Cyclone Frame Prediction by Gaussian Mixture Modeling of the Three Penultimate Time-Lapse Frames

A fast cyclone frame prediction is proposed in this paper that fits a Gaussian Mixture model on the spatio-temporal data extracted from the three penultimate time-lapse frames, prior to fuzzy regression. Unlike the previous work in Verma and Pal (In: Applied Imagery Pattern Recognition Workshop (AIPR), pp. 1–8, 2010) that models the entire history on a per pixel basis, a single Gaussian mixture is used for fitting the spatio-temporal data within the time-span of the last three frames, making the process faster and more accurate. The increase in accuracy is attributed to the fact that cyclones evolve over time and thus the recent frames give a more meaningful insight into the predictions for the next frame. The number of components in the Gaussian mixture is determined from the occurrence of equally likely modes that correspond to high entropy peaks. Our results on satellite videos of recent cyclones that hit the Indian seas show a high accuracy of frame prediction.     

GI Science, Disasters, and Emergency Management

Societal responses to disasters begin with the initial post‐event rescue and relief operations, followed by recovery, reconstruction, and then transcend into mitigation actions including the development of pre‐impact preparedness measures, collectively known as the emergency response cycle. This paper highlights some of the applications of GI Science to the emergency response cycle, citing examples from natural hazards and from the World Trade Center disaster on 11th September 2001. More importantly, the paper describes some of the constraints on the utilization of GI Science by the practitioner community: understandable user interfaces; data quantity, quality, and integration; real‐time data and information. Finally, the paper suggests some important GI Science research areas based on the needs of the disasters and emergency management research and practitioner communities.     

Environmental oxidation rate of manganese(II): bacterial catalysis

A simple mass balance for dissolved manganese(II) in waters containing low levels of oxygen in Saanich Inlet indicates that the residence time for Mn(II) removal to the solid phase is on the order of a few days. The average oxidation state of Mn in particulate material sampled from the region of Mn removal was 2.3–2.7, and electron micrographs revealed structures characteristic of bacterially formed Mn precipitates. Radiotracer experiments utilizing ⁵⁴Mn(II) indicated that removal of Mn from solution in the region of active uptake was substantially blocked by a poison mixture, demonstrating that Mn(II) binding to particulates is catalyzed by bacteria in this environment.     

Plagiogranites as late-stage immiscible liquids in ophiolite and mid-ocean ridge suites: An experimental study

Chemical studies of two ophiolite suites and of selected mid-oceanic rift (MOR) regions indicate the presence of certain magmatic compositions: basalt, Fe-enriched basalt, and sodium granite (plagiogranite). There is a notable lack of evidence for melts of intermediate composition (i.e. 50–60 wt.% SiO₂). To determine possible relationships between basic rocks (basalts and gabbros) and acidic rocks (plagiogranites) a primitive basalt was fractionated at low pressure, under anhydrous conditions, and at different oxygen fugacities near the iron-wustite buffer and slightly above the quartz-fayalite-magnetite buffer. Samples of this basalt were taken to slightly above liquidus temperatures and then cooled at rates ranging from 1 to 2°C/hr. A liquid line of descent characterized by an Fe enrichment was delineated by quenching these experiments from a final temperature in the range of 1200 to 1000°C and analyzing the residual liquid (glass). After 95% crystallization of olivine, plagioclase, calcium pyroxene, and ilmenite, the residual liquid was an Fe-enriched basalt. This Fe-enriched basalt became immiscible at a temperature of about 1010°C. The immiscible phases produced were a more Fe-enriched basaltic liquid and a granitic liquid. The granitic liquid is similar in composition to the naturally occurring plagiogranites found in small volumes in ophiolites and in certain MOR regions. It is therefore concluded that silicate liquid immiscibility could be the petrogenetic process responsible for producing plagiogranite in some MOR regions and in some ophiolites. On the other hand, plagiogranites in ophiolites and MOR rock suites having andesitic and dacitic composition rocks may have evolved under conditions more closely approximating equilibrium crystallization and/or they may have evolved at high water pressures. The available experimental data suggest that amphibole would crystallize early and yield SiO₂-enriched liquids at depths greater than 4.5 km for P_H2O's in the range 0.6–1.0 P_total.The major problem in interpreting any of the natural plagiogranites as products of silicate liquid immiscibility is the fact that neither the Fe-enriched conjugate liquid or its crystalline equivalent has been described in the ophiolite or MOR literature. The identification of this Fe-rich conjugate magma is essential in any rock suite if a completely convincing case for silicate liquid immiscibility is to be made.     

Estuarine Habitat and Demographic Factors Affect Juvenile Chinook (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Oncorhynchus tshawytscha</Emphasis>) Growth Variability in a Large Freshwater Tidal Estuary

Estuarine rearing has been shown to enhance within watershed biocomplexity and support growth and survival for juvenile salmon (Oncorhynchus sp.). However, less is known about how growth varies across different types of wetland habitats and what explains this variability in growth. We focused on the estuarine habitat use of Columbia River Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), which are listed under the Endangered Species Act. We employed a generalized linear model (GLM) to test three hypotheses: (1) juvenile Chinook growth was best explained by temporal factors, (2) habitat, or (3) demographic characteristics, such as stock of origin. This study examined estuarine growth rate, incorporating otolith microstructure, individual assignment to stock of origin, GIS habitat mapping, and diet composition along ~130 km of the upper Columbia River estuary. Juvenile Chinook grew on average 0.23 mm/day in the freshwater tidal estuary. When compared to other studies in the basin our growth estimates from the freshwater tidal estuary were similar to estimates in the brackish estuary, but ~4 times slower than those in the plume and upstream reservoirs. However, previous survival studies elucidated a possible tradeoff between growth and survival in the Columbia River basin. Our GLM analysis found that variation in growth was best explained by habitat and an interaction between fork length and month of capture. Juvenile Chinook salmon captured in backwater channel habitats and later in the summer (mid-summer and late summer/fall subyearlings) grew faster than salmon from other habitats and time periods. These findings present a unique example of the complexity of understanding the influences of the many processes that generate variation in growth rate for juvenile anadromous fish inhabiting estuaries.     

Thecamoebians in Lake Winnipeg: a tool for Holocene paleolimnology

Holocene sediments in Lake Winnipeg are expressed in the lower Lake Agassiz sequence which is unconformably overlain by the Lake Winnipeg sequence. Nine sites, covering the North and South basins and the connecting Narrows, were selected for analysis of Holocene changes in thecamoebian faunae. Only the Lake Winnipeg sequence contains thecamoebians. This study indicates that biologic productivity and consequently the type of organic material in the sediments is the main control on thecamoebian taxa in Lake Winnipeg. Other factors controlling the distribution of thecamoebians are water chemistry and turbidity. Inorganic sediment geochemistry and water temperature do not appear to significantly influence the thecamoebian fauna of Lake Winnipeg. Variations in the abundance of key thecamoebian species along a north-south transect divide Lake Winnipeg into three distinct areas. The North Basin has remained relatively unchanged since the retreat of Lake Agassiz as indicated by the domination of Difflugia manicata throughout its history. This species appears to prefer Cyanophyta and diatoms as its food source. In the Narrows harsh conditions created by turbid waters and lack of algal food taxa result in Centropyxis aculeata replacing Difflugia manicata as the dominant species. In the South Basin three thecamoebian assemblages are recognized. Cucurbitella tricuspis, indicative of eutrophic conditions, dominates the most recent sediments of the South Basin. The underlying sediments are characterized by Difflugia globulus. In Lake Winnipeg this species is not a cold climate (arctic) indicator as suggested elsewhere but instead seems to prefer sediments containing green and yellow-green algal material. A Centropyxis-Arcella Assemblage occurs only at the base of the southernmost core where it is indicative of an early phase of hyposaline conditions as developed in shallow pools during the southward transgression of Lake Winnipeg. This study illustrates the usefulness of thecamoebians as paleolimnological indicators. Environmental changes are more significant in the restricted South Basin resulting in distinct thecamoebian assemblages. In contrast, the North Basin provided a stable environment throughout the late Holocene reflected in only subtle faunal changes.     

Coral Transplantation: A Useful Management Tool or Misguided Meddling?

The primary objectives of coral transplantation are to improve reef ‘quality' in terms of live coral cover, biodiversity and topographic complexity. Stated reasons for transplanting corals have been to: (1) accelerate reef recovery after ship groundings, (2) replace corals killed by sewage, thermal effluents or other pollutants, (3) save coral communities or locally rare species threatened by pollution, land reclamation or pier construction, (4) accelerate recovery of reefs after damage by Crown-of-thorns starfish or red tides, (5) aid recovery of reefs following dynamite fishing or coral quarrying, (6) mitigate damage caused by tourists engaged in water-based recreational activities, and (7) enhance the attractiveness of underwater habitat in tourism areas. Whether coral transplantation is likely to be effective from a biological standpoint depends on, among other factors, the water quality, exposure, and degree of substrate consolidation of the receiving area. Whether it is necessary (apart from cases related to reason 3 above), depends primarily on whether the receiving area is failing to recruit naturally.

The potential benefits and dis-benefits of coral transplantation are examined in the light of the results of research on both coral transplantation and recruitment with particular reference to a 4.5 year study in the Maldives. We suggest that in general, unless receiving areas are failing to recruit juvenile corals, natural recovery processes are likely to be sufficient in the medium to long term and that transplantation should be viewed as a tool of last resort. We argue that there has been too much focus on transplanting fast-growing branching corals, which in general naturally recruit well but tend to survive transplantation and re-location relatively poorly, to create short-term increases in live coral cover, at the expense of slow-growing massive corals, which generally survive transplantation well but often recruit slowly. In those cases where transplantation is justified, we advocate that a reversed stance, which focuses on early addition of slowly recruiting massive species to the recovering community, rather than a short-term and sometimes short-lived increase in coral cover, may be more appropriate in many cases.     

Groundwater biofilm dynamics grown in situ along a nutrient gradient

This paper describes the in situ response of groundwater biofilms in an alluvial gravel aquifer system on the Canterbury Plains, New Zealand. Biofilms were developed on aquifer gravel, encased in fine mesh bags and suspended in protective columns in monitoring wells for at least 20 weeks. Four sites were selected in the same groundwater system where previous analyses indicated a gradient of increasing nitrate down the hydraulic gradient from Sites 1 to 4. Measurements during the current study classified the groundwater as oligotrophic. Biofilm responses to the nutrient gradients were assessed using bioassays, with biomass determined using protein and cellular and nucleic acid staining and biofilm activity using enzyme assays for lipid, carbohydrate, phosphate metabolism, and cell viability. In general, biofilm activity decreased as nitrate levels increased from Sites 1 to 4, with the opposite relationship for carbon and phosphorus concentrations. These results showed that the groundwater system supported biofilm growth and that the upper catchment supported efficient and productive biofilms (high ratio of activity per unit biomass).     

Recent advances in offshore geotechnics for deep water oil and gas developments

The paper presents an overview of recent developments in geotechnical analysis and design associated with oil and gas developments in deep water. Typically the seabed in deep water comprises soft, lightly overconsolidated, fine grained sediments, which must support a variety of infrastructure placed on the seabed or anchored to it. A particular challenge is often the mobility of the infrastructure either during installation or during operation, and the consequent disturbance and healing of the seabed soil, leading to changes in seabed topography and strength. Novel aspects of geotechnical engineering for offshore facilities in these conditions are reviewed, including: new equipment and techniques to characterise the seabed; yield function approaches to evaluate the capacity of shallow skirted foundations; novel anchoring systems for moored floating facilities; pipeline and steel catenary riser interaction with the seabed; and submarine slides and their impact on infrastructure. Example results from sophisticated physical and numerical modelling are presented.