Projections of climate change impacts on central America tropical rainforest

Tropical rainforest plays an important role in the global carbon cycle, accounting for a large part of global net primary productivity and contributing to CO₂ sequestration. The objective of this work is to simulate potential changes in the rainforest biome in Central America subject to anthropogenic climate change under two emissions scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The use of a dynamic vegetation model and climate change scenarios is an approach to investigate, assess or anticipate how biomes respond to climate change. In this work, the Inland dynamic vegetation model was driven by the Eta regional climate model simulations. These simulations accept boundary conditions from HadGEM2-ES runs in the two emissions scenarios. The possible consequences of regional climate change on vegetation properties, such as biomass, net primary production and changes in forest extent and distribution, were investigated. The Inland model projections show reductions in tropical forest cover in both scenarios. The reduction of tropical forest cover is greater in RCP8.5. The Inland model projects biomass increases where tropical forest remains due to the CO₂ fertilization effect. The future distribution of predominant vegetation shows that some areas of tropical rainforest in Central America are replaced by savannah and grassland in RCP4.5. Inland projections under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 show a net primary productivity reduction trend due to significant tropical forest reduction, temperature increase, precipitation reduction and dry spell increments, despite the biomass increases in some areas of Costa Rica and Panama. This study may provide guidance to adaptation studies of climate change impacts on the tropical rainforests in Central America.     

Personality type differences between Ph.D. climate researchers and the general public: implications for effective communication

Effectively communicating the complexity of climate change to the public is an important goal for the climate change research community, particularly for those of us who receive public funds. The challenge of communicating the science of climate change will be reduced if climate change researchers consider the links between personality types, communication tendencies and learning preferences. Jungian personality type is one of many factors related to an individual’s preferred style of taking in and processing information, i.e., preferred communication style. In this paper, we demonstrate that the Jungian personality type profile of interdisciplinary, early career climate researchers is significantly different from that of the general population in the United States. In particular, Ph.D. climate researchers tend towards Intuition and focus on theories and the “big picture”, while the U.S. general population tends towards Sensing and focuses on concrete examples and experience. There are other differences as well in the way the general public as a group prefers to take in information, make decisions, and deal with the outer world, compared with the average interdisciplinary climate scientist. These differences have important implications for communication between these two groups. We suggest that climate researchers will be more effective in conveying their messages if they are aware of their own personality type and potential differences in preferred learning and communication styles between themselves and the general public (and other specific audiences), and use this knowledge to more effectively target their audience.     

Impact of the Montreal protocol and its amendments on the rate of change of global radiative forcing

Increases in chlorinated and brominated halocarbons are believed to be responsible for the depletion of stratospheric ozone observed over much of the globe in the past decade or so. Ozone depletion is in turn believed to lead to a negative radiative forcing, tending to cool the stratosphere and the surface. We show that the increasing atmospheric concentrations of ozone-depleting halocarbons and onset of related ozone depletion likely led to a negative forcing of the climate system in the 1980s that slowed significantly the rate of change of total anthropogenic radiative forcing due to the combined effect of all greenhouse gases over that decade. Within the next decade, emissions of these halocarbons are expected to rapidly decrease, with corresponding impacts on ozone and radiative forcing. As the emissions of ozone-depleting gases are reduced and eventually phased out, the rate of ozone depletion is expected to decrease and eventually reverse. All other things being equal, we show that the change from deepening ozone depletion in the 1980s to ozone increases in the future should lead to a pronounced increase in the decadal rate of change of anthropogenic greenhouse forcing of the next few decades, perhaps to levels unprecedented in this century.     

Refractory Black Carbon Results and a Method Comparison between Solid-state Cutting and Continuous Melting Sampling of a West Antarctic Snow and Firn Core

This work presents the refractory black carbon(rBC)results of a snow and firn core drilled in West Antarctica(79°55'34.6"S,94°21'13.3"W)during the 2014?15 austral summer,collected by Brazilian researchers as part of the First Brazilian West Antarctic Ice Sheet Traverse.The core was drilled to a depth of 20 m,and we present the results of the first 8 m by comparing two subsampling methods—solid-state cutting and continuous melting—both with discrete sampling.The core was analyzed at the Department of Geological Sciences,Central Washington University(CWU),WA,USA,using a single particle soot photometer(SP2)coupled to a CETAC Marin-5 nebulizer.The continuous melting system was recently assembled at CWU and these are its first results.We also present experimental results regarding SP2 reproducibility,indicating that sample concentration has a greater influence than the analysis time on the reproducibility for low rBC concentrations,like those found in the Antarctic core.Dating was carried out using mainly the rBC variation and sulfur,sodium and strontium as secondary parameters,giving the core 17 years(1998?2014).The data show a well-defined seasonality of rBC concentrations for these first meters,with geometric mean summer/fall concentrations of 0.016μg L^?1 and geometric mean winter/spring concentrations of 0.063μg L^?1.The annual rBC concentration geometric mean was 0.029μg L^?1(the lowest of all rBC cores in Antarctica referenced in this work),while the annual rBC flux was 6.1μg m^?2 yr^?1(the lowest flux in West Antarctica records so far).     

Natural Attenuation of Perchlorate in Denitrified Groundwater

Monitoring of a well‐defined septic system groundwater plume and groundwater discharging to two urban streams located in southern Ontario, Canada, provided evidence of natural attenuation of background low level (ng/L) perchlorate (ClO₄^?) under denitrifying conditions in the field. The septic system site at Long Point contains ClO₄^? from a mix of waste water, atmospheric deposition, and periodic use of fireworks, while the nitrate plume indicates active denitrification. Plume nitrate (NO₃^?‐N) concentrations of up to 103 mg/L declined with depth and downgradient of the tile bed due to denitrification and anammox activity, and the plume was almost completely denitrified beyond 35 m from the tile bed. The ClO₄^? natural attenuation occurs at the site only when NO₃^?‐N concentrations are <0.3 mg/L, after which ClO₄^? concentrations decline abruptly from 187 ± 202 to 11 ± 15 ng/L. A similar pattern between NO₃^?‐N and ClO₄^? was found in groundwater discharging to the two urban streams. These findings suggest that natural attenuation (i.e., biodegradation) of ClO₄^? may be commonplace in denitrified aquifers with appropriate electron donors present, and thus, should be considered as a remediation option for ClO₄^? contaminated groundwater.     

Restrictions on Deep Flow Across the Shelf-break and the Role of Submarine Canyons in Facilitating such Flow

The shelf-break acts as a separator between the coastal ocean and the open ocean. Circulation (particularly deep near-bottom flow) is restricted from crossing the bathymetry. Eddies become elongated in the region of the shelf-break restricting exchange. An estimate of the horizontal eddy diffusivity over the shelf-break of less than 10m²s^-1 is found from a numerical model. Various mechanisms are responsible for the weak cross-isobath flow that does occur. One is the increase of the Rossby number over small-scale topography such as submarine canyons. Along-shore flow (in the direction opposite to Kelvin wave propagation) generates upwelling through submarine canyons. A review of upwelling through submarine canyons is given. The deep cross-shelf flow generated by the canyons is shown to be as significant as the wind-driven upwelling in some regions. Examples for the reduction of flow across the shelf-break and for upwelling through canyons are taken from the West Coast of Vancouver Island.     

Close up observation and inversion of low-altitude ENA emissions during a substorm event

During a series of substorm events on November 12 2004, the Neutral Atom Detector Unit(NUADU) flying onboard the TC-2 spacecraft observed, close to perigee, bright low-altitude Energetic Neutral Atom(ENA) emissions from both north and south poles. Through utilizing high temporal and spatial resolution data inversion techniques we present here a global view the associated processes of energetic ion deposition and injection at the uniquely high temporal resolution of a few minutes. It is demonstrated that the ENA emissions observed came mainly from the, low-altitude, high magnetic latitude polar region. Since precipitating ions follow magnetic field lines and have more chance to produce ENA emissions through charge exchange there.Therefore, the employment of a low-orbit satellite to record at high temporal and spatial resolution ENA image data is inferred to be the best way to monitor those dynamic ring current variations that occur during geomagnetic activity.     

Fluvial dynamics and 14C-10Be disequilibrium on the Bolivian Altiplano

Determining sediment transfer times is key to understanding source-to-sink dynamics and the transmission of environmental signals through the fluvial system. Previous work on the Bolivian Altiplano applied the in situ cosmogenic ¹⁴C-¹⁰Be-chronometer to river sands and proposed sediment storage times of ~10–20 kyr in four catchments southeast of Lake Titicaca. However, the fidelity of those results hinges upon isotopic steady-state within sediment supplied from the source area. With the aim of independently quantifying sediment storage times and testing the ¹⁴C-¹⁰Be steady-state assumption, we dated sediment storage units within one of the previously investigated catchments using radiocarbon dating, cosmogenic ¹⁰Be-²⁶Al isochron burial dating, and ¹⁰Be-²⁶Al depth-profile dating. Palaeosurfaces appear to preserve remnants of a former fluvial system, which has undergone drainage reversal, reduction in catchment area, and local isostatic uplift since ~2.8 Ma. From alluvium mantling the palaeosurfaces we gained a deposition age of ~580 ka, while lower down fluvial terraces yielded ≤34 ka, and floodplains ~3–1 ka. Owing to restricted channel connectivity with the terraces and palaeosurfaces, the main source of channel sediment is via reworking of the late Holocene floodplain. Yet modelling a set of feasible scenarios reveals that floodplain storage and burial depth are incompatible with the ¹⁴C-¹⁰Be disequilibrium measured in the channel. Instead we propose that the ¹⁴C-¹⁰Be offset results from: (i) non-uniform erosion whereby deep gullies supply hillslope-derived debris; and/or (ii) holocene landscape transience associated with climate or human impact. The reliability of the ¹⁴C-¹⁰Be chronometer vitally depends upon careful evaluation of sources of isotopic disequilibrium in a wide range of depositional and erosional landforms in the landscape. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.