GI Science, Disasters, and Emergency Management

Societal responses to disasters begin with the initial post‐event rescue and relief operations, followed by recovery, reconstruction, and then transcend into mitigation actions including the development of pre‐impact preparedness measures, collectively known as the emergency response cycle. This paper highlights some of the applications of GI Science to the emergency response cycle, citing examples from natural hazards and from the World Trade Center disaster on 11th September 2001. More importantly, the paper describes some of the constraints on the utilization of GI Science by the practitioner community: understandable user interfaces; data quantity, quality, and integration; real‐time data and information. Finally, the paper suggests some important GI Science research areas based on the needs of the disasters and emergency management research and practitioner communities.     

Replacing carbon lost from forests: an assessment of insurance, reserves, and expiring credits

Concern over the “non-permanence” or reversibility of carbon sequestration projects has been prominent in discussions over how to develop guidelines for forest project investments under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the UNFCCC Kyoto Protocol. Accordingly, a number of approaches have been proposed that aim to help ensure that parties do not receive credit for carbon that is lost before project obligations are fulfilled. These approaches include forest carbon insurance, land reserves, and issuance of expiring credits. The potential costs of each of these different approaches are evaluated using a range of assumptions about project length, risk and discount rate, and a comparison of costs is ventured based on the estimated reduction in value of these credits compared with uninsured, and permanent credits. Obstacles to participation in the different approaches are discussed related to problems of long-term commitments, project scale, rising replacement costs, and low credit value. It is concluded that a system of expiring credits, which could be coupled with insurance or reserves, could guarantee obligations that span time-scales longer than that of conventional insurance policies while maintaining incentives for long-term sequestration.     

Trends In U.S. Hazardous Materials Transportation Spills

This paper examines historical and spatial trends in hazardous materials transportation spills from 1971 to 1991. While the number of spills Inc.reased steadily during the 1970s, peaking in 1978–1979, there has been a decline in frequency sInc.e then largely due to modifications in reporting. Monetary damages have the opposite temporal pattern, with major Inc.reases recorded from 1982 onward. Death and injury statistics are more variable. Spatially, accidents are more prevalent in the Rust Belt extending from the Northeast corridor westward to the Great Lakes states, as well as in the Southeast. The greatest potential risk to the public is found in smaller, more densely populated industrial states such as New Jersey, Delaware, and Maryland. The spatial distribution, however, has not changed. Potential risk sources (e.g., chemical industry, number of hazardous waste facilities, number of railroad miles) are the best predictors of hazmat Inc.ident frequency. Mitigation efforts (statewide regulatory and/or management policies) also help explain the variability in hazmat Inc.idents.     

Mineral dissolution in the Cape Cod aquifer, Massachusetts, USA: I . Reaction stoichiometry and impact of accessory feldspar and glauconite on strontium isotopes, solute concentrations, and REY distribution

To compare relative reaction rates of mineral dissolution in a mineralogically simple groundwater aquifer, we studied the controls on solute concentrations, Sr isotopes, and rare earth element and yttrium (REY) systematics in the Cape Cod aquifer. This aquifer comprises mostly carbonate-free Pleistocene sediments that are about 90% quartz with minor K-feldspar, plagioclase, glauconite, and Fe-oxides. Silica concentrations and pH in the groundwater increase systematically with increasing depth, while Sr isotopic ratios decrease. No clear relationship between ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and Sr concentration is observed. At all depths, the ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio of the groundwater is considerably lower than the Sr isotopic ratio of the bulk sediment or its K-feldspar component, but similar to that of a plagioclase-rich accessory separate obtained from the sediment. The Si-⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr-depth relationships are consistent with dissolution of accessory plagioclase. In addition, solutes such as Sr, Ca, and particularly K show concentration spikes superimposed on their respective general trends. The K-Sr-⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr systematics suggests that accessory glauconite is another major solute source to Cape Cod groundwater. Although the authigenic glauconite in the Cape Cod sediment is rich in Rb, it is low in in-grown radiogenic ⁸⁷Sr because of its young Pleistocene age. The low ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios are consistent with equilibration of glauconite with seawater. The impact of glauconite is inferred to vary due to its variable abundance in the sediments. In the Cape Cod groundwater, the variation of REY concentrations with sampling depth resembles that of K and Rb, but differs from that of Ca and Sr. Shale-normalized REY patterns are light REY depleted, show negative Ce anomalies and super-chondritic Y/Ho ratios, but no Eu anomalies. REY input from feldspar, therefore, is insignificant compared to input from a K-Rb-bearing phase, inferred to be glauconite. These results emphasize that interpretation of groundwater chemistry, even in relatively simple aquifers, may be complicated by solute contributions from “exotic” accessory minerals such as glauconite. To detect such peculiarities, groundwater studies should combine the study of elemental concentration and isotopic composition of several solutes that show different geochemical behavior.     

Estimating severity of liquefaction-induced damage near foundation

An empirical procedure for estimating the severity of liquefaction-induced ground damage at or near foundations of existing buildings is established. The procedure is based on an examination of 30 case histories from recent earthquakes. The data for these case histories consist of observations of the damage that resulted from liquefaction, and the subsurface soil conditions as revealed by cone penetration tests. These field observations are used to classify these cases into one of three damaging effect categories, ‘no damage’, ‘minor to moderate damage’, and ‘major damage’. The potential for liquefaction-induced ground failure at each site is calculated and expressed as the probability of ground failure. The relationship between the probability of ground failure and the damage class is established, which allows for the evaluation of the severity of liquefaction-induced ground damage at or near foundations. The procedure presented herein represents a significant attempt to address the issue of liquefaction effect. Caution must be exercised, however, when using the proposed model and procedure for estimating liquefaction damage severity, because they are developed based on limited number of case histories.     

Production of a molybdophore during metal-targeted dissolution of silicates by soil bacteria

Although many bioessential metals are scarce in natural water and rock systems, microbial secretion of high-affinity ligands for metal extraction from solid phases has only been documented for Fe. However, we have discovered that Mo is extracted from a silicate by a high-affinity ligand (a possible “molybdophore”) secreted by an N₂-fixing soil bacterium. The putative molybdophore, aminochelin, is secreted as a siderophore under Fe-depleted conditions, but is also secreted under Fe-sufficient, Mo-depleted conditions. Presumably, molybdophore production facilitates uptake of Mo for use in Mo enzymes. In contrast, an Fe-requiring soil bacterium without a special Mo requirement only enhances the release of Fe from the silicate. Fractionation of Mo stable isotopes during uptake to cells may provide a “fingerprint” for the importance of chelating ligands in such systems. Many such metal-specific ligands secreted by prokaryotes for extraction of bioessential metals, their effects on Earth materials, and their possible utility in the recovery of economic metals remain to be discovered.     

Strain localization as a key to reconciling experimentally derived flow-law data with dynamic models of continental collision

Published strength profiles predict strength discontinuities within and/or at the base of continental crust during compression. We use finite element models to investigate the effect of strength discontinuities on continental collision dynamics. The style of deformation in model crust during continued subduction of underlying mantle lithosphere is controlled by: (1) experimental flow-law data; (2) the crustal geotherm; (3) strain localization by erosion; (4) strain-softening and other localization effects. In the absence of erosion and other factors causing strain localization, numerical models with typical geothermal gradients and frictional/ductile rheologies predict diffuse crustal deformation with whole-scale detachment of crust from mantle lithosphere. This prediction is at odds with earlier model studies that only considered frictional crustal rheologies and showed asymmetric, focused crustal deformation. Without localization, model deformation is not consistent with that observed in small collisional orogens such as the Swiss Alps. This suggests that strain localization by a combination of erosion and rheological effects such as strain softening must play a major role in focusing deformation, and that strength profiles derived under constant strain rates and uniform material properties cannot be used to infer crustal strength during collision dynamics.