Statistical analysis of metallic anomaly patterns at former air force bombing ranges

This paper summarizes the findings of a statistical analysis of the locations of metallic anomalies detected at the Pueblo Precision Bombing Range Number 2 in Otero County, Colorado, and at the Victorville Precision Bombing Range in San Bernardino County, California. The purpose of the study is to explore whether statistical properties of the pattern of anomaly locations can be used to discriminate areas likely to contain unexploded ordnance (UXO) left over from previous bombing practice from those unlikely to contain UXO. Techniques for discriminating areas with and without UXO are needed because historic records have left an incomplete account of previous military training activities, so that locations historically used for target practice are often unknown. This study differs from previous research on metallic anomaly data at former military training ranges in that it analyzes the spatial pattern of the discrete locations of the anomalies, rather than the average number of anomalies per unit area. The results indicate that differences in spatial pattern may be a distinguishing feature between areas that were used for target practice and those that are unlikely to contain UXO, even when a large number of ferrous rocks and other inert metallic anomalies are present. We found that at both of the former bombing ranges, the anomaly patterns in sample areas that are distant from all known bombing targets are consistent with a complete spatial randomness pattern, while those near the target areas fit a radially symmetric, bivariate Gaussian pattern. Furthermore, anomaly location patterns generated by surveys with airborne metal detectors have the same statistical properties as the patterns generated by surveys with on-ground detectors, even though the airborne systems detect only a subset of the anomalies found by the ground-based detectors. Thus, pattern information revealed by airborne surveys with metal detectors may be useful in identifying areas where careful searches for UXO are needed.

Factors controlling nitrogen release from two forested catchments with contrasting hydrochemical responses

Quantifying biogeochemical cycles of nitrogen (N) and the associated fluxes to surface waters remains challenging, given the need to deal with spatial and temporal variability and to characterize complex and heterogeneous landscapes. We focused our study on catchments S14 and S15 located in the Adirondack Mountains of New York, USA, which have similar topographic and hydrologic characteristics but contrasting stream nitrate ( ) concentrations. We characterized the mechanisms by which reaches the streams during hydrological events in these catchments, aiming to reconcile our field data with our conceptual model of factors that regulate nutrient exports from forested catchments. Combined hydrometric, chemical and isotopic (δ ) data showed that the relative contributions of both soil and ground water sources were similar between the two catchments. Temporal patterns of stream chemistry were markedly different between S14 and S15, however, because the water sources in the two catchments have different solute concentrations. During late summer/fall, the largest source of in S14 was till groundwater, whereas shallow soil was the largest source in S15. concentrations in surface water decreased in S14, whereas they increased in S15 because an increasing proportion of stream flow was derived from shallow soil sources. During snowmelt, the largest sources of were in the near‐surface soil in both catchments. Concentrations of increased as stream discharge increased and usually peaked before peak discharge, when shallow soil water sources made the largest contribution to stream discharge. The timing of peaks in stream concentrations was affected by antecedent moisture conditions. By elucidating the factors that affect sources and transport of N, including differences in the soil nutrient cycling and hydrological characteristics of S14 and S15, this study contributes to the overall conceptualization of release from temperate forested catchments. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Investigating Climate Change Impacts and Thresholds: An Application of the CLIMPACTS Integrated Assessment Model for New Zealand Agriculture

The determination of `critical thresholds'is an essential task for informed policydecisions on establishing greenhouse gas emissiontargets. This paper presents a framework fordetermining critical thresholds for New Zealandagriculture, focusing on three agriculturalcrops – kiwifruit, grain maize, andPaspalum dilatatum – as exemplars for the fruitproduction, arable cropping and dairy productionindustries in New Zealand. The approach is based onthe application of a country-scale, integratedassessment model, called CLIMPACTS. The CLIMPACTSsystem contains a climate change scenario generator,climate and land data, and sectoral impact models. Importantly, CLIMPACTS allows time-dependentassessments of climate change and its effects, whichfacilitates the identification and examination of thresholds, which largely relate to spatial changes, over time, in regions of economic importance for these crops. However, whether such thresholds are `critical' for New Zealand cannot currently be addressed by the CLIMPACTS model. The determination of `criticality' requires a fully integrated assessment in which the social, economic, and environmental costs and risks associated with these thresholds are comprehensively evaluated.     

The importance of submerged macrophytes as indicators for the nutrient concentration in a small stream (Rotbach, Bavaria)

The relationship between the macrophyte vegetation and the nutrient concentration of the water and the sediment of a stream was studied. The small stream is fed by calcareous groundwater. The alteration in the macrophyte vegetation of the stream Rotbach from oligotrophic community towards more eutrophic species is associated with an increasing concentration of nutrients in the sediment. Particularly the concentration of SRP-P in the interstitial water changes significantly.

In terms of the macrophyte vegetation the stream can be divided into 4 floristic zones, A-D. The zones are labelled in a sequence according to their sediment's nutrient content. The chemical analyses of the water and the sediment show the highest concentrations in zone D. It is characterized by the presence of Zannichellia palustris. The zones A-C have almost the same very low nutrient concentration in the water but show a different content of nutrients in the sediment, particularly of the SRP-P in the interstitial water. Zone A which is dominated by Chara hispida shows the lowest SRP-P in the interstitial water. Within zone B which is characterized by Mentha aquatica and Nasturtium officinale and even more in zone C where Chara hispida is less abundant and Elodea canadensis occurs, the SRP-P content is elevated.

The nutrient concentration in the sediment is clearly associated with changes in the macrophyte vegetation of the stream Rotbach.     

A comparative study of winds and tidal variability in the mesosphere/lower-thermosphere region over Bulgaria and the UK

Meteor radars located in Bulgaria and the UK have been used to simultaneously measure winds in the mesosphere/lower-thermosphere region near 42.5°N, 26.6°E and 54.5°N, 3.9°W, respectively, over the period January 1991 to June 1992. The data have been used to investigate planetary waves and diurnal and semidiurnal tidal variability over the two sites. The tidal amplitudes at each site exhibit fluctuations as large as 300% on time scales from a few days to the intra-seasonal, with most of the variability being at intra-seasonal scales. Spectral and cross-wavelet analysis reveals closely related tidal variability over the two sites, indicating that the variability occurs on spatial scales large compared to the spacing between the two radars. In some, but not all, cases, periodic variability of tidal amplitudes is associated with simultaneously present planetary waves of similar period, suggesting the variability is a consequence of non-linear interaction. Calculation of the zonal wave number of a number of large amplitude planetary waves suggests that during summer 1991 the 2-day wave had a zonal wave number of 3, but that during January/February 1991 it had a zonal wave number of 4.     

The effect of climate change on extreme waves in front of the Dutch coast

Coastal safety may be influenced by climate change, as changes in wave conditions (height, period, direction) may increase the vulnerability of dunes and other coastal defences. Dune erosion depends on mean water level, storm surge height and wave conditions. In this paper, we investigate the change in wave conditions in the North Sea in a changing climate. Until now, the effect of climate change on annual maximum wave conditions has been investigated, while events with higher return periods are actually most damaging for the coast (e.g. severe dune erosion). Here, we use the 17-member Ensemble SimulationS of Extreme weather under Non-linear Climate changeE (ESSENCE) change of climate change simulations, to analyse A1b-induced changes in the mean wave climate, the annual maxima and wave conditions with return periods of up to 1:10,000?years in front of the Dutch coast. The mean wave climate is not projected to differ between 1961–1990 and 2071–2100, with both wave height (H _s) and wave period (T _m) remaining unaltered. In the annual maximum conditions, a decrease is projected; especially, the annual T _m maximum decreases significantly by 0.3 to 0.6?s over the whole study area. Furthermore, we find that the direction of the annual maximum wave conditions shifts from north and north-west to west and south-west for both H _s and T _m. This is induced by a similar shift in the direction of the extreme wind speeds. Despite the decrease in annual maximum conditions, the return H _s and T _m are not projected to change significantly as a result of climate change in front of the Dutch coast for the period 2071–2100 relative to 1961–1990.     

What is groundwater and what does this mean to fauna? - An opinion

Many subsurface waters are considered groundwater but are influenced in shallow depths by hyporheic, parafluvial and/or soil interception water to such a degree that groundwater fauna (stygofauna) communities may be significantly altered. Recharge, even if spatially and temporally distinct, delivers input of dissolved oxygen, organic matter (OM), and nutrients that caters sustainably for ubiquists such as stygophiles and hyporheic fauna, but renders the life of uncompetitive stygobites difficult or impossible. The impact of recharge at shallow groundwater thus needs to be taken into account when determining groundwater fauna reference communities and when evaluating monitoring studies.One of the main characteristics of groundwater is low OM concentration. In contrast, high OM concentrations are typical of hyporheic or parafluvial waters, which are enriched by OM from the river, the riparian soils and from interflow, and which contribute significantly to river OM balance. Consequently, for ecological studies on subsurface waters, both the origin of the water and OM, and the intensity of surface water interactions should be considered. Here, we discuss how groundwater spatial and temporal heterogeneity translates into faunal distribution patterns. In terms of the origin of water and OM, and from an ecological point of view, we need to distinguish between (i) shallow groundwater characterized by infiltrating precipitation and soil recharge, (ii) shallow groundwater interacting with surface water bodies such as continuously flowing and ephemeral streams and rivers, and (iii) “old” groundwater which has no recent connections to the surface and is thus largely secluded from input of nutrients and carbon. Water in the first two groups is characterized by high amounts of OM of varying quality, while water in the third group is characterized by low amounts of low quality OM. Consequently, stygophiles dominate in groups 1 and 2, with hyporheic fauna taking up a considerable proportion in group 2, while stygobites only dominate in group 3. Thus, for studies aiming to assess impacts on groundwater, only sampling sites of the third group should be used for reference sites as these are the most likely sites to have little surface impact and a stygofauna representative of the deeper aquifer.     

Quasi-stars: accreting black holes inside massive envelopes

We study the structure and evolution of 'quasi-stars', accreting black holes embedded within massive hydrostatic gaseous envelopes. These configurations may model the early growth of supermassive black hole seeds. The accretion rate on to the black hole adjusts so that the luminosity carried by the convective envelope equals the Eddington limit for the total mass,   M _*+ M _BH≈ M _*  . This greatly exceeds the Eddington limit for the black hole mass alone, leading to rapid growth of the black hole. We use analytic models and numerical stellar structure calculations to study the structure and evolution of quasi-stars. We show that the photospheric temperature of the envelope scales as   T _ph∝ M ^−2/5_BH M ^7/20_*  , and decreases with time while the black hole mass increases. Once   T _ph < 10⁴ K  , the photospheric opacity drops precipitously and T _ph hits a limiting value, analogous to the Hayashi track for red giants and protostars, below which no hydrostatic solution for the convective envelope exists. For metal-free (Population III) opacities, this limiting temperature is approximately 4000 K. After a quasi-star reaches this limiting temperature, it is rapidly dispersed by radiation pressure. We find that black hole seeds with masses between 10³ and  10⁴ M_⊙  could form via this mechanism in less than a few Myr.     

Discrete‐Storm Water‐Table Fluctuation Method to Estimate Episodic Recharge

We have developed a method to identify and quantify recharge episodes, along with their associated infiltration‐related inputs, by a consistent, systematic procedure. Our algorithm partitions a time series of water levels into discrete recharge episodes and intervals of no episodic recharge. It correlates each recharge episode with a specific interval of rainfall, so storm characteristics such as intensity and duration can be associated with the amount of recharge that results. To be useful in humid climates, the algorithm evaluates the separability of events, so that those whose recharge cannot be associated with a single storm can be appropriately lumped together. Elements of this method that are subject to subjectivity in the application of hydrologic judgment are values of lag time, fluctuation tolerance, and master recession parameters. Because these are determined once for a given site, they do not contribute subjective influences affecting episode‐to‐episode comparisons. By centralizing the elements requiring scientific judgment, our method facilitates such comparisons by keeping the most subjective elements openly apparent, making it easy to maintain consistency. If applied to a period of data long enough to include recharge episodes with broadly diverse characteristics, the method has value for predicting how climatic alterations in the distribution of storm intensities and seasonal duration may affect recharge.     

Geophysical and Hydrologic Studies of Lake Seepage Variability

Variations in lake seepage were studied along a 130 m shoreline of Mirror Lake NH. Seepage was downward from the lake to groundwater; rates measured from 28 seepage meters varied from 0 to ?282 cm/d. Causes of this variation were investigated using electrical resistivity surveys and lakebed sediment characterization. Two‐dimensional (2D) resistivity surveys showed a transition in lakebed sediments from outwash to till that correlated with high‐ and low‐seepage zones, respectively. However, the 2D survey was not able to predict smaller scale variations within these facies. In the outwash, fast seepage was associated with permeability variations in a thin (2 cm) layer of sediments at the top of the lakebed. In the till, where seepage was slower than that in the outwash, a three‐dimensional resistivity survey mapped a point of high seepage associated with heterogeneity (lower resistivity and likely higher permeability). Points of focused flow across the sediment–water interface are difficult to detect and can transmit a large percentage of total exchange. Using a series of electrical resistivity geophysical methods in combination with hydrologic data to locate heterogeneities that affect seepage rates can help guide seepage meter placement. Improving our understanding of the causes and types of heterogeneity in lake seepage will provide better data for lake budgets and prediction of mass transfer of solutes or contaminants between lakes and groundwater.