Adaptation,mitigation, and their disharmonious discontents: an essay

The frequently heard call to harmonize adaptation and mitigation policies is well intended and many opportunities exist to realize co-benefits by designing and implementing both in mutually supportive ways. But critical tradeoffs (inadequate conditions, competition among means for implementation, and negative consequences of pursuing both simultaneously) also exist, along with policy disconnects that are shaped by history, sequencing, scale, contextual variables, and controversial climate discourses in the public. To ignore these issues can be expected to undermine a more comprehensive, better integrated climate risk management portfolio. The paper discusses various implications of these tradeoffs between adaptation and mitigation for science and policy.     

Potential climatic transitions with profound impact on Europe

We discuss potential transitions of six climatic subsystems with large-scale impact on Europe, sometimes denoted as tipping elements. These are the ice sheets on Greenland and West Antarctica, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, Arctic sea ice, Alpine glaciers and northern hemisphere stratospheric ozone. Each system is represented by co-authors actively publishing in the corresponding field. For each subsystem we summarize the mechanism of a potential transition in a warmer climate along with its impact on Europe and assess the likelihood for such a transition based on published scientific literature. As a summary, the ‘tipping’ potential for each system is provided as a function of global mean temperature increase which required some subjective interpretation of scientific facts by the authors and should be considered as a snapshot of our current understanding.     

Source and origin of active and fossil thermal spring systems,northern Upper Rhine Graben,Germany

Thermal water samples and related young and fossil mineralization from a geothermal system at the northern margin of the Upper Rhine Graben have been investigated by combining hydrochemistry with stable and Sr isotope geochemistry. Actively discharging thermal springs and mineralization are present in a structural zone that extends over at least 60 km along strike, with two of the main centers of hydrothermal activity being Wiesbaden and Bad Nauheim. This setting provides the rare opportunity to link the chemistry and isotopic signatures of modern thermal waters directly with fossil mineralization dating back to at least 500–800 ka. The fossil thermal spring mineralization can be classified into two major types: barite-(pyrite) fracture filling associated with laterally-extensive silicification; and barite, goethite and silica impregnation mineralization in Tertiary sediments. Additionally, carbonatic sinters occur around active springs. Strontium isotope and trace element data suggest that mixing of a hot (>100 °C), deep-sourced thermal water with cooler groundwater from shallow aquifers is responsible for present-day thermal spring discharge and fossil mineralization. The correlation between both Sr and S isotope ratios and the elevation of the barite mineralization relative to the present-day water table in Wiesbaden is explained by mixing of deep-sourced thermal water having high ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and low δ³⁴S with shallow groundwater of lower ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and higher δ³⁴S. The Sr isotope data demonstrate that the hot thermal waters originate from an aquifer in the Variscan crystalline basement at depths of 3–5 km. The S isotope data show that impregnation-type mineralization is strongly influenced by mixing with SO₄ that has high δ³⁴S values. The fracture style mineralization formed by cooling of the thermal waters, whereas impregnation-type mineralization precipitated by mixing with SO₄-rich groundwater percolating through the sediments.     

Magmatic-dominated fluid evolution in the Jurassic Nambija gold skarn deposits (southeastern Ecuador)

The Jurassic (approximately 145 Ma) Nambija oxidized gold skarns are hosted by the Triassic volcanosedimentary Piuntza unit in the sub-Andean zone of southeastern Ecuador. The skarns consist dominantly of granditic garnet (Ad_20–98) with subordinate pyroxene (Di_46–92Hd_17–42Jo_0–19) and epidote and are spatially associated with porphyritic quartz-diorite to granodiorite intrusions. Endoskarn is developed at the intrusion margins and grades inwards into a potassic alteration zone. Exoskarn has an outer K- and Na-enriched zone in the volcanosedimentary unit. Gold mineralization is associated with the weakly developed retrograde alteration of the exoskarn and occurs mainly in sulfide-poor vugs and milky quartz veins and veinlets in association with hematite. Fluid inclusion data for the main part of the prograde stage indicate the coexistence of high-temperature (500°C to >600°C), high-salinity (up to 65 wt.% eq. NaCl), and moderate- to low-salinity aqueous-carbonic fluids interpreted to have been trapped at pressures around 100–120 MPa, corresponding to about 4-km depth. Lower-temperature (510–300°C) and moderate- to low-salinity (23–2 wt.% eq. NaCl) aqueous fluids are recorded in garnet and epidote of the end of the prograde stage. The microthermometric data (Th from 513°C to 318°C and salinity from 1.0 to 23 wt.% eq. NaCl) and δ¹⁸O values between 6.2‰ and 11.5‰ for gold-bearing milky quartz from the retrograde stage suggest that the ore-forming fluid was dominantly magmatic. Pressures during the early retrograde stage were in the range of 50–100 MPa, in line with the evidence for CO₂ effervescence and probable local boiling. The dominance of magmatic low-saline to moderately saline oxidizing fluids during the retrograde stage is consistent with the depth of the skarn system, which could have delayed the ingression of external fluids until relatively low temperatures were reached. The resulting low water-to-rock ratios explain the weak retrograde alteration and the compositional variability of chlorite, essentially controlled by host rock compositions. Gold was precipitated at this stage as a result of cooling and pH increase related to CO₂ effervescence, which both result in destabilization of gold-bearing chloride complexes. Significant ingression of external fluids took place after gold deposition only, as recorded by δ¹⁸O values of 0.4‰ to 6.2‰ for fluids depositing quartz (below 350°C) in sulfide-rich barren veins. Low-temperature (<300°C) meteoric fluids (δ¹⁸O_water between −10.0‰ and −2.0‰) are responsible for the precipitation of late comb quartz and calcite in cavities and veins and indicate mixing with cooler fluids of higher salinities (about 100°C and 25 wt.% eq. NaCl). The latter are similar to low-temperature fluids (202–74.5°C) with δ¹⁸O values of −0.5‰ to 3.1‰ and salinities in the range of 21.1 to 17.3 wt.% eq. CaCl₂, trapped in calcite of late veins and interpreted as basinal brines. Nambija represents a deep equivalent of the oxidized gold skarn class, the presence of CO₂ in the fluids being partly a consequence of the relatively deep setting at about 4-km depth. As in other Au-bearing skarn deposits, not only the prograde stage but also the gold-precipitating retrograde stage is dominated by fluids of magmatic origin.     

Distribution of sedimentary organic matter in Anisian carbonate series of S Poland: evidence of third-order sea-level fluctuations

The stratigraphic distribution of sedimentary organic matter in Anisian carbonate series of southern Poland is studied with respect to relative sea-level fluctuations. Palynofacies patterns clearly reflect transgressive–regressive trends that are interpreted in terms of third-order cyclicity. Major flooding phases are detected by maximum abundance of marine plankton in the upper Bithynian and Pelsonian. Transgressive and highstand deposits are recognized by changes in the terrestrial input of organic particles and the relative percentages and diversity of the plankton group. The palynological data support the sequence stratigraphic interpretation based on sedimentological features and geochemical signatures. The corresponding eustatic signals of sedimentary and organic facies are discussed. The study highlights the potential of palynofacies analysis for sequence stratigraphical interpretation.     

The significance of phenocryst diversity in tephra from recent eruptions at Popocatepetl volcano (central Mexico)

Tephra lapilli from six explosive eruptions between April 1996 and February 1998 at Popocatepetl volcano (=Popo) in central Mexico have been studied to investigate the causes of magma diversification in thick-crusted volcanic arcs. The tephra particles are sparsely porphyritic (≈5 vol%) magnesian andesites (SiO₂=58–65 wt%; MgO=2.6–5.9 wt%) that contain phenocrysts of NiO-rich (up to 0.67 wt% NiO) magnesian olivine (Fo_89–91 cores) with inclusions of Cr-spinel (cr#=59–70), orthopyroxene (mg#=63–76), clinopyroxene (mg#=68–86), intermediate to sodic plagioclase (An_33–66), and traces of amphibole. Major and trace element systematics indicate magma mixing. The liquid mg#_melt ratios inferred from the ferromagnesian phenocrysts suggest the existence of a mafic (mg#_melt ≈ 72–76) and an evolved component magma (mg#_melt ≈ 35–40). These component magmas form a hybrid magnesian andesite with an intermediate range of mg#_melt=50–72. The mafic end member (mg#_melt ≈ 72–75) is saturated with olivine and spinel and crystallizes at temperatures ≈1170–1085 °C with oxygen fugacities close to the fayalite–magnetite–quartz buffer and elevated water contents of several wt% H₂O. A likely location of crystallization is at lower crustal levels, possibly at the Moho. Olivine is followed by high-mg# clinopyroxene which could start to crystallize during magma ascent. At depths of ≈4 to 13 km, the mafic magma mixes with an evolved composition containing low-mg# clino- and orthopyroxene and plagioclase at a temperature of ≈950 °C. The repetitive ascent of batches of mafic magmas spaced days to weeks apart implies multiple episodes of crystallization and magma mixing. The tephra is similar to the Popo magnesian andesites, suggesting similar generic processes for the common lavas of the volcano. The advantage of the tephra is that it can be used to reconstruct the composition of the mafic magma. Building on the elemental systematics of the tephra and a comparison to the near-primary basalts from the surrounding monogenetic fields, we infer that the Popo mafic end member is a magnesian andesite with variable, but high SiO₂ contents of ≈55–62 wt% and near-primary characteristics, such as high-mg#_melt of 72–75, FeO*/MgO ratios <1 (if extrapolated to an mg#_melt of 72–75), and high Ni contents (=200 ppm Ni). This model implies that the typical elemental signature of the Popo andesites, such as the low CaO, Al₂O₃, FeO*, high Na₂O contents, and the depletion in high-field strength elements (e.g., P, Zr, Ti), are mantle source phenomena. Thus, determining the elemental budget of the magnesian andesite, as it is prior to the modifications by crustal differentiation, is central to quantifying the subcrustal mass fluxes beneath Popo. Received: 13 December 1999 / Accepted: 11 August 2000     

Variation in Lake Baikal's phytoplankton distribution and fluvial input assessed by SeaWiFS satellite data

The current behaviour of selected climate proxies in Lake Baikal was assessed by remote sensing analyses of ‘Sea viewing Wide Field of view Sensor’ (SeaWiFS) satellite data. Suitable proxies include optically visible water constituents such as phytoplankton, suspended terrigenous matter and yellow substance. These limnological parameters reflect the present-day climate bioproductivity and the river discharge in the catchment area.A biological and geochemical ground truth data set for Lake Baikal was established with the help of members of the paleoclimate project ‘high-resolution CONTINENTal paleoclimate record in Lake Baikal’ (CONTINENT). For processing the SeaWiFS satellite data, the atmospheric correction was adapted to the case of Lake Baikal. Chlorophyll as a proxy for phytoplankton was quantified using global NASA ocean colour algorithms OC2 and OC4. In cases of no optical interferences by terrigenous input, the calculated chlorophyll concentrations in clear pelagic waters were within ±30% accuracy with the CONTINENT cruise data during the summers of 2001 and 2002. Within this range of accuracy, the SeaWiFS time series will be able to show the seasonal variations of chlorophyll of specified bio-optical provinces of Lake Baikal and of CONTINENT sites. In this study, the suspended matter as a proxy for the terrigenous input was calculated according to an empirical algorithm using ground truth data in the time frame of flooding events in summer 2001. The approach chosen correlates the suspended matter concentration with the remotely sensed parameter of ‘attenuation coefficient’ to account for the organic-rich terrigenous input that originates from the swampy watersheds.Seasonal and spatial information that is provided by the analyses of the SeaWiFS satellite data will assist paleoclimate researchers to interpret the autochthonous and allochthonous influences at the CONTINENT coring sites.     

Evaluating the impact of visualization of risk upon emergency route-planning

ABSTRACT

This paper reports on a controlled experiment evaluating how different cartographic representations of risk affect participants’ performance on a complex spatial decision task: route planning. The specific experimental scenario used is oriented towards emergency route-planning during flood response. The experiment compared six common abstract and metaphorical graphical symbolizations of risk. The results indicate a pattern of less-preferred graphical symbolizations associated with slower responses and lower-risk route choices. One mechanism that might explain these observed relationships would be that more complex and effortful maps promote closer attention paid by participants and lower levels of risk taking. Such user considerations have important implications for the design of maps and mapping interfaces for emergency planning and response. The data also highlights the importance of the ‘right decision, wrong outcome problem’ inherent in decision-making under uncertainty: in individual instances, more risky decisions do not always lead to worse outcomes.     

Phytoplankton response to climate changes in Lake Baikal during the Holocene and Kazantsevo Interglacials assessed from sedimentary pigments

Lake Baikal, an ancient pristine lake in Siberia, has accumulated sediment deposits that span 25 million years. These deposits have the potential to provide a long-term record of climate changes and their interaction with the ecology of the lake. In order to investigate whether sedimentary phytoplankton pigments could be used to reconstruct past changes in total phytoplankton abundance and productivity, we compared the spatial variability in sedimentary pigment distributions in Holocene cores from three separate regions of the lake; Vidrino in the south, Posolski on Selenga Delta and Continent Ridge in the north. Furthermore, we present the first continuous sedimentary pigment and organic carbon sequence of the Kazantsevo interglacial (roughly a time equivalent to the European Eemian, and Marine Isotopic Stage MIS5e) at a resolution of approximately 150 years. Results of the spatial study showed marked differences in the sediment pigment deposition. Lowest chlorophyll a plus its degradation products versus organic carbon ratios (Chlas/TOC) indicating lowest production, but highest variability with time (indicating strongest climatic oscillations) were found at Continent Ridge. The study of sedimentary pigments deposited during the last two interglacial periods at Continent Ridge showed Chlas/TOC ratios 50–1000 times higher during the Kazantsevo Interglacial compared to the glacial periods, whereas the TOC content was only five times higher, thus indicating the significance of the Chlas/TOC ratio for the reconstruction of the phytoplankton abundance and productivity. Strong oscillations occurred during the Kazantsevo Interglacial within centennial time scales. Chlorophyllb plus its degradation products provided additional information on the past development of Chlorophyceae. Highest Chlas/TOC ratios were found during the early Holocene at approximately 9 kyr BP. Indications of short phytoplankton production maxima were also found during the late Atlantic (6 kyr BP) and at the Subboreal/Subatlantic transition (3 kyr BP). From this we conclude that sedimentary chlorophyll a is a reliable indicator of phytoplanktonic response to climate changes and may serve for␣validation of future climate scenarios in continental regions.     

Assessing physical vulnerability in large cities exposed to flash floods and debris flows: the case of Arequipa (Peru)

Understanding the physical vulnerability of buildings and infrastructure to natural hazards is an essential step in risk assessment for large cities. We have interpreted high spatial resolution images, conducted field surveys, and utilized numerical simulations, in order to assess vulnerability across Arequipa, south Peru, close to the active El Misti volcano. The emphasis of this study was on flash floods and volcanic or non-volcanic hyperconcentrated flows, which recur on average every 3.5 years across the city. We utilized a geographic information system to embed vulnerability and hazard maps as a step to calculate risk for buildings and bridges along the Río Chili valley and two tributaries. A survey of ~1,000 buildings from 46 city blocks, different in age, construction materials, and land usage, provided architectural and structural characteristics. A similar survey of twenty bridges across the three valleys was based on structural, hydraulic, and strategic parameters. Interpretation of high spatial resolution (HSR) satellite images, which allows for quick identification of approximately 69 % of the structural building types, effectively supplemented field data collection. Mapping vulnerability has led us to pinpoint strategic areas in case of future destructive floods or flows. Calculated vulnerability is high if we examine structural criteria alone. We further consider physical setting with the most vulnerable city blocks located on the lowermost terraces, perpendicular or oblique to the flow path. Statistical analysis conducted on 3,015 city blocks, considering nine criteria identified from HSR images, indicated that building-type heterogeneity and the shape of the city blocks, along with building and street network density, are the most discriminant parameters for assessing vulnerability.