow above 1,500 m. Model biases in snow cover can partly be related to biases in the atmospheric forcing. The analysis of climate projections for the twenty first century reveals high inter-model agreement on the following points: The strongest relative reduction in winter mean SWE is found below 1,500 m, amounting to 40–80 % by mid century relative to 1971–2000 and depending upon the model considered. At these elevations, mean winter temperatures are close to the melting point. At higher elevations the decrease of mean winter SWE is less pronounced but still a robust feature. For instance, at elevations of 2,000–2,500 m, SWE reductions amount to 10–60 % by mid century and to 30–80 % by the end of the century. The duration of the continuous snow cover season shows an asymmetric reduction with strongest shortening in springtime when ablation is the dominant factor for changes in SWE. We also find a substantial ensemble-mean reduction of snow reliability relevant to winter tourism at elevations below about 1,800 m by mid century, and at elevations below about 2,000 m by the end of the century.     

Particulate organic carbon (POC) in surface sediments of the Baltic Sea

In this study, particulate organic carbon (POC) contents and their distribution pattern in surficial sediments of the Baltic Sea are presented for 1,471 sampling stations. POC contents range from approx. 0.1% in shallow sandy areas up to 16% in deep muddy basins (e.g. Gotland Basin). Some novel relationships were identified between sediment mass physical properties (dry bulk density (DBD), grain size) and POC levels. Notably, the highest POC concentrations (about 10–17 mg cm^–3) occur in sandy mud to mud (60–100% mud content) with intermediate POC contents of about 3–7% and DBDs of 0.1–0.4 g cm^–3. Areas with this range in values seem to represent the optimum conditions for POC accumulation in the Baltic Sea. The maximum POC contents (8–16%) are found in fluid mud of the central Baltic Sea characterized by extremely low DBDs (<0.1 g cm^–3) and moderate POC concentrations (4–7 mg cm^–3). Furthermore, sediment mass accumulation rates (MAR), based on ²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs measurements and available for 303 sites of the Baltic Sea, were used for assessing the spatial distribution of POC burial rates. Overall, these vary between 14 and 35 g m^–2 year^–1 in the mud depositional areas and, in total, at least 3.5 (±2.9) Mt POC are buried annually. Distribution patterns of POC contents and burial rates are not identical for the central Baltic Sea because of the low MAR in this area. The presented data characterize Baltic Sea sediments as an important sink for organic carbon. Regional differences in organic carbon deposition can be explained by the origin and transport pathways of POC, as well as the environmental conditions prevailing at the seafloor (morphology, currents, redox conditions). These findings can serve to improve budget calculations and modelling of the carbon cycle in this large brackish-water marginal sea.