A place-based model for understanding community resilience to natural disasters

There is considerable research interest on the meaning and measurement of resilience from a variety of research perspectives including those from the hazards/disasters and global change communities. The identification of standards and metrics for measuring disaster resilience is one of the challenges faced by local, state, and federal agencies, especially in the United States. This paper provides a new framework, the disaster resilience of place (DROP) model, designed to improve comparative assessments of disaster resilience at the local or community level. A candidate set of variables for implementing the model are also presented as a first step towards its implementation.     

Spatial and temporal variation in climate change: a bird’s eye view

Recent changes in global climate have dramatically altered worldwide temperatures and the corresponding timing of seasonal climate conditions. Recognizing the degree to which species respond to changing climates is therefore an area of increasing conservation concern as species that are unable to respond face increased risk of extinction. Here we examine spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the rate of climate change across western North America and discuss the potential for conditions to arise that may limit the ability of western migratory birds to adapt to changing climates. Based on 52 years of climate data, we show that changes in temperature and precipitation differ significantly between spring migration habitats in the desert southwest and breeding habitats throughout western North America. Such differences may ultimately increase costs to individual birds and thereby threaten the long-term population viability of many species.     

Chalcopyrite dissolution rate laws

Meta-analysis of 173 rate measurements from 21 publications was used to develop rate laws for chalcopyrite dissolution under environmentally relevant conditions. Multiple linear regression analysis of 28 data for nonoxidative chalcopyrite dissolution in the presence of O₂ and Cl⁻ produced the following rate law:     

Hurricane Katrina storm surge delineation: implications for future storm surge forecasts and warnings

The storm surge in coastal Mississippi caused by Hurricane Katrina was unprecedented in the region. The height and geographic extent of the storm surge came as a surprise to many and exceeded pre-impact surge scenarios based on SLOSH models that were the basis for emergency preparedness and local land use decision-making. This paper explores the spatial accuracy of three interpolated storm surge surfaces derived from post-event reconnaissance data by comparing the interpolation results to a specific SLOSH run. The findings are used to suggest improvements in the calibration of existing pre-event storm surge models such as SLOSH. Finally, the paper provides some suggestions on an optimal surge forecast map that could enhance the communication of storm surge risks to the public.     

Potential risks to freshwater resources as a result of leakage from CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> geological storage: a batch-reaction experiment

In assessing the feasibility of widespread deployment of CO₂ geological storage, it is prudent to first assess potential consequences of an error or accident that could lead to CO₂ leakage into groundwater resources above a sequestration interval. Information about the sensitivity of the groundwater system to introduction of CO₂ is needed in order to design groundwater monitoring program. A laboratory-batch experiment was conducted to explore the range of CO₂ impact on groundwater quality of a spectrum of representative aquifers, in the Gulf Coast region, USA. Results show that CO₂ elevated concentrations of many cations within hours or days. Two types of cations were recognized according to their concentration trends. Type I cations—Ca, Mg, Si, K, Sr, Mn, Ba, Co, B, Zn—rapidly increased following initial CO₂ flux and reached stable concentrations before the end of the experiment. Type II cations—Fe, Al, Mo, U, V, As, Cr, Cs, Rb, Ni and Cu—increased at the start of CO₂ flux, but declined, in most cases, to levels lower than pre-CO₂ concentrations. Dissolution of dolomite and calcite caused the largest increase in concentrations for Ca, Mg, Mn, Ba and Sr. Cation release rates decreased linearly as pH increased during mineral buffering. Experiment results suggest that carbonate minerals are the dominant contributor of changes in groundwater quality. Risk assessments of potential degradation of groundwater and monitoring strategies should focus on these fast-reacting minerals. Mobilization risk of Type II cations, however, may be self-mitigated because adsorption occurs when pH rebounds.     

Saturn's icy satellites investigated by Cassini-VIMS: I. Full-disk properties: 350-5100 nm reflectance spectra and phase curves

Saturn's icy satellites are among the main scientific objectives of the Cassini-VIMS (Visual and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer) experiment. This paper contains a first systematic and comparative analysis of the full-disk spectral properties of Dione, Enceladus, Epimetheus, Hyperion, Iapetus, Mimas, Phoebe, Rhea and Tethys as observed by VIMS from July 2004 to June 2005. The disk integrated properties (350-5100 nm reflectance spectra and phase curves at 550-2232 nm) and images of satellites are reported and discussed in detail together with the observed geometry. In general, the spectra in the visible spectral range are almost featureless and can be classified according to the spectral slopes: from the bluish Enceladus and Phoebe to the redder Iapetus, Hyperion and Epimetheus. In the 1000-1300 nm range the spectra of Enceladus, Tethys, Mimas and Rhea are characterized by a negative slope, consistent with a surface largely dominated by water ice, while the spectra of Iapetus, Hyperion and Phoebe show a considerable reddening pointing out the relevant role played by darkening materials present on the surface. In between these two classes are Dione and Epimetheus, which have a flat spectrum in this range. The main absorption bands identified in the infrared are the 1520, 2020, 3000 nm H₂O/OH bands (for all satellites), although Iapetus dark terrains show mostly a deep 3000 nm band while the 1520 and 2020 nm bands are very faint. In this spectral range, the Iapetus spectrum is characterized by a strong reddening. The CO₂ band at 4260 nm and the Fresnel ice peak around 3100 nm are evident only on Hyperion, Phoebe and Iapetus. The phase curves at 550 and at 2232 nm are reported for all the available observations in the 0°-144° range; Rhea shows an opposition surge at visible wavelengths in the 0.5°-1.17° interval. The improvement on the retrieval of the full-disk reflectance spectra can be appreciated by a direct comparison with ground-based telescopic data available from literature. Finally, data processing strategies and recent upgrades introduced in the VIMS-V calibration pipeline (flat-field and destriping-despiking algorithm) are discussed in appendices.     

Health profiles of Hamilton: Spatial characterisation of neighbourhoods for health investigations

This paper is part of a larger research program which employs a mixed-methods approach to study the determinants of health at the local level using specific neighborhoods in Hamilton, Ontario, Canada. In this paper, multivariate, spatial statistical techniques and geographic information systems are used to address questions about the characterization of neighbourhoods, based on socioeconomic determinants of health and risk factors such as smoking. While neighbourhood characterization has been a component of public health surveillance for some time, geostatistical techniques can now be used to derive more accurate representation of neighbourhoods for use in subsequent analysis. We utilize principal components analysis to reduce the data and extract the components that represent the underlying local processes. Principal components are also overlayed on comparative mortality figures to visualize where the socio-demographic determinants of health correspond spatially with mortality patterns. Predicted values from the components are then analysed for spatial clustering using local indicators of spatial association. The findings reveal a pattern of distinct neighbourhoods that will be used in subsequent quantitative and qualitative stages in the larger research programme. The results can also be used to inform public health policy and to target public health interventions.     

Clast Fabric in Relict Periglacial Colluvium, Salamanca Re-Entrant, Southwestern New York, USA

Samples of macrofabric data obtained from colluvial deposits near the late-Wisconsinan glacial margin display widely divergent characteristics. Those from highly weathered and jointed sandstone plot as girdle distributions. Samples from red colluvium of early-Wisconsinan age form moderately strong clusters. Fabrics from shallow depth in medium-textured brown colluvium of late-Wisconsinan age generally have modes aligned with the local slope but are weak, and appear to have been modified by frost heaving. Clasts in the basal layers of an overlying loess unit were emplaced by frost heaving from the brown colluvium and have very weak or uniform fabrics. Particle shape exerts an influence on fabric strength in the brown colluvium, with samples composed of more elongated clasts displaying stronger fabrics. Fabrics from near-surface deposits show generally weaker shape and strength characteristics and higher inclinations than those at depth. Calculated seasonal frost penetration is consistent with the depth to which weaker, more steeply inclined fabrics are found. Sampling in relict periglacial deposits should be performed only below the level of disturbance by seasonal frost.     

A time-series study of the spring bloom at the Bering Sea ice edge I. Physical processes, chlorophyll and nutrient chemistry

An intense but short-lived phytoplankton bloom develops in the low-salinity melt waters at the edge of the Bering Sea ice as the ice melts and retreats each spring. In spring 1988 we followed the development of this bloom by sampling every 3 h while following a freely drifting drogue in the marginal ice-edge zone for two four-day periods. The first period (29 April–3 May) was at an early stage of the bloom while the second period (10–13 May) was at the peak of the bloom. Early in the bloom, the phytoplankton consumed all the nitrate (400 mmoles m⁻²) initially present in the surface water producing large accumulations of particulate carbon (>1000 mmoles C m⁻²). By the time of peak chlorophyll concentrations (35 mg M⁻³), nitrate concentrations had been depleted so that the sustained high productivity depended on either recycled or imported nutrients. After this point, there was little net additional accumulation of biomass. From these data plus cruise data from previous years, we find that the Bering Sea ice-edge bloom typically begins in the last week of April and appears to precede blooms in the adjacent ice-free waters by days to weeks. The variability in bloom onset observed over several years is not linked very closely to the large scale climatic variations found in this region, but rather appears to be related to local weather during the end of April and the first part of May, with calm, sunny weather being required to initiate the blooms.     

Groundwater transport of crater-lake brine at Poa´s Volcano, Costa Rica

Poa´s Volcano is an active stratovolcano in Costa Rica that has a lake in its active crater. The crater lake has high temperatures (50–90 °C), high acidity (pH ≈ 0.0), and a high dissolved-solids content (100 g/kg). The volcano has numerous freshwater springs on its flanks, but a few on the northwestern flank are highly acidic (pH = 1.6–2.5) and have high dissolved-solids concentrations (2–22 g/kg). This study analyzes the regional groundwater system at Poa´s and demonstrates the likelihood that the water discharging from the acidic springs in the Rio Agrio watershed originates at the acidic crater lake. Both heat and solute transport are analyzed on a regional scale through numerical simulations using the HST3D finite-difference model, which solves the coupled equations for fluid flow, heat transport, and solute transport. The code allows fluid viscosity and density to be functions of both temperature and solute concentration. The simulations use estimates for recharge to the mountain and a range of values and various distributions of permeability and porosity. Several sensitivity analyses are performed to test how the uncertainty in many of the model parameters affects the simulation results. These uncertainties yield an estimated range of travel times from the crater lake to the Rio Agrio springs of 1–30 years, which is in close agreement with the results of tritium analyses of the springs. Calculated groundwater fluxes into and out of the crater lake are both about several hundred kg/s. These fluxes must be accounted for in water budgets of the crater lake.